Game 4 is at Frost Bank Center on Sunday, May 24, at 8:00 p.m. ET. The Spurs are down 2-1 against the Thunder after losing Game 3, 123-108. This is the pressure game for the Spurs. A win ties the series. A loss sends them back to the Thunder down 3-1.
Game 3 was a bad sign for the Spurs because the start was perfect. They opened the game with a 15-0 run and still lost by 15. The Thunder won the bench points 76-30, the largest bench scoring total in a Conference Finals game since 1970-71. Through three games, the Thunder bench has 183 points, the most by any team’s bench through the first three games of a Conference Finals series.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had 36 points in Game 3. Jared McCain added 24 off the bench. Victor Wembanyama had 26 points, but only four rebounds. De’Aaron Fox returned and gave the Spurs 15 points, seven rebounds, and six assists in 31 minutes. Dylan Harper also returned, but played only 17 minutes and had six points.
Injury Report
Spurs
No players listed.
Thunder
Jalen Williams: Questionable (left hamstring soreness)
Ajay Mitchell: Out (right calf strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
De’Aaron Fox and Dylan Harper are available for Game 4 after playing through injuries in Game 3. Ajay Mitchell is out after re-aggravating his calf injury in Game 3. Jalen Williams remains questionable after missing Game 3.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs have the best interior player in the series. Wembanyama is still the main reason they can tie this series. Through the first three games, he has had a 41-point, 24-rebound Game 1, a 21-point, 17-rebound Game 2, and a 26-point Game 3. The Thunder have size, but they do not have one defender who can play him straight for 40 minutes.
The problem in Game 3 was rebounding and support. Wembanyama cannot finish with four rebounds in a home playoff game. The Spurs were already losing the bench battle, and that made every empty possession worse. If Wembanyama controls the glass closer to his first two games, the Spurs can slow the Thunder’s pace and keep the game in the half-court.
Fox being available matters. He was not explosive in Game 3, but 15 points, seven rebounds, and six assists after missing the first two games is useful. Game 4 needs more rim pressure from him. If Fox gets into the paint, the Thunder have to pull help away from Wembanyama and Devin Vassell. If Fox only manages the game, the Spurs become too easy to load up against.
The Spurs also need Vassell to stay aggressive. He scored 22 points in Game 2 and has been one of their more stable perimeter scorers in the playoffs. With Harper not fully right, Vassell cannot disappear. The Spurs need 18-22 points from him, plus enough defense to keep Gilgeous-Alexander from walking into the middle.
The Game 4 number is simple: bench production. The Spurs lost those minutes by 46 points in Game 3. That is not survivable. Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Luke Kornet, and Harper have to give enough scoring and physical play to keep Wembanyama’s minutes from carrying everything.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The Thunder have the advantage because they are winning the depth battle by a huge margin. They lost Williams and now Mitchell, but the rotation keeps producing. Caruso scored 31 in Game 1. McCain scored 24 in Game 3. Cason Wallace, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins, and Hartenstein have all given useful minutes. That is why the Thunder can survive injury issues better than the Spurs.
Gilgeous-Alexander is also starting to control the series. He had 24 points and 12 assists in Game 1, 30 points and nine assists in Game 2, then 36 points in Game 3. The Spurs have length, but they have not stopped his pace changes. He is getting to the line, getting to the middle, and forcing Wembanyama to defend multiple actions before the shot.
Hartenstein’s role has changed the series. He barely mattered in Game 1, then had 10 points and 13 rebounds in Game 2. That gave the Thunder a stronger frontcourt look against Wembanyama. Holmgren can play more in space, Hartenstein can handle contact, and the Thunder do not have to ask one big to take every hit.
McCain is the new pressure point. His 24 points in Game 3 were not empty. They changed the bench minutes and gave the Thunder another shot creator while Williams was out, and Mitchell got hurt. If McCain gives them even 14-16 points in Game 4, the Spurs will need a much better bench game to stay even.
The Thunder also have the cleaner series trend. They lost Game 1 in double overtime, then won Game 2 by nine and Game 3 by 15. The margin has moved their way. The Spurs need to break that pattern at home.
X-Factors
Dylan Harper is the Spurs’ first X-factor. He had 24 points, 11 rebounds, six assists, and seven steals in Game 1. Since the adductor issue, he has not looked the same. In Game 3, he had six points in 17 minutes. The Spurs need more. If Harper gives them 14-16 points, ball pressure, and better guard creation, Game 4 changes.
Keldon Johnson has to win bench minutes. The Thunder bench has destroyed the Spurs bench in the series. Johnson does not need to score 25, but he has to provide force. The Spurs need his drives, transition scoring, and rebounding. If he is quiet, the Thunder’s second unit controls the game again.
Jared McCain is the Thunder’s biggest Game 4 X-factor. He scored 24 points in Game 3 and became only the second Thunder player with 20-plus points off the bench in a playoff game before turning 23, joining James Harden. If he keeps giving the Thunder big scoring, Williams and Mitchell absences become easier to cover.
Cason Wallace gets a bigger stage because Mitchell is out. Wallace is expected to start Game 4. He averaged 8.1 points through 11 playoff games before this spot. His job is simple: defend, avoid mistakes, and make open shots. If Wallace gives the Thunder 10 points and strong defense, they are fine.
Prediction
The Spurs should respond better than they did in Game 3. Wembanyama should rebound more, Fox should be better in his second game back, and the home floor gives them a real chance to tie the series.
Still, the Thunder have the safer profile. Gilgeous-Alexander is controlling the ball, the bench has been much better, and the Thunder have already won two different types of games in this series. Williams’ status matters, but their depth has covered every injury so far.
Prediction: Thunder 114, Spurs 109
