A cross-conference game with very different stakes lands at the United Center on Monday, March 23, at 8 p.m. ET. The Bulls are 28-42, 12th in the East, and 17-20 at home. The Rockets are 43-27, fourth in the West, and 18-17 on the road.
The Bulls are trying to stay competitive down the stretch, but the recent stretch has been uneven. Their most recent outing was a 115-110 loss on Thursday to the Cavaliers, a game in which they nearly erased a huge deficit late behind Josh Giddey’s 19 assists and a strong fourth-quarter push. The Rockets arrive after Saturday’s 123-122 win over the Heat, sealed by Amen Thompson’s buzzer-beating tip-in.
There is already one reference point in this matchup. The Rockets won the first meeting 119-113 on January 13, and they have now won four straight in the series. Kevin Durant had 28 points and 10 rebounds in that game, while Alperen Sengun finished with 23 points and 11 assists.
For the Bulls, Josh Giddey is putting up 17.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 9.0 assists, while Matas Buzelis has given them 16.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.0 assists.
For the Rockets, Kevin Durant is at 25.7 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.4 assists, and Alperen Sengun is posting 20.2 points, 8.9 rebounds, and 6.1 assists.
This one is pretty clear on paper. The Bulls can make the game fast and noisy. The Rockets have the stronger overall profile and a lot more margin when the game settles into half-court possessions.
Injury Report
Bulls
Zach Collins: Out (right first toe surgery)
Noa Essengue: Out (left shoulder surgery)
Isaac Okoro: Doubtful (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Guerschon Yabusele: Doubtful (left ankle sprain)
Jaden Ivey: Questionable (left patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Anfernee Simons: Questionable (left ulnar styloid fracture)
Jalen Smith: Questionable (right calf strain, injury management)
Rockets
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle surgery)
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Why The Bulls Have The Advantage
The Bulls’ best case starts with pace and ball movement. They are scoring 115.8 points per game, averaging 28.7 assists, and playing at a 101.8 pace. That is a good offensive rhythm team when it gets into the open floor and keeps the ball hopping side to side. The Rockets, by contrast, play much slower at a 95.8 pace, so the Bulls need to drag them out of that comfort zone.
There is also a perimeter volume argument for the home side. The Bulls are shooting 36.2% from three, which ranks 10th in the league, and they are making 14.6 threes per game. That matters against a Rockets team that can defend, but one that is still more vulnerable if you force it to guard a lot of actions in space without letting the game become a pure rebounding fight. If Giddey is creating paint touches and Buzelis is finishing second-side plays, the Bulls can get enough good looks to stay attached.
The other opening is in the Rockets’ road profile. They are just 18-17 away from home, and the most recent road swing showed some cracks. They lost twice to the Lakers before recovering with wins over the Hawks and Heat. The Rockets are still the better team, but they are not invincible once the environment gets a little messy and the whistle shifts toward the home team. That is the version of the game the Bulls need.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets simply have the stronger two-way baseline. They own an 118.2 offensive rating, which ranks seventh in the league, and a 113.4 defensive rating, which ranks eighth. The Bulls sit at 113.3 on offense, 24th in the NBA, and 117.6 on defense, which ranks 23rd. That is a pretty significant gap on both ends, and it is the main reason this matchup leans toward the road team despite the venue.
The rebounding edge is another big part of it. The Rockets lead the league at 48.0 rebounds per game. The Bulls are solid there at 45.0, but that still trails the Rockets’ frontcourt volume and physicality. Sengun, Thompson, and Jabari Smith Jr. give the Rockets more ways to win extra possessions, and that becomes even more important against a Bulls defense that already gives up too many clean looks.
The Rockets also have more reliable top-end shot creation. Durant is still one of the cleanest half-court scorers in the league, Sengun gives them a playmaking hub at center, and Thompson has become a real pressure source in transition and at the rim. Saturday’s win over the Heat was another example. Thompson had 24 points and 18 rebounds, Reed Sheppard dished 14 assists, and the Rockets still found enough structure to survive a wild finish. The Bulls can score, but the Rockets have more ways to generate a quality possession late.
X-Factors
Matas Buzelis is a big swing piece for the Bulls. He is averaging 16.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.0 assists, and his activity level changes the game when he is aggressive. Against a bigger front line, the Bulls need him to cut, finish, and make quick decisions instead of drifting into a spot-up role. If Buzelis gives them an efficient offense without needing a huge number of touches, the whole game looks more manageable for the home side.
Tre Jones is the other one to watch for the Bulls. He is putting up 12.5 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 5.3 assists with the team, and his value in this matchup is pretty clear. He has to keep the tempo up, organize the second unit, and prevent the offense from turning into stagnant one-on-one possessions. If Jones gives the Bulls control in the non-Giddey minutes, they have a real shot to keep this game close late.
Jabari Smith Jr. feels like one of the biggest pressure points for the Rockets. He is producing 15.6 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 1.9 assists, and he is coming off a 23-point, nine-rebound game against the Hawks. The Bulls are going to load help toward Durant and crowd Sengun’s passing lanes whenever they can. Smith is the forward who can punish that by making jumpers and cleaning the glass.
Reed Sheppard is another huge one. He is at 13.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 3.4 assists while shooting 39.3% from three, and his last game was one of his best, with 23 points and 14 assists against the Heat. With VanVleet still out, Sheppard’s calm decision-making gives the Rockets a steadier offensive shape. If he hits early threes and keeps the ball moving, the Bulls’ defensive issues can get exposed fast.
Prediction
I’m taking the Rockets. The Bulls have enough offense and enough pace to make this irritating for a while, especially at home, but the overall gap is too real. The Rockets are seventh in offensive rating, eighth in defensive rating, first in rebounds, and far more trustworthy in the highest-leverage possessions. The Bulls move the ball well and can get hot from three, but they are still 23rd in defensive rating, and that is a dangerous place to live against a team with Durant and Sengun.
Prediction: Rockets 118, Bulls 112
