The Los Angeles Lakers host the Toronto Raptors on Sunday, January 18, at 6:30 PM PT.
The Lakers come in at 24-16 (6th in the West), while the Raptors sit at 25-18 (4th in the East).
The Lakers just got smacked by the Blazers, losing 132-116, and LeBron James finished with 20 points, 9 rebounds, and 8 assists in the loss.
The Raptors are coming off a 121-117 overtime loss to the Clippers.
These two already saw each other once this season, and the Lakers took the December 4 matchup 123-120, so the Raptors are trying to even the season series.
If Luka Doncic plays, he’s been a walking cheat code: 33.6 points, 8.7 rebounds, and 8.0 assists per game with 48.3% from the field and 36.7% from three.
LeBron is still doing LeBron things too: 25.1 points, 8.0 rebounds, and 8.9 assists on 48.6% shooting.
On the Raptors’ side, Brandon Ingram has been their steady scorer at 21.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 4.1 assists per game. Scottie Barnes stuffs the stat sheet at 20.0 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists.
This one’s spicy because both teams are banged up, and it’s the kind of game where rotations and late-game shot creation decide everything.
Injury Report
Lakers
Austin Reaves: Out (left calf strain)
Adou Thiero: Out (right MCL sprain)
Luka Doncic: Questionable (left groin soreness)
LeBron James: Questionable (left foot joint arthritis, right sciatica)
Raptors
RJ Barrett: Out (left ankle sprain)
Jakob Poeltl: Out (lower back strain)
Ja’Kobe Walter: Out (right hip pointer)
Immanuel Quickley: Questionable (back spasms)
Jamison Battle: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
The first thing is simple: the Lakers can put real pressure on the rim and win the math game at the line and in the paint, especially if Doncic suits up. They’re at 116.5 points per game, even with the injury juggling, and they play with enough pace to turn a couple stops into an instant 8-0 run.
They also rebound well enough to create extra possessions, and that matters a ton if the Raptors stay short-handed up front. The Lakers are at 44.6 rebounds per game and 26.9 assists per game, so when the ball is moving, they can generate good looks without needing hero shots every trip.
And if the Raptors are missing Jakob Poeltl again, that’s a huge deal for the way the Lakers want to attack. No true anchor behind the first line means LeBron downhill becomes a problem fast, and it also opens up clean dump-offs and put-backs.
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The Raptors’ biggest edge is they defend at a higher level than people want to admit, and their profile looks like a team that can travel. They’re allowing 112.3 points per game and they’re top-tier in defensive rating range, which is exactly the recipe to drag a game into the mud if the Lakers are missing creators.
They also take care of the ball better than the Lakers do. The Raptors are at 13.1 turnovers per game compared to the Lakers at 14.3, and that’s not a throwaway detail.
Against a team that wants to run, not handing away live-ball turnovers is basically free defense.
And if Immanuel Quickley is available, that changes everything about their late-clock offense. He’s at 16.5 points and 6.1 assists this season, and he gives them a real organizer when the game slows down.
X-Factors
Deandre Ayton is a massive swing piece for the Lakers in this matchup. He’s putting up 13.9 points and 8.7 rebounds while shooting an absurd 68.0% from the field.
If Poeltl sits, Ayton has a real chance to bully the glass and turn misses into second-chance points. If he controls the paint minutes, it keeps the Lakers from needing to play perfect basketball in the half-court.
Rui Hachimura is the other name I’m circling. He’s at 12.2 points per game and he’s bombing away at 43.3% from three. That’s the exact kind of shooting that punishes any over-help on LeBron, and it also stretches the floor so Ayton’s touches don’t come in traffic.
For the Raptors, Immanuel Quickley’s availability is everything. Even if he’s not 100%, his pace and decision-making matter because he’s averaging 16.5 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 6.1 assists. If he can play and actually push the ball, it forces the Lakers to defend in space instead of just loading up at the nail and living with the math.
Gradey Dick is the sneaky shooter swing. The Raptors need someone besides Ingram and Barnes to make the Lakers pay for helping, and Dick’s role is basically to turn those kick-outs into points. If he hits early threes, it completely changes how aggressive the Lakers can be with their help defense.
Prediction
If Doncic goes, I’m leaning Lakers. The shot creation advantage is just too big, and the Lakers’ inside scoring plus Ayton’s efficiency feels like the cleanest path to control the game. If Doncic sits and LeBron is limited, it gets way uglier, and that’s where the Raptors’ defense and lower turnover rate can steal it.
Prediction: Lakers 116, Raptors 111
