The Trail Blazers host the Spurs in Game 4 at Moda Center on Sunday, April 26, at 3:30 p.m. ET. The Spurs lead the first-round series 2-1 after taking Game 3, 120-108, while the Trail Blazers need a response to avoid falling into a 3-1 hole. The matchup is already clear through three games: the Spurs have been steadier late, while the Trail Blazers have needed big individual shot-making to stay close.
The series margins show the gap. With Victor Wembanyama in danger of missing another clash, Stephon Castle leads the Spurs with 22.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.7 assists per game, while Deni Avdija leads the Trail Blazers with 21.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 5.7 assists.
Game 3 was the series in one night. The Trail Blazers led by 15, scored 65 points in the first half, then fell apart after halftime. The Spurs won the second half 61-43, shot 16-of-33 from three, grabbed 50 rebounds, and got 60 combined points from Castle and Dylan Harper, who scored 27 points and added 10 rebounds.
Injury Report
Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard: Out (left Achilles tendon injury management)
Spurs
Victor Wembanyama: Questionable (concussion protocol)
Jordan McLaughlin: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Why The Trail Blazers Have The Advantage
The Trail Blazers still have the guard play to make this a series. Scoot Henderson is averaging 23.3 points, 2.0 rebounds, and 1.3 assists while shooting 26-of-46 from the field and 12-of-23 from three. That is 56.5% from the field and 52.2% from deep. He has been their most explosive scorer, with 18 points in Game 1, 31 in Game 2, and 21 in Game 3.
Jrue Holiday also gives the Trail Blazers a second playoff-level organizer. He is averaging 18.0 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 8.3 assists in the series. His Game 3 line was excellent: 29 points, six rebounds, five assists, and four steals on 12-of-18 shooting and 5-of-9 from three. The issue is that the Trail Blazers wasted that game because the offense died after halftime.
The rebounding problem is real, but not hopeless. The Trail Blazers have been beaten 140-126 on the glass through three games, yet Donovan Clingan and Robert Williams have both held up. Clingan is averaging 6.7 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists. Williams is averaging 11.0 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 3.3 assists on 15-of-21 shooting. That frontcourt production is enough to keep them competitive if the guards keep scoring.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs have more reliable answers. They have outscored the Trail Blazers by 22 points through three games, and their shooting edge is the biggest reason. The Spurs are 46.3% from the field and 42.2% from three in the series. The Trail Blazers are 42.2% from the field and 38.0% from three. That is a major efficiency gap, especially because the Trail Blazers have taken 24 more threes but made only one fewer.
Stephon Castle has controlled long stretches. His Game 3 line was 33 points, two rebounds, five assists, and 10-of-11 from the line. For the series, he is at 22.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.7 assists, even though he is only shooting 21-of-51 from the field. That matters because he has still been getting to his spots and forcing fouls.
The Spurs also won Game 3 without Victor Wembanyama. That is the scary part for the Trail Blazers. Wembanyama had 35 points, five rebounds, and two blocks in Game 1, then left Game 2 after 11:41 because of the concussion issue. If he is cleared for Game 4, the Spurs add the best player in the series to a team that just scored 120 without him.
X-Factors
Jerami Grant has to give the Trail Blazers more. He is averaging only 7.7 points, 1.0 rebound, and no assists in the series while shooting 7-of-25 from the field. Game 3 was better, with 13 points on 4-of-11 shooting, but the Trail Blazers need more than one useful quarter from him. If Grant cannot punish smaller matchups or hit catch-and-shoot threes, the Spurs can load up on Henderson, Holiday, and Avdija.
Toumani Camara is another swing piece because his shooting has fallen off. He is averaging 6.7 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.0 assists while shooting 6-of-20 from the field and 4-of-14 from three. His Game 3 was rough: two points on 1-of-6 shooting. The Trail Blazers need his defense, but they cannot carry another low-efficiency wing if Avdija is also struggling from the field.
Dylan Harper changed the series in Game 3. He is averaging 14.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, but the full number is better than that because Game 3 showed his ceiling. Harper had 27 points, 10 rebounds, and three assists on 9-of-12 shooting and 4-of-5 from three. The Trail Blazers had no answer for his pace, and his bench scoring gave the Spurs the game’s best second-unit weapon.
Luke Kornet matters again if Wembanyama is limited. Kornet is averaging 11.3 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists while shooting 15-of-20 from the field in the series. He had 14 points, 10 rebounds, and two blocks in Game 3. That is exactly what the Spurs need from him: screens, rebounds, rim protection, and easy finishes.
Prediction
The Trail Blazers have enough shot-making to make Game 4 close, especially if Henderson and Holiday keep winning the guard matchup. But the Spurs have been better across the full series. They have the scoring edge, the rebounding edge, the better frontcourt depth, and now they know they can win without Wembanyama. If he plays, the gap gets larger. If he does not, the Spurs still have Castle, Harper, De’Aaron Fox, and enough size to survive.
Prediction: Spurs 114, Trail Blazers 108
