The Indiana Pacers host the Boston Celtics at Gainbridge Fieldhouse on December 26, with a 7:00 PM ET tip, and the vibes are pretty simple: one team is trying to stay in the East’s top tier, the other is trying to survive the season.
The Celtics sit 3rd in the East at 18-11, while the Pacers are 14th at 6-24. And yes, they just played. The Celtics erased a 20-point hole and won 103-95 on Monday, holding the Pacers to 13 points in the fourth quarter. So this isn’t some mystery matchup. The Pacers already saw what happens when their offense dries up.
The headliners are clear. Jaylen Brown has been in full “I’m the No. 1 option” mode at 29.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.9 assists this season. Derrick White has been a huge secondary engine too at 18.3 points and 5.1 assists.
For the Pacers, Pascal Siakam has carried the scoring load at 23.5 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 3.9 assists, and they need every bit of it with the injuries piling up. Bennedict Mathurin is next up at 18.4 points and 5.7 rebounds, and he’s going to have to take some real “I’m not afraid of this” shots in this one.
Injury Report
Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton: Out (right Achilles tendon tear)
Isaiah Jackson: Out (concussion)
Aaron Nesmith: Out (left knee MCL sprain)
Ben Sheppard: Out (left calf strain)
Obi Toppin: Out (right foot stress fracture)
Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Out (right Achilles repair)
Chris Boucher: Out (personal reasons)
Ron Harper Jr.: Out (G League)
Max Shulga: Out (G League)
Amari Williams: Out (G League)
Jordan Walsh: Probable (non-Covid illness)
Why The Pacers Have The Advantage
The Pacers’ advantage is basically one thing: pace and urgency at home, because if they let this turn into a half-court chess match, the Celtics are going to squeeze the life out of them again.
The Pacers play faster than the Celtics this season, 100.12 pace compared to 95.73, and that gap matters because it’s one of the few ways the Pacers can manufacture easier looks without elite half-court creation available.
They also have enough ball-handling to at least make it annoying. Andrew Nembhard has been solid at 17.4 points and 6.4 assists, and if he can win his matchup for stretches, it keeps the Pacers from falling into that ugly “Siakam isolation every trip” mode. Mathurin’s shot profile matters too. He’s at 36.7% from three and 86.0% at the line, which is basically the Pacers’ best path to keeping up if the Celtics start stacking threes.
This is where I’ll be blunt: the Pacers can’t afford “good effort.” They need an actual shooting night. They’re at 109.2 points per game with just 42.9% from the field and 32.1% from three as a team, which is rough in today’s league. But the flip side is, if the Celtics show up even slightly casual, the Pacers can run them into mistakes and steal momentum with quick spurts.
If the Pacers win, it’s because Siakam bends the defense early, Nembhard keeps the ball moving, and they finally hit enough threes to avoid another fourth-quarter disaster.
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The Celtics have the advantage everywhere that usually decides real games: efficiency, shot quality, and the ability to win ugly.
Even without Tatum, their offense still ranks like a bully. They’re at 116.0 points per game and a 121.2 offensive rating, and that offensive rating number is basically screaming that their process is elite. Meanwhile, the Pacers sit at a 108.3 offensive rating, and that gap is exactly why the Celtics were able to hang around even when they were getting punched earlier this week.
The Celtics also win the math game. They hit 15.6 threes per game as a team and shoot 36.2% from deep, and that volume can erase any “Pacers are playing hard” stretch in about 90 seconds. Brown is the obvious headline, but the Celtics have multiple guards who can break you. White can run the offense and still explode, and Payton Pritchard has been a walking heater at 16.8 points and 5.2 assists.
And here’s the killer part: the Pacers’ defense hasn’t been close. They have a 116.9 defensive rating, and that’s basically permission for a well-drilled offense to get comfortable. The Celtics don’t even need to play fast. They can play patient, hunt mismatches, kick to shooters, and trust that the Pacers will crack first.
This matchup already gave us the script: the Celtics turned the defense up, the Pacers’ threes vanished, and the game ended with the Pacers looking out of answers. I’m not betting against that happening again.
Pacers vs. Celtics Prediction
I’m taking the Celtics. The Pacers are missing too much creation, and their team efficiency numbers are a problem against a Celtics group that can win with threes, win with physicality, or just win with execution.
Prediction: Celtics 122, Pacers 109
