The analytics movement in the NBA has had many benefits, and generally, data can help teams make projections about players. It does have to be said that basketball has a lot of moving variables and that numbers can sometimes be inaccurate. However, generally speaking, there are reliable models out there that can help predict a player’s future value.
One of those models is by Nate Silver of 538. The model in question is supposed to identify similar players to the player in question and give an approximation of how their future will unfold. Here are the top 7 players over the next 7 years, along with their approximate value over that time.
1. Luka Doncic – $576.53 million
2. Nikola Jokic – $502.87 million
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo – $367.38 million
4. LaMelo Ball – $341.9 million
5. Joel Embiid – $338.37 million
6. Zion Williamson -$301.7 million
7. Jayson Tatum – $299.94 million
Some of those players may not be considered among the top 7 players in the league right now, but that will obviously change as elite stars who are older start to age. For example, the model projects Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Stephen Curry as being outside of the top 30 players in the league in terms of 7-year value, even though many consider them the best players in the league as of now. Most of the names are to be expected in terms of being great in the future: all but one of these players are at least All-NBA caliber in terms of individual ability, and the one who isn’t (LaMelo Ball) just won Rookie of the Year.
It remains to be seen how accurate these projections will be, and things can certainly change over the next few years. However, all of the players on the list have the potential to become the superstars of tomorrow.
