- There is a change at the top of the NBA right now when it comes to small forwards and who is the best
- LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard have each won multiple championships and Finals MVPs in their careers
- Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler could be set for MVP-caliber seasons in 2023-24
As we get set for another riveting season of NBA basketball heading into the 2023-24 season, we have a few positional debates that still need settling. Recently, we used our modified, most accurate formula to determine that Stephen Curry is the best point guard heading into 2023-24. We also used it to determine that Devin Booker is the best shooting guard in the NBA at this current moment in an extremely tight race. Now, it is time we move on to small forwards with one of the most highly-anticipated debates to date. Â
The debate has begun to spark interest due to the four elite NBA players occupying the top four positions. It is important to note that due to his role as a power forward over the last several seasons, Kevin Durant is not included in this discussion today among small forwards. Instead, the discussion revolves around LeBron James, Jayson Tatum, Kawhi Leonard, and Jimmy Butler. Each of these players provides an equal case to be named the NBA’s best small forward right now, and our formula will calm the chaos by the end of this piece.
Many questions will be answered below. Is LeBron James ready to give up the throne? Is Jayson Tatum the next man up to claim the No. 1 spot? How can Jimmy Butler not be No. 1 after willing the Miami Heat to the NBA Finals? Can we trust Kawhi Leonard to be fully healthy and present for a Clippers playoff run?
There is so much to unpack between these four superstars, but only one can earn the title of the best small forward in the NBA right now.
Scoring
1. Jayson Tatum – 4 Points
2. LeBron James – 3 Points
3. Kawhi Leonard – 2 Points
4. Jimmy Butler – 1 Point
We kick off this debate with the scoring category, which narrowly goes to Jayson Tatum of the Boston Celtics. Tatum is coming off a season in 2022-23 in which he became the first player in Celtics history to average over 30.0 points per game. Tatum shot 46.6% from the field this past season and 35.0% from three.
Just behind Tatum is the ageless wonder LeBron James who put together a decent season despite a foot injury nagging him for the second half of it. James averaged 28.9 points per game on the season and shot 50.0% from the field in 55 games played. Even at 38-39 years old, LeBron is still one of the better scorers and overall players in the game.
Bringing up the rear are Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard. Butler turned in the lowest scoring average for the 2022-23 season, averaging 22.9 points per game on 53.9% shooting from the field. Meanwhile, Kawhi Leonard averaged 23.8 points per game on 51.2% shooting but played 12 fewer games than Butler. In the end, we gave the edge to Leonard for two points while Butler got just one.
Shooting
1. Kawhi Leonard – 4 Points
2. Jayson Tatum – 3 Points
3. Jimmy Butler – 2 Points
4. LeBron James – 1 Point
For the shooting category, this list may seem controversial but the reasoning behind it is clear. Kawhi Leonard takes home four points in this category as an efficient shooter from all three levels on the court, especially the mid-range and even from three. In 2022-23, Leonard shot 51.2% from the field overall but also 41.6% from three on 4.8 attempts. He finished with a true shooting percentage of 62.3%, the second-highest among these four players.
The highest true shooting percentage among these four small forwards belongs to Jimmy Butler at 64.7% but he attempted just 1.6 threes per game and shot 35.0% just like Jayson Tatum who gets the second-place points with three. Butler shot much better from the mid-range at 50.0% but Tatum takes free throw shooting slightly as well.
Taking home just one point after a season in which he struggled shooting the ball is LeBron James. He may have shot 50.0% overall but that is because of mostly layups and fast break finishes. James shot just 32.1% from three in the regular season and 26.4% in the playoffs. He also shot just 34.0% from 10-16 feet, the second-lowest percentage from that distance in his career.
Athleticism
1. Jimmy Butler – 4 Points
2. Jayson Tatum – 3 Points
3. LeBron James – 2 Points
4. Kawhi Leonard – 1 Point
This is about as odd of a group of players that one could rank based on athleticism. For me, athleticism goes well beyond just being able to run fast and jump high. Stamina and conditioning are huge parts of a player’s athleticism and Jimmy Butler is the perfect example of that. Butler’s athleticism allows him to be the clutch player he is in the NBA playoffs and reach a different gear when everyone gets tired.
Selecting Butler is easy but the last three were difficult in the worst way. Jayson Tatum is in his prime thus landing the second-place points with his flashes of athletic ability over the last six years. LeBron James is approaching 39 years old yet has defined Father Time in every way, still showing flashes of peak LeBron form. Lastly, Kawhi Leonard is incredibly athletic at his peak but right now there is no way of telling how yet another knee injury has affected his athleticism.
With all things considered, we believe this to be the correct order in terms of athleticism.
Defense
1. Kawhi Leonard – 4 Points
2. Jimmy Butler – 3 Points
3. Jayson Tatum – 2 Points
4. LeBron James – 1 Point
When it comes to the defensive side of the ball, there are two players here who stand above the others. Kawhi Leonard, even at this stage of his career, is still the best defender among the four small forwards here. Leonard’s length and defensive instincts are still very much on full display when he is on the court and only seem to get better when the lights shine brighter.
Jimmy Butler is not far behind in terms of defensive pressure and impact. Butler is among the best on-ball defenders in the NBA while also being a lockdown late-game defender as well. As far as Jayson Tatum goes, his defensive impact is more of an impact on a team level but he has made some key defensive stops against superior offensive players in big moments come playoff time. LeBron James’ days as an elite defender are well behind him but at 39 years old, can you blame him for taking some plays off?
Handles
1. Jayson Tatum – 4 Points
2. Jimmy Butler – 3 Points
3. LeBron James – 2 Points
4. Kawhi Leonard – 1 Point
When it comes to handles and how they are judged among small forwards, you have to take a look at what they are creating using their handles just as much as the handles themselves. With that being said, Jayson Tatum does the best job here of creating space for shots from the perimeter as well as getting by his defenders for shots at the rim. Tatum’s side-step three-pointer and spin move from the post are two of his more effective moves.
Jimmy Butler falls into that category as well with how he uses his dribble to consistently overpower defenders and get to the rim. Butler rarely works away from the ball as a shooter so he relies on his handles to get him higher percentage shots close to the basket. While Leonard and James are elite finishers in their own right, they rely more on their abilities as athletes in getting to the rim rather than effective handles.
Clutch
1. LeBron James – 4 Points
2. Jimmy Butler – 3 Points
3. Kawhi Leonard – 2 Points
4. Jayson Tatum – 1 Point
For the clutch category, it is hard to argue against LeBron James who is in the discussion for the most clutch player of all time. Whether it be shots created for himself to win games or creating shots for teammates to do the same, LeBron James is among the best in NBA history which remains true to this day. Jimmy Butler has proved he is as clutch as they come in the NBA with big-time performances in every round of the playoffs up to and including the NBA Finals. Out of these four players, Jimmy Butler is perhaps the one you would turn to outside of James for one iconic performance to will you to victory.
Kawhi Leonard has his share of clutch performances as well, they just haven’t come in quite a long time. Considering his injury history over the last four years, it is hard to classify his performances as clutch. Jayson Tatum needs an iconic clutch performance in order to move up this list. Yes, he had 51 points in Game 7 against Philadelphia this season but that was overshadowed by inconsistent play and a loss to Miami in the Conference Finals.
Leadership
1. Jimmy Butler – 4 Points
2. LeBron James – 3 Points
3. Jayson Tatum- 2 Points
4. Kawhi Leonard – 1 Point
Right now in the NBA, you would be hard-pressed to find a better leader than Jimmy Butler. There is simply no player better than Butler who rallies his team on the court and also gets them to buy into the famous Heat Culture that has led Miami to three Conference Finals appearances and two NBA Finals appearances since 2020. LeBron James’ leadership skills have been on full display for 20 seasons heading into 2023-24 and he has proven to be one of the greatest leaders the sport has ever seen.
Jayson Tatum and Kawhi Leonard are not what we would classify as true leaders compared to Butler and James. Tatum and Leonard are the type of players to let their games do the talking and have teammates follow their lead. James and Butler are much more inclusive and vocal. This isn’t to say Leonard and Tatum aren’t great leaders because they are. Butler and James just happen to be on another level.
Basketball IQ
1. LeBron James – 4 Points
2. Kawhi Leonard – 3 Points
3. Jayson Tatum – 2 Points
4. Jimmy Butler – 1 Point
There are very few players in NBA history who have proven to be as smart or methodical as LeBron James is on the court. James takes pride in studying opponents and their tendencies to almost an obsession-like level. He is still able to pick apart and read defenses like no other while being able to direct his teammates on the defensive side as well. LeBron James may just have the highest basketball IQ ever which rings true to this day.
Kawhi Leonard, Jimmy Butler, and Jayson Tatum are all extremely intelligent basketball players and fall just behind James in this category. Leonard and Butler get the nod for second and third place in this category due to what they provide with their defensive IQ just as much as their offensive IQ. Butler and Leonard are the quintessential two-way players who give their team an edge using their understanding of the game at the highest level.
Impact
1. Jayson Tatum – 4 Points
2. Jimmy Butler – 3 Points
3. LeBron James – 2 Points
4. Kawhi Leonard – 1 Point
It feels extremely off to have LeBron James and Kawhi Leonard ranked as the lower players in terms of impact but it isn’t 2018 anymore. LeBron James is still an impactful player but not at the level he once was or as high of a level as Jimmy Butler or Jayson Tatum. Kawhi Leonard has been injured far too often over the last four years to have any real impact on a Clippers team primed to compete for a championship.
Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler have done nothing since 2020 but have their teams in position to compete for an NBA title. No matter the circumstances, narratives, or odds, Butler and Tatum have battled against one another or had their teams right on the cusp of competing for an NBA title while James and Leonard’s teams have missed playoffs or been eliminated early on in the playoffs.
Efficiency
1. Jimmy Butler – 4 Points
2. Jayson Tatum – 3 Points
3. LeBron James – 2 Points
4. Kawhi Leonard – 1 Point
Of any small forward here, Jimmy Butler had the most efficient season in 2022-23. Butler not only shot the ball over 50.0% from the field but he also boasted the highest PER of any small forward here with a 27.9 rating. Jayson Tatum was also extremely efficient for the Celtics with a PER rating of 23.7 and a true shooting percentage of 60.7%.
James and Leonard also recorded PERs of over 23.0 for the season but missed far more time on the court than Butler and Tatum. Leonard was extremely efficient shooting the ball and has a case to be ranked over LeBron James here. In a case for efficiency among these four players, it comes down to what you prefer each of them to be efficient at on the court but each of them has their undisputed strengths in that area.
Who Is The Best Small Forward In The NBA Right Now?
1. Jayson Tatum – 28 Points (3 Categories Won)
2. Jimmy Butler – 27 Points (3 Categories Won)
3. LeBron James – 21 Points (2 Categories Won)
4. Kawhi Leonard – 20 Points (2 Categories Won)
The results are in and while they may surprise you, they do signal the dawn of a new era in the NBA in 2023-24. The first glaring takeaway from these rankings is the severe drop LeBron James has taken. Of course, if we were talking about his entire career, this wouldn’t even be a discussion. However, in 2023-24, I think it is okay to admit that he has lost a step and is no longer the dominant small forward we have come to know him as.
The battle between Jayson Tatum and Jimmy Butler for the top spot came down to one point and could be an argument that goes either way when taking a closer look at it. Tatum takes the edge in scoring and shooting while Butler is the clear better defender and leader. With one point separating them, I think it is fair to conclude that they are the two best small forwards in the game heading into 2023-24 bar none.
As for Kawhi Leonard, his rankings here are completely skewed by his lack of time spent on the court. Missing key games in the Clippers’ last three playoff appearances due to injury is never going to work out well for that player from a ratings standpoint. Leonard could completely throw a wrench into this list if he has a healthy run in 2023-24. It just has to be seen before it is applied to our formula.Â
