The NBA title can be decided at Frost Bank Center on Saturday, June 13, at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Knicks lead the Finals 3-1 after winning Game 4, 107-106. The Spurs are back home, but they need three straight wins to save the season. The Knicks need one.
Game 4 was one of the worst losses possible for the Spurs. They led by 29 points and entered halftime ahead 76-49. The Knicks still completed the largest comeback in NBA Finals history. Jalen Brunson finished with 36 points and seven assists. OG Anunoby scored 33 points, made seven threes, blocked De’Aaron Fox near the end, and tipped in the winning basket with 1.2 seconds left.
Victor Wembanyama had 24 points, 13 rebounds, and three blocks, but shot 9-of-25 from the field in 44 minutes. Dylan Harper scored 21 points, while Devin Vassell added 18. The Spurs had enough scoring to win. Their problem was the second half, where the offense stopped and Wembanyama lost energy.
Injury Report
Spurs
Luke Kornet: Questionable (illness)
Knicks
No players listed.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs have been good enough to lead late in every game. That is the main reason Game 5 is still possible for them. They led by 14 in Game 1, had the final shot in Game 2, won Game 3, and led by 29 in Game 4. The 3-1 series score looks one-sided, but the games have not been.
Wembanyama remains the biggest individual advantage. He is averaging 27.8 points, 10.5 rebounds, and 3.3 blocks in the Finals. The Knicks have made him work, but they have not stopped him. Game 5 needs a better shooting night. He cannot take another high number of difficult perimeter shots after playing heavy minutes.
The Spurs need more rolls, seals, elbow touches, and early entries. Wembanyama has to receive the ball before the Knicks set their help defense. He shot 9-of-25 in Game 4 and looked tired late. Mitch Johnson also needs to manage his minutes better. Playing 44 minutes did not help when the game reached the final possessions.
Kornet’s status matters for that reason. He has played limited minutes in the Finals, but he is one of the few backup centers who can protect Wembanyama from playing almost the full game. If Kornet is out, the Spurs may need smaller minutes with Carter Bryant.
The Spurs also need De’Aaron Fox to improve his game. He is averaging 16.5 points and 6.5 assists against the Knicks, but is shooting only 14.3% from three. The Knicks are going under some actions and loading help toward Wembanyama. Fox has to attack faster and make enough outside shots to change that coverage.
Ball movement is another point. The Spurs and Knicks are both averaging 22.5 assists in the Finals, but the Spurs become too slow during negative runs. Game 4 was the main example. They stopped using Wembanyama as a finisher and started taking difficult shots late in the clock.
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks have been the better closing team. They have won three games in this series after trailing during the final two minutes of the fourth quarter. That is the direct difference between 3-1 and a possible 1-3 deficit.
Brunson is averaging 29.5 points per game in the Finals. He had 36 points in Game 4 and scored the biggest half-court baskets during the comeback. The Spurs have used Castle, Vassell, Fox, and extra help against him. Brunson is still getting to the middle and controlling the final possessions.
The Knicks also have the best secondary player in the series so far. Anunoby is averaging 23.8 points, 4.0 rebounds, 1.0 steal, and 1.5 blocks. He is shooting 58.0% from the field, 56.0% from three, and 92.0% at the line. Those numbers are elite for a player also taking hard defensive assignments.
Game 4 showed why Anunoby is difficult for the Spurs. He made seven of nine threes, scored 33 points, blocked Fox late, and finished the final possession with the winning offensive rebound. The Spurs cannot leave him to send extra help toward Brunson.
The Knicks also hold the shooting advantage. They are making 37.8% from three in the series, compared to 34.2% for the Spurs. That difference is not large, but it matters in games decided by one, four, or 10 points.
Karl-Anthony Towns has not scored at his normal level, but he is averaging 10.8 rebounds and still changes the Wembanyama matchup. His shooting forces Wembanyama away from the rim. Mitchell Robinson also gives the Knicks offensive rebounding and another physical center when Towns sits.
The Knicks do not need a perfect offensive game. They have already won with Brunson shooting 12-of-31, with Towns scoring 11 or 13 points, and after falling behind by 29. Their defense and late-game execution give them more margin than the Spurs.
X-Factors
Dylan Harper is the main Spurs X-factor. He scored 21 points in Game 4 after giving them 16 points and eight rebounds in Game 1 and 15 points in Game 2. His size and rim pressure are important because the Spurs need another scorer when Fox is not efficient. Harper should play more late minutes if he is producing.
Devin Vassell had 18 points and made five threes in Game 4. The Spurs need another 16-20 points from him. The Knicks will continue sending help toward Wembanyama, so Vassell will receive open catch-and-shoot chances. He cannot disappear after the first half.
OG Anunoby is the main Knicks X-factor, even if his Finals production now looks closer to a star. His 23.8 points per game and elite shooting have changed the series. The Spurs need to stay attached to him, which gives Brunson and Towns more space.
Karl-Anthony Towns is the other Knicks swing player. He has not needed a major scoring game yet, but the Spurs cannot assume that continues. If Towns gives the Knicks 20 points with his 10-12 rebounds, the Spurs will need a near-perfect offensive night.
Prediction
The Spurs should respond at home. Wembanyama will be aggressive early, Harper should stay involved, and the Game 4 collapse should create a stronger start. The problem is not their ability to build a lead. They have done that several times. The problem is finishing.
The Knicks trust Brunson in the final possessions, Anunoby is playing the best basketball of his career, and their defense has controlled the important minutes. The Spurs can extend the series, but the Knicks have shown the more reliable formula.
Prediction: Knicks 108, Spurs 104
