The Oklahoma City Thunder just turned the Phoenix Suns into a scrimmage. They are 24-1 after a 138-89 demolition in the NBA Cup quarterfinals, riding a 16-game winning streak and posting a net rating of +17.5 that is blowing past what the 1995 Bulls and 2016 Warriors did over a full season.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing like a back-to-back MVP, averaging 32.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.5 assists on 56.2% from the field. Chet Holmgren is at 18.8 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 58.1% shooting. Jalen Williams adds 17.3 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 6.2 assists.
This is not a hot streak. This looks like the best team in basketball by a mile. So the natural question becomes: when do they finally lose again?
Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale just tried to answer that.
Dan Favale Circles One Game As OKC’s Next Loss
Favale wrote an entire breakdown titled “Thunder Are Entering ’95 Bulls & 73-Win Warriors Territory…When Will They Lose Next?” going matchup by matchup through the upcoming schedule. His basic vibe: nobody is touching the Thunder for a while.
He has them winning the NBA Cup semifinal against the San Antonio Spurs, winning the NBA Cup final against either the New York Knicks or the Orlando Magic, then ripping through a long homestand and road swing.
Favale’s only real warning sign lives on January 2, when the Thunder visit the Golden State Warriors. After walking through every other opponent, he ends that section with a simple line:
“Verdict: This will be OKC’s second loss of the season. I think. Maybe.”
That is the bold prediction. No slip-ups against the Spurs, no letdown against a mid-season trap team. According to Favale, the next Thunder loss happens only when they walk into Chase Center.
Let’s walk through that road to the Bay and see how realistic that sounds.
Game-By-Game: Who Actually Has A Shot To Beat This Team?
December 13 vs. Spurs (NBA Cup Semifinal)
The Spurs just knocked the Lakers out of the Cup and could have Victor Wembanyama back on the floor. De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle, and Dylan Harper give them speed, on-ball creation, and some chaos.
But this version of the Thunder is basically built to erase young teams still figuring themselves out. They switch, they swarm, they turn every mistake into SGA in transition. Unless Wembanyama walks in looking like peak Hakeem for 40 minutes, this still feels like a Thunder win.
December 16 vs. Knicks/Magic (NBA Cup Final)
Knicks and Magic both defend, both play hard, both have size. Either matchup would be fun. But you are asking a group that just won the 2025 title, with SGA in full superstar control and Holmgren destroying spacing at both ends, to lose a neutral-site Cup final to a team still learning how to win deep playoff games.
Favale gives the Thunder the trophy. Hard to argue.
December 18 vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Favale basically treats this one like free money. The Clippers have been a mess all season, sitting near the bottom of the West and still trying to figure out what they are post-Kawhi.
The Thunder, meanwhile, already own their future draft picks and will happily bury them again while juicing the lottery odds of that 2026 pick. This is another clear Thunder W.
December 19 @ Minnesota Timberwolves
This is where it starts to get tricky. The Minnesota Timberwolves are one of those “they play to the level of the opponent” teams, and on paper, they can throw Anthony Edwards, Julius Randle, and Rudy Gobert at you in waves.
But the Thunder have the exact defensive archetypes to handle it. Holmgren can roam off Gobert and wreck drives, Jalen Williams and Lu Dort can take turns on Edwards, and OKC’s offense is relentless at attacking slow-footed big lineups. Favale still gives the verdict to the Thunder, and I’m with him.
December 22 vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Favale’s write-up for this one is basically “LOL, nah” at the idea of the Grizzlies pulling the upset. They are scrapping, but are nowhere near their peak version and do not have the offensive firepower to hang with a team that leads the league in scoring and efficiency.
December 23 @ Spurs
Second night of a back-to-back, on the road, against Wembanyama again. This is a classic schedule loss spot. Favale still leans Thunder because the Spurs’ core has barely played together and is still in “beta mode,” as he puts it.
This is probably the first game I’d circle as a real danger. If Mark Daigneault sits somebody or the legs finally look heavy, this could absolutely be loss number two. But if OKC plays everyone, their system and continuity should still win out.
December 25 vs. Spurs
Christmas in OKC. National TV. A chance to flex in front of everybody. The Thunder have been blowing teams out at Paycom Center and are winning home games by close to 20 points per night.
Yes, home-and-home sets are weird. No, this does not feel like the spot where a locked-in Thunder group drops its first home game of the year.
December 28 vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Tyrese Maxey is having an All-NBA level year, and the 76ers have become one of the league’s most entertaining offenses when everyone is healthy. The problem is “when everyone is healthy” almost never happens. Their lineups are small, their injury reports are long, and they simply do not have the size and depth to withstand the Thunder’s pressure for 48 minutes.
Another OKC edge.
December 29 vs. Atlanta Hawks
Second night of a back-to-back again. Favale points out that Oklahoma City’s only loss so far came on the second leg of one, against the Portland Trail Blazers in early November.
The Hawks’ offense has looked rough against top-tier defenses, and the Thunder already made them look bad once this season. Unless both SGA and Holmgren are resting, this feels more like a “they survive late” kind of win than a real upset spot.
December 31 vs. Portland Trail Blazers
If you think this team forgot the one loss on its record, you have not watched them all year. The Blazers already got them once, and the Thunder have spent the rest of the season taking that personally. Favale has them turning New Year’s Eve into a grudge match blowout, and that tracks.
By the time that final buzzer sounds, his model has the Thunder sitting at 33-1, riding a nine-game heater since the Suns rout.
Why The Warriors Are The Danger Team
So we end up here: January 2, at the Warriors.
Golden State is only 13-12 and sitting eighth in the West, but that record hides how annoying they can still be in a one-off game when Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler both have it going.
The Warriors have already seen the Thunder twice, have a ton of institutional knowledge, and will be coming off a softer New Year’s Eve matchup against the Charlotte Hornets, not a revenge game against the Trail Blazers.
Favale leans into the human side of it: young Thunder players celebrating New Year’s on the West Coast, dragging a little on January 2, while an older Warriors group treats it like a mini-Game 7.
Do I totally buy it? Honestly, no. With the way SGA is controlling games and the way this defense is wired, I still think Thunder-over-Warriors is the more logical call even on tired legs.
But if you follow Favale’s logic, it adds up: The Thunder are simply better than every team they face between now and then. The schedule only really tilts against them once they hit that back-to-back in San Antonio or the emotional high of hammering Portland on New Year’s Eve.
The first opponent with the talent, experience, and coaching to actually punish even a small drop in OKC’s intensity is the Warriors.
So in his scenario, the answer to “When will the Oklahoma City Thunder lose their next game?” is very specific: they run off nine more wins, roll into Chase Center at 33-1, and finally take loss number two against the Warriors to fall to 33-2.
If that is how this plays out, we are talking about one of the most ridiculous starts to a season in NBA history, even with a loss in the Bay.
And if the Thunder walk into Golden State and handle business anyway? Then we might need to stop asking when they will lose and start asking whether anyone is capable of stopping them at all this year.
