This one looks like the last game of the season in every way. The Timberwolves already own the No. 6 seed in the West. The Pelicans are already out. Both sides are sitting on a long list of rotation players.
Even so, there is still one real angle here: the Timberwolves get one last home game and one last tune-up before the playoffs. They host the Pelicans at Target Center on Sunday at 8:30 p.m. ET. The Timberwolves are 48-33 and 25-15 at home. The Pelicans are 26-55 and 9-31 on the road.
Recent form gives this game a little more life than the standings do. The Timberwolves just beat the Rockets 136-132 on Friday, with Anthony Edwards scoring 22 points and Terrence Shannon Jr. adding 23. The Pelicans, meanwhile, lost 144-118 to the Celtics and gave up 29 made threes. The season series is 2-1 for the Timberwolves, but the Pelicans did win the last meeting, 119-115, in February.
The names are different now because the injury report is so heavy. Donte DiVincenzo is the main available scorer for the Timberwolves, averaging 12.3 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.8 assists while shooting 38.0% from three.
For the Pelicans, Jeremiah Fears has averaged 14.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, while Derik Queen has given them 11.5 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 3.7 assists. In a game with this many absences, those are the players who shape the matchup.
Injury Report
Timberwolves
Kyle Anderson: Out (right knee injury maintenance)
Mike Conley: Out (rest)
Ayo Dosunmu: Out (right calf injury maintenance)
Anthony Edwards: Out (right knee injury maintenance)
Rudy Gobert: Out (rest)
Bones Hyland: Out (right hip injury maintenance)
Jaden McDaniels: Out (left knee injury maintenance)
Julius Randle: Out (right hand injury maintenance)
Naz Reid: Out (right shoulder injury maintenance)
Pelicans
Saddiq Bey: Out (rest)
Herbert Jones: Out (rest)
Karlo Matkovic: Out (low back injury management)
Bryce McGowens: Out (right small toe fracture)
Yves Missi: Out (right hand/finger sprain)
Trey Murphy III: Out (right ankle sprain)
Dejounte Murray: Out (left hand contusion)
Zion Williamson: Out (right knee injury management)
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The first reason is the season-long team profile. The Timberwolves have a 116.7 offensive rating and a 113.4 defensive rating. They score 117.8 points per game, shoot 48.1% from the field, and 37.1% from three. Even with half the rotation out, that is still a stronger statistical base than what the Pelicans bring into this game. The Pelicans are at a 114.4 offensive rating, an 118.8 defensive rating, 115.4 points per game, and 34.8% from three. The gap is not massive on offense, but it is clear on defense and overall efficiency.
The other edge is shot-making from the available group. DiVincenzo is a real rotation shooter. Shannon just showed he can carry usage for a night. Jaylen Clark is not a big scorer, but he gives the Timberwolves one more guard who can defend and play in structure. Against a Pelicans team that just gave up 144 points and has most of its top-end talent out, that should be enough to keep the offense stable.
There is also the simple home-game angle. The Timberwolves are not playing for seeding anymore, but this is still their last chance to clean up the details before the playoffs start. That matters more than it sounds. Teams in this spot usually want one solid performance, not a sloppy one.
Why The Pelicans Have The Advantage
The Pelicans’ best argument is freedom. They have no playoff pressure, no seed to protect, and no reason to manage the game cautiously. That can help on the last day of the season, especially against a team that is already thinking about next week. Fears, Queen, and Jordan Poole can all play aggressively, and the Pelicans have already shown they can win one in this matchup.
There is also enough young offense here to make the game messy. Fears just had a 40-point game against the Jazz earlier this week. Poole scored 34 in that same game, and Queen finished with 17 points and 12 rebounds. This is not a strong team overall, but it still has enough scoring from guards and young bigs to put pressure on a thin opponent if the shot-making starts early.
The last point is simple. The Timberwolves are resting almost everyone who matters. Edwards, Gobert, Randle, McDaniels, and Reid are all out. So while the full-season numbers favor the Timberwolves, this specific game is closer than the standings suggest. If the Pelicans get a good shooting night from Fears and Poole, they can make this uncomfortable.
X-Factors
Terrence Shannon Jr. is the main x-factor for the Timberwolves. His full-season numbers are modest, but his recent role is much bigger than that. He scored 33 against the Magic and followed it with 23 against the Rockets. With so many starters resting, this game should run through him more than usual. If he attacks the rim and gets downhill early, the Timberwolves should control the night.
Jaylen Clark is the other one. He averages only 4.0 points, but he gives the Timberwolves defensive pressure and enough activity on the perimeter to change a game that lacks star power. In a lineup-heavy finale, players like Clark often matter because they can win extra possessions without needing a big usage load.
For the Pelicans, Jeremiah Fears is the obvious swing piece. He has been one of the few consistent creators left on the floor, and his rookie year has already included a 40-point game. If he gets into the paint and makes enough pull-up jumpers, the Pelicans have a real shot to stay close.
Derik Queen is the other one. He gives the Pelicans interior scoring, rebounding, and passing, which matters in a game where both teams are missing so many regulars. If he wins the frontcourt minutes and keeps the Pelicans from falling behind on the glass, this can stay tight well into the second half.
Prediction
This should still be a Timberwolves win. They are at home, they have the better team structure, and even the reserve group has more two-way balance than the Pelicans do. But it should be closer than a normal sixth-seed versus 11th-seed matchup. Too many regulars are out for this to look clean. The Timberwolves still have enough shooting and enough guard play to get through it.
Prediction: Timberwolves 118, Pelicans 111
