The NBA’s MVP race has always been more than just a numbers contest, and in 2025-26, it will come down to the wire. From perennial frontrunners who dominate headlines nightly to breakthrough stars forcing their way into the race, we are ready to see how the season unfolds.
To break down the race more clearly, it makes sense to rank the contenders by tiers, and we have divided the main contenders into six of them, starting with the favorites and ending with the dark horses.
Tier 1: Massive Favorites
Nikola Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Doncic
Nikola Jokic continues to sit atop the MVP mountain because he will likely average a triple-double again or at least come close. As the engine of the Denver Nuggets’ offense, Jokic’s ability to elevate teammates while stuffing box scores makes him the safest bet to dominate the race once again. If Denver finishes near the top of the West, and we anticipate it will be a top-three seed, his candidacy will be undeniable.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has transformed from breakout star to bona fide MVP-level superstar, capturing the award along with the scoring title last season. The Thunder’s rise into the Western Conference means SGA will have a ton of votes, especially if the team captures the first seed again. If SGA leads the NBA in scoring again, he will finish top two in MVP voting by default.
Luka Doncic has carried MVP expectations for many seasons, and the upcoming year may finally be the one where he comes through, since he is in the best shape of his career. A nightly triple-double threat with an ever-expanding scoring arsenal, Doncic has a chance to lead the NBA in scoring for the Los Angeles Lakers, and he fully takes over the throne from LeBron James; he has major MVP chances.
Tier 2: Major Contenders
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Edwards, Victor Wembanyama
Giannis Antetokounmpo remains the most physically dominant force in basketball, capable of swinging games on both ends of the floor better than anyone else. His MVP hopes will hinge on Milwaukee’s ability to finish with a top-four seed in the East, but his two-way dominance ensures he’ll never be far from the conversation. The only reason he isn’t in Tier 1 is because of how bad the Bucks team will be in comparison to the better sides, and that will hurt his votes.
Anthony Edwards is evolving into one of the NBA’s most complete young superstars, and he will increase his level to become the face of the league by hook or by crook. If Minnesota makes the leap into true contention, Edwards’ explosive scoring and improved playmaking could push him from highlight-machine to legitimate MVP threat.
Victor Wembanyama already looks like a generational talent, and he will be the favorite to win Defensive Player of the Year. But his MVP case may come down to how quickly the Spurs rise in the standings, because missing the postseason won’t help the Frenchman’s chances. We think Wemby will become a top-10 player by default, and that will boost his MVP odds.
Tier 3: Strong Chances
Cade Cunningham, Jalen Brunson, Donovan Mitchell, Paolo Banchero
Cade Cunningham is not only Detroit’s cornerstone but a steady floor general with the size, vision, and poise to control games. If the Pistons take a leap forward this season to a top-four seed, Cade’s leadership and production will give him a dark-horse shot at climbing the MVP ladder. There is a great chance Cade becomes the undisputed second-best point guard in the league behind Luka Doncic.
Jalen Brunson will make the Knicks a real Eastern Conference power, thriving under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden, and that helps his MVP chances. His clutch scoring and fearless demeanor have elevated New York’s ceiling, and if the Knicks surge into the top tier of the East, Brunson’s MVP stock will soar.
Donovan Mitchell remains one of the league’s premier scorers, and he guided the Cavaliers to the number one seed last season. A repeat of that will give him a major chance to win a major individual trophy. As long as his numbers impress voters, Mitchell’s offensive firepower will position him as the face of their success and a possible MVP candidate.
Paolo Banchero will return from injury to prove he is a bona fide superstar, blending size, strength, and skill with a polished offensive game. Orlando’s upward trajectory in the East boosts his case because we expect the Magic to capture a top-four seed if everything aligns well for them. Desmond Bane, Franz Wagner, and Jalen Suggs is the right supporting cast to lighten the load on Banchero.
Tier 4: In The Mix
Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, Evan Mobley, Jalen Williams, Karl-Anthony Towns
Kevin Durant will continue to defy age next season, scoring from all three levels and commanding respect as one of the league’s purest offensive weapons. His MVP chances depend heavily on his health and how far he takes the Rockets. If Houston is a top-two seed and Durant plays at least 68 games, he will likely move from Tier 4 to Tier 2. But we don’t think KD will play enough games, so we are just keeping him in the mix.
Stephen Curry remains the most dangerous shooter on the planet, and his favoritism among NBA voters will always be there. If Golden State finds new life in the standings once they sort out the Jonathan Kuminga situation, Curry’s transcendent impact could reignite his MVP campaign at 38 years old.
Evan Mobley is the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, making him central to Cleveland’s success. While his MVP case may be a year or two away, his growth into a two-way cornerstone gives him an outside shot if he takes a massive leap. Again, like his teammate Donovan Mitchell, Mobley’s chances will rely on how strong Cleveland’s record is.
Jalen Williams is Oklahoma City’s second star, and an All-NBA season means voters will keep the All-Star in mind next season. Williams will continue providing scoring, playmaking, and defensive versatility alongside SGA and, naturally, will get his respect if the Thunder are the number one seed.
Karl-Anthony Towns is one of the league’s most skilled bigs, capable of stretching defenses with his shooting while punishing mismatches inside. Jalen Brunson is the man in New York, but Towns could post another monster double-double season and receive his recognition.
Tier 5: Dark Horses
Joel Embiid, Jaylen Brown, Alperen Sengun, LaMelo Ball, Trae Young
Joel Embiid is always an MVP-caliber player when healthy, and he should be in Tier 1, quite frankly. But we know better. His durability will once again be the swing factor, but if he stays on the floor and Philly remains competitive, he could re-enter the conversation.
Jaylen Brown will be the man for the Celtics as Jayson Tatum recovers from an Achilles injury. If he carries Boston in stretches and produces career-best numbers, he could surprise voters by earning dark-horse MVP traction. However, we don’t think the Celtics will win enough games in a rebuild season.
Alperen Sengun has become Houston’s centerpiece in the paint, showcasing elite passing from the post and versatile scoring. If the Rockets break through as a top-two seed and outplay Kevin Durant, Sengun’s improving skill set will earn him a serious look as one of the league’s most unorthodox MVP candidates.
LaMelo Ball has the flair, creativity, and offensive engine to power Charlotte to a surprise season. His health and consistency are in question, but if he plays at least 70 games and enters the race for the scoring and assist title, he is a major dark horse because there aren’t many better offensive players.
Trae Young is still the league’s best assist-man, capable of torching defenses with elite offensive prowess. Atlanta will be a much better team in 2025-26 thanks to strong offseason moves, and Young has a chance to lead this team on and off the court for what could be the best season of his career.
