The Denver Nuggets will return home for Thursday night’s matchup, hosting the Los Angeles Lakers at Ball Arena on March 5 at 10:00 PM ET.
The Nuggets improved to 38-23 on the season after a 128-125 win over the Utah Jazz. While promising, their 2-3 record over their last five outings reveals how inconsistent they have been.
The Lakers, on the other hand, appear to have found their groove. After a 110-101 win over the New Orleans Pelicans, L.A.’s winning streak extended to three games, seeing them improve to 37-24 on the season.
Nikola Jokic leads the Nuggets with 28.7 points, 12.6 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game. He is closely supported by Jamal Murray, who adds 25.7 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.7 assists per game.
The Lakers are led by Luka Doncic, who is averaging a league-high 32.4 points, along with 7.7 rebounds and 8.6 assists per game. Austin Reaves contributes to the effort with 23.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.4 assists.
Although the Nuggets have enjoyed the upper hand against the Lakers over the last few years, the Lakers lead the season series 1-0 this time around. With only half a game separating the fifth-ranked Nuggets from the sixth-ranked Lakers, the result of this game could have a drastic impact on the Western Conference leaderboard.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Aaron Gordon: Out (right hamstring strain)
Spencer Jones: Out (right shoulder sprain)
Peyton Watson: Out (right hamstring strain)
Cam Johnson: Questionable (right ankle inflammation)
Lakers
Maxi Kleber: Questionable (back soreness)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The Nuggets almost routinely benefit from playing at home. Due to the elevation, opposing teams struggle to find their footing when facing Denver. Still, a 16-12 record at home doesn’t bode well for the team.
Denver’s greatest asset heading into this game is its offense. With Nikola Jokic running the show, the Nuggets’ league-leading offensive rating of 120.3 is bound to overwhelm any opposing defensive unit. When pairing this with their league-best 39.2% shooting from three-point range, Denver has an opportunity to punish the Lakers’ poor perimeter coverage.
When examining Denver’s previous game against the Lakers, it becomes clear that the team wasn’t at its best. A major reason for this was Jokic’s absence. Now, with the big man back in the lineup, the Nuggets will be far more threatening.
Aside from playmaking, Jokic’s presence will be felt most on the rebounding glass. Given L.A.’s poor rebounding (41.0 rebounds per game), the Nuggets can look to capitalize on this and secure more scoring opportunities to pull away early.
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
With a 19-12 record, the Purple and Gold have proven themselves to be quite formidable on the road. While their improved defensive performance could be a factor in this game, the Lakers’ real advantage lies in their offensive execution.
Despite an offensive rating of 116.3 (10th in the NBA), the Lakers lead the league in field-goal percentage, shooting 49.8% from the floor.
Typically, their offense is focused on the trio of Luka Doncic, LeBron James, and Austin Reaves. While concerning, the production from these three has repeatedly seen L.A. through to victory.
Given that they score 51.6 points per game within the paint, the Lakers can put immense pressure on Denver’s interior defense. However, the Lakers should aim to capitalize on Denver’s weak transition defense.
Despite averaging only 13.0 turnovers per game this season, the Nuggets allow 16.9 points per game off turnovers and 13.9 second-chance points.
While the Lakers aren’t the best at maximizing these opportunities, averaging 18.1 points per game off turnovers, the Purple and Gold will hope to force the Nuggets to make mistakes.
X-Factors
Outside of the superstar duo, Jonas Valanciunas will play a crucial role against the Lakers on Thursday night. With averages of 8.8 points and 5.2 rebounds per game this season, Valanciunas has been solid. But considering L.A.’s weaker big man rotation, the duo of Valanciunas and Jokic could wreak havoc on the Lakers’ interior defense.
Christian Braun‘s activity on both ends of the floor will also prove vital in Cam Johnson‘s absence. Although he missed the previous matchup against L.A., his averages of 13.5 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 3.1 assists per game in his last 10 outings suggest that he could be a pivotal piece on Thursday night.
For the Lakers, the key player will be Austin Reaves. Although he has typically been a reliable scoring option, his averages of 17.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per game over his last 10 appearances leave more to be desired. Given how vital he is to their success, L.A. will need him to step up.
Jaxson Hayes has notched a minor uptick over the last few games, with 8.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 0.7 blocks per game. Although he comes off the bench, his impact on the defensive end could prove decisive against the Nuggets’ center rotation.
Prediction
The Lakers appear to be far more confident compared to when they were coming out of the All-Star break. Although this would typically instill some faith in their potential to win, the Nuggets are a bad matchup for the Purple and Gold. With Jokic and Murray routinely dominating against L.A., the Lakers may face tough odds unless they can exploit Denver’s defensive shortcomings.
Prediction: Nuggets 121, Lakers 104
