The San Antonio Spurs host the Oklahoma City Thunder at Frost Bank Center on December 23, and yeah, this one already feels like a mini-playoff game in December.
The Spurs are 21-7 and sitting second in the West, while the Thunder are 26-3 and holding the No. 1 seed.
They’ve already played, and it got real. The Spurs beat the Thunder 111-109 on December 13 in Las Vegas, snapping a massive Thunder winning streak and setting the tone for this two-game set that wraps on Christmas Day.
Star-wise, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been on an MVP heater at 32.5 points per game, and he’s the engine of everything the Thunder do.
For the Spurs, Victor Wembanyama has carried the load at 24.4 points, 12.3 rebounds, and 3.3 blocks per game, with De’Aaron Fox adding 22.4 points per game as the other guy who can bend a defense.
Injury Report
Spurs
Harrison Ingram: Out (G League, two-way)
David Jones Garcia: Out (G League, two-way)
Stanley Umude: Out (G League, two-way)
Victor Wembanyama: Questionable (left calf, injury management)
Thunder
Ousmane Dieng: Out (right calf strain)
Ajay Mitchell: Out (concussion protocol)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL surgical recovery)
Nikola Topic: Out (surgical recovery)
Jaylin Williams: Out (right heel bursitis)
Aaron Wiggins: Questionable (right adductor strain)
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
This starts with the setting and the rhythm they’ve built at home. The Spurs are 10-2 in their building, and they’re riding a six-game winning streak, which is basically the perfect mix of confidence and urgency.
The second part is matchup comfort. They just beat this team, and it wasn’t some fluky shooting night where everything went in. They won a tight game because they executed late and didn’t blink when the moment got loud. That matters against a Thunder group that usually steamrolls teams with runs.
Tactically, the Spurs’ best chance is forcing a half-court fight and turning the game into a possession-by-possession grind. They’ve been a legitimate defensive team this season, sitting top five in defensive rating, which gives them a real floor even when the offense gets choppy.
And if Wembanyama plays, the entire geometry changes. The Spurs can switch more, protect the rim without overhelping, and live with contested jumpers instead of constant paint collapses. That’s how you keep the Thunder from turning five good minutes into a 17-2 avalanche.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The Thunder have the cleanest “numbers win” profile in the league right now. They’re fifth in offensive rating, first in defensive rating, and first in net rating. That’s not a small edge, that’s separation.
Their defense is the real problem for the Spurs because it isn’t just stopping shots, it’s forcing bad decisions. The Thunder also have the best turnover percentage in the NBA, which basically means they don’t beat themselves. That’s the killer trait on the road, because you can survive cold stretches when you aren’t handing out free points.
There’s also a style advantage: the Thunder can win fast or slow. Their pace sits in the top 10, but they don’t need to sprint to control a game because the defense travels and the shot quality stays consistent.
And even with a couple guys out, their depth still shows up. They just handled business in their last game by forcing a ton of turnovers and cashing them into points, which is basically their personality when they’re locked in.
Spurs vs. Thunder Prediction
This feels like it’s going to be close again, especially if Wembanyama suits up and the Spurs keep it physical. But the Thunder’s defensive floor is ridiculous, and they’re just harder to knock off for 48 minutes.
Prediction: Thunder 116, Spurs 110
