The Rockets host the Celtics at Toyota Center on Wednesday, February 4, 2026, at 8:00 PM ET.
The Rockets come in at 31-17 (4th in the West) and have been a real problem at home at 17-4. The Celtics are 32-18 (3rd in the East) and have held up well on the road at 16-10.
The Rockets are coming off a 118-114 win over the Pacers, riding a huge Alperen Sengun night with the offense leaning heavily on the interior without Durant.
The Celtics just beat the Mavericks 110-100, but that win came with the injury bug already thinning out the rotation.
The season series already has some juice: the Rockets took the first meeting 128-101, which matters given how banged up the Celtics are right now.
For the Rockets, it’s Kevin Durant (26.2 points, 5.4 rebounds, 51.0% from the field, 40.5% from three) and Sengun (21.4 points, 9.4 rebounds, 6.3 assists).
For the Celtics, it starts with Jaylen Brown (29.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 48.6% from the field, 36.2% from three) if he can suit up, and Derrick White (17.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.5 assists).
This one matters because it’s basically a stress test of who can keep a real offense functional while the injury report is trying to wipe out half the rotation.
Injury Report
Rockets
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle surgery)
Tristen Newton: Out (G League; two-way)
Kevin Durant: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Dorian Finney-Smith: Out (left ankle injury management)
Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Out (right Achilles repair)
Anfernee Simons: Out (personal reasons)
Chris Boucher: Out (personal reasons)
Sam Hauser: Out (right thumb strain)
Jaylen Brown: Doubtful (left hamstring tightness; right knee soreness)
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets’ advantage is physicality and possession control at home, and that’s not vibes. They’re grabbing 49.4 rebounds per game, blocking 5.8 shots, and generating 8.7 steals, which is exactly the stuff that turns a short-handed opponent into a turnover machine.
They’re also more comfortable living in the paint and living at the line: 24.6 free throws attempted per game is a lot of pressure on a Celtics frontcourt that’s juggling minutes and roles right now.
And if Durant plays close to normal, the Rockets’ half-court offense stops being “Sengun please save us” and turns into a real two-star structure. With the Celtics potentially missing Brown and already without Jayson Tatum, the “best player on the floor” argument swings hard toward the Rockets.
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The Celtics’ clean edge is ball security plus spacing volume. They’re at just 12.0 turnovers per game and a 12.4% turnover rate, which matters a ton against a Rockets team that thrives on chaotic possessions and extra shots.
They also have a very “adult” shot profile: 42.4 threes attempted per game at 36.7% from three. If the Rockets over-help on Brown and White actions (or load up on Pritchard when he’s cooking), the Celtics have enough shooting to make those rotations expensive.
And even with the injuries, the Celtics’ baseline production is still real: 116.0 points per game while allowing 108.9. That’s the kind of profile that travels, even when
it looks ugly.
X-Factors
For the Rockets, Amen Thompson is the “this game breaks open” guy. He’s at 18.1 points, 7.8 rebounds, 5.5 assists on 50.5% shooting, and his downhill pressure is exactly what punishes a tired, short-handed rotation.
Jabari Smith Jr. is the other lever. He’s at 15.1 points and 6.9 rebounds, and if he hits a couple early jumpers, it pulls help away from Sengun’s hub actions and makes the Rockets way harder to load up on.
Payton Pritchard is the Celtics swing piece because the injuries basically force him into a high-usage creator role. He’s at 16.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and if he can win the non-Durant minutes (or just keep the Celtics afloat while the Rockets’ defense ramps up), the Celtics can actually steal this.
Neemias Queta matters more than people want to admit. He’s at 10.1 points and 8.1 rebounds on 63.6% from the field, and if he can keep Sengun from living on second chances, that’s how the Celtics survive the possession battle.
The wildcard is Nikola Vucevic after the trade that sent him to the Celtics for Anfernee Simons. The deal is not expected to go through today, but if he’s active, that’s 16.9 points and 9.0 rebounds worth of steadiness, plus another big body to soak up Sengun minutes.
Prediction
I’m taking the Rockets, mostly because the injury math is brutal for the Celtics and the Rockets’ home profile is built to punish thin rotations. If Brown sits (or is seriously limited) and Durant plays, I think the Rockets win the physical possessions and turn it into a grind where the Celtics’ offense has to be perfect to keep up.
Prediction: Rockets 113, Celtics 106
