The Boston Celtics host the Miami Heat at TD Garden in a matchup that’s basically a mirror. Same tier, same urgency, and both teams living in the “we can beat anyone, but we can also randomly trip over ourselves” zone.
The Celtics are 15-11. The Heat are 15-12. They’re right next to each other in the East mix, and this game matters because neither team wants to spend the next month climbing out of the Play-In neighborhood.
Celtics fans already know the big storyline. Jayson Tatum remains out after his right Achilles repair, so the Celtics have had to build a new identity on the fly. The good news is Jaylen Brown has looked like a “fine, I’ll do it myself” star, putting up 29.3 points, 6.2 rebounds, and 4.9 assists while shooting 50.0% from the field.
For the Heat, the vibes have been all over the place lately. They just snapped a five-game losing streak by beating the Nets 106-95, with Norman Powell leading the way and Kel’el Ware going for 22 and 12.
Injury Report
Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Out (right Achilles repair)
Ron Harper Jr.: Out (G League, two-way)
Max Shulga: Out (G League, two-way)
Amari Williams: Out (G League, two-way)
Sam Hauser: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Josh Minott: Probable (low back spasm)
Heat
Tyler Herro: Out (right big toe contusion)
Nikola Jovic: Out (right elbow contusion/laceration)
Pelle Larsson: Out (left ankle sprain)
Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
Andrew Wiggins: Questionable (lower back pain)
Davion Mitchell: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Norman Powell: Available (left calf discomfort)
Kasparas Jakucionis: Available (left ankle soreness)
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The Celtics have the one thing that usually decides these coin-flip games: a clear offensive hierarchy.
Brown is playing at a ridiculous level right now, and when you combine his scoring with the way Derrick White has stabilized possessions, the Celtics can generate “good enough” offense even when the Heat try to muddy the floor. White is at 17.8 points and 5.0 assists, and he’s basically the guy who prevents the offense from turning into chaos when Brown sits.
The second edge is that the Celtics actually have multiple ways to survive a bad shooting night. If the threes aren’t falling, they can still lean on Brown’s shot creation, White’s pick-and-roll play, and Payton Pritchard’s punch. Pritchard has been a real factor this season with 16.7 points and 5.0 assists, and that matters a ton in games like this where the second unit minutes can swing the whole night.
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
The Heat’s advantage is that their style travels.
Even when the offense looks rough, they can turn games into a grind. They just did it against the Nets in a 106-95 win that was physical, slow, and basically dared the opponent to out-execute them. If this game turns into a half-court wrestling match, the Heat are totally comfortable living there.
And if Bam Adebayo is rolling, the Celtics are going to feel it. Bam is at 19.2 points and 9.0 rebounds this season, and he’s the type of big who can punish switches, create second chances, and force the Celtics into rotations that open up corner threes.
The other edge is that the Heat can manufacture offense without needing perfect spacing, because Norman Powell can still create a clean look late in the clock. He just proved it again in the win over the Nets, leading the way with 24 points and making multiple big shots when the game got tight.
Powell has also been the Heat’s most consistent scorer this season, at 24.4 points per game while shooting 49.6% from the field, so even if the Celtics load up early, the Heat still have a guard who can keep possessions alive with real shot-making.
Celtics vs. Heat Prediction
This feels like a game where the Celtics control most of the night, but the Heat keep it annoying and close, because that’s what they do.
I’m picking the Celtics, mainly because Brown has been the best player in this matchup all season, and the Celtics have more stable creators available right now. With the Heat still missing Tyler Herro and potentially Andrew Wiggins, it gets even harder for them to score consistently for 48 minutes.
Prediction: Celtics 118, Heat 106.
