The Dallas Mavericks host the Philadelphia 76ers at American Airlines Center on January 1, with tipoff scheduled for 8:30 PM ET.
The Mavericks have been trying to stabilize a rough start to the season at 12-22, while the 76ers enter at 17-14 and sitting much closer to the top half of the East picture.
These teams have already seen each other once this season, and the 76ers took Game 1 by a 121-114 score, so this is the Mavericks’ chance to even it up.
Star-wise, the 76ers still run through Tyrese Maxey, who is averaging 30.8 points, 7.1 assists, and 4.3 rebounds, and Joel Embiid, who is at 22.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.1 assists.
For the Mavericks, Anthony Davis is coming back from injury with 20.5 points, 10.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.6 blocks per game, while Cooper Flagg sits at 19.4 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.0 assists.
Injury Report
Mavericks
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
76ers
Kelly Oubre Jr.: Out (left knee sprain)
Trendon Watford: Out (left adductor strain)
Joel Embiid: Probable (right ankle sprain, right knee injury management)
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
This is the kind of matchup where the Mavericks’ supporting cast has to matter, because the 76ers can flat-out overwhelm you with star power when Maxey gets downhill and Embiid is available.
Start with P.J. Washington. He’s been the Mavericks’ most consistent two-way forward next to the big names, and his 15.4 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game tells you what his nights look like: real scoring, real rebounding, real rim protection from a forward spot. Against a 76ers team that wants to live at the foul line and in the paint, Washington’s ability to hold his ground and still punish switches is huge.
Then there’s D’Angelo Russell, who has quietly become one of the only “connectors” in this rotation. He’s averaging 10.2 points and 4.0 assists, and those numbers undersell the real value: if he can steady the non-Davis minutes and create decent shots without turnovers, the Mavericks can survive the stretches where the offense usually dies. With Kyrie out, those possessions matter even more.
The third swing guy is Daniel Gafford. He’s at 8.2 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks per game, and the Mavericks need that vertical spacing badly. If Gafford can finish lobs and keep the rim protected, it lets Davis roam a bit more defensively instead of doing absolutely everything every possession.
Basically, the Mavericks’ path is clear: win the “other guys” minutes, keep the glass respectable, and force the 76ers to beat you with jumpers instead of free throws and layups.
Why The 76ers Have The Advantage
Even before you talk about the stars, the 76ers have more playable shot creation than the Mavericks right now, and that usually decides road games like this.
VJ Edgecombe has been a massive piece of that. He’s averaging 15.5 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.0 assists, and he’s not just getting empty buckets. He attacks closeouts, he keeps the ball moving, and he gives the 76ers another handler who can punish a defense that loads up on Maxey.
Quentin Grimes is another big reason the 76ers can survive cold stretches. He’s at 14.7 points, 4.2 assists, and 3.8 rebounds, and that blend matters because he doesn’t need a perfect setup to contribute. If the Mavericks sell out to stop Maxey’s pull-up threes and Embiid’s touches, Grimes becomes the guy who keeps the offense functional.
And then there’s Andre Drummond, who gives the 76ers a real rebounding and physicality edge in the minutes Embiid sits. He’s averaging 9.3 rebounds per game, and that’s exactly the type of “extra possessions” stat that breaks home teams when the crowd is waiting for a run.
If the 76ers get decent production from those three, it takes a lot of pressure off the Maxey-Embiid pairing and makes it much harder for the Mavericks to survive mistakes.
Mavericks vs. 76ers Prediction
I’m leaning 76ers because they have more reliable creation and more ways to win if the game gets messy, especially with Kyrie out. If Embiid plays, the matchup tilts even more toward the 76ers’ ceiling.
Prediction: 76ers 118, Mavericks 112
