The Mavericks host the Hawks at American Airlines Center on Wednesday, March 18, at 8:30 p.m. ET.
The Mavericks enter at 23-46 and 13th in the West with a 14-20 home record, while the Hawks are 37-31 and eighth in the East with an 18-15 road record.
The Hawks are coming off a 124-112 win over the Magic and have stretched their winning streak to 10 games, while the Mavericks are coming off a 129-111 loss to the Pelicans.
The Hawks also took the first meeting of the season series, winning 124-112 on March 10. This is one of those games where the records matter, but the bigger story is whether the Mavericks have enough offense to survive the Hawks’ pace and pressure for four quarters.
Jalen Johnson has been the Hawks’ engine all season, averaging 23.0 points, 10.4 rebounds, and 8.1 assists, while CJ McCollum has given them another scorer and organizer at 18.6 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 3.6 assists.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg is still the clear centerpiece at 20.2 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists, and P.J. Washington is adding 14.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.9 assists.
That gives this matchup a pretty clean shape: the Hawks have the better team rhythm and the hotter group, but the Mavericks still have enough frontcourt scoring and enough Flagg creation to make this uncomfortable if the game turns sloppy.
Injury Report
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Brandon Williams: Doubtful (concussion protocol)
Daniel Gafford: Questionable (illness)
Caleb Martin: Questionable (right plantar fascia soreness)
Hawks
RayJ Dennis: Doubtful (G League – Two-Way)
Keshon Gilbert: Doubtful (G League – Two-Way)
Jonathan Kuminga: Questionable (left knee injury management)
Asa Newell: Doubtful (G League – On Assignment)
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ best argument starts with rebounding and size. They are averaging 44.9 rebounds per game, which is better than the Hawks’ 43.5 mark, and they have been willing to play bigger or more physical frontcourt looks when Washington is at center, and Flagg is crashing from the wing. Against a Hawks team that still gives up 116.6 points per game, that extra size matters because it can keep the game from becoming a pure transition-and-skill contest.
There is also a pace angle here that can help the Mavericks more than people think. They play at a 101.49 pace, while the Hawks are at 102.35, so this should not automatically become a one-way track meet. The Mavericks are not an efficient offense overall, with a 110.6 offensive rating, but they can still play faster than their record suggests and create enough possessions to let Flagg operate in space. If they can keep this from turning into a turnover avalanche, their offensive ceiling is better than the full-season numbers imply.
The recent Mavericks sample also gives them at least some real optimism. In the win over the Cavaliers two days ago, Flagg had 27 points and 10 assists, Washington posted 20 points and 11 rebounds, and the group showed it can still generate functional offense when the ball moves and the spacing holds. Even in the loss to the Pelicans, Flagg had 21 points with eight rebounds and eight assists, while Naji Marshall kept producing. So even though the record is rough, this has not been a completely dead offense every night.
Why The Hawks Have The Advantage
The cleanest edge is overall offensive flow. The Hawks are averaging 117.8 points per game, 30.4 assists per game, and a 115.3 offensive rating. The Mavericks are down at 113.2 points per game, 25.1 assists, and a 110.6 offensive rating. That gap is real, and it matters a lot in this matchup because the Hawks are one of the few teams that can overwhelm weaker defenses with passing volume before the game even gets to crunch time.
The Hawks are also just in much better form. They have won 10 straight, they are 11-1 since the All-Star break, and over their last 10 wins, they are averaging 122.9 points, 49.9 rebounds, 30.5 assists, and 10.1 steals while winning by 18.1 points per game. That is not a soft heater built on random close wins. It is a team that has been blowing people off the floor with pace, ball movement, and defensive activity.
There is also a recent defensive case that matters more than the season-long number. Since the break, the Hawks lead the league in net rating at 12.8 and defensive rating at 104.7. That lines up with how they have looked on the floor. They are faster to the ball, better on the glass, and much more connected than the early-season version of this group. Against a Mavericks team that has lost 12 of its last 14, that kind of form edge is hard to ignore.
And there is direct matchup evidence, too. The Hawks already beat the Mavericks 124-112 on March 10, and in that game, Dyson Daniels had 14 points and 10 assists while Nickeil Alexander-Walker scored 29. The Hawks did not need a miracle shooting night to win it. They just played their game, moved the ball, and made the Mavericks defend too many actions in a row. That is exactly why this matchup still leans their way.
X-Factors
Dyson Daniels is a huge swing piece for the Hawks because he changes the feel of the game without needing high usage. He is at 11.5 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 6.1 assists, and he played well in the first meeting with 14 points, 10 assists, seven rebounds, and three steals. If Daniels controls the possession game again, the Hawks get the exact kind of transition pressure that can break the Mavericks’ structure.
Onyeka Okongwu is the other Hawks role guy who matters here. He is putting up 15.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, and his energy in the middle has become a real part of the Hawks’ surge. Against a Mavericks frontcourt that could be short-handed again, Okongwu can tilt the game by running the floor, finishing quick actions, and making the Mavericks pay if they go too small.
P.J. Washington is the Mavericks’ cleanest x-factor because he gives them lineup flexibility and some badly needed physicality. He brings 14.0 points and 7.0 rebounds, and he just posted 20 points and 11 boards in the win over the Cavaliers before scoring 18 in the loss to the Pelicans. If Washington wins the frontcourt minutes, the Mavericks have a real chance to keep this game close deep into the second half.
Naji Marshall is the other Mavericks swing piece because he has been one of the few reliable secondary scorers on the roster. He is averaging 15.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, and he just dropped 32 points with eight rebounds and seven assists against the Pelicans. If Marshall keeps giving the Mavericks that kind of downhill scoring and connective play, the offense looks a lot less thin around Flagg.
Prediction
The Mavericks have enough size and enough Flagg shot creation to make this competitive for a while, especially at home. But the stronger read still points to the Hawks. They are on a 10-game winning streak, they already beat this matchup once, and they bring a major edge in assists, offensive rhythm, and recent two-way form. Unless the Mavericks win the rebounding battle big and keep the turnover count under control, this feels like another game where the Hawks’ pace and passing wear them down over four quarters.
Prediction: Mavericks 114, Hawks 121
