The Rockets host the Grizzlies at Toyota Center on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET in the regular-season finale for two sides in different realities. The hosts are still pushing for an extra win, while the visitors keep looking ahead to the Draft.
The Rockets are 51-30, fifth in the West, and 29-11 at home. The Grizzlies are 25-56, 12th in the West, and 11-28 on the road. This game does not carry playoff pressure for either side now. The Rockets are locked into the No. 5 seed, while the Grizzlies are simply trying to get to the finish line with enough bodies to play a normal game.
Friday changed the tone of this matchup. The Rockets lost 136-132 to the Timberwolves in a game where they shot 60.9% and still could not get enough stops. The Grizzlies lost 147-101 to the Jazz, their seventh straight loss and their 20th in the last 22 games. The Grizzlies had only six available players on Friday, which says everything about where this roster is right now.
The season series has been one-sided. The Rockets lead it 3-0, with wins by 15, 9, and 10 points. The Grizzlies’ season has been unstable at best, with 47 different starting lineups and an NBA record 28 different starters. That is a hard way to build any consistency, especially against a playoff team with a real identity.
This game is also likely to look different from a normal Rockets matchup because so many regulars are out. Reed Sheppard becomes the main name to watch for the home side. He is averaging 13.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, and over his last 31 games, he has been at 15.1 points while shooting 43.6% from three.
For the Grizzlies, Dariq Whitehead is averaging 14.4 points and 4.0 rebounds, while Adama Bal has given them 10.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.4 assists. Those are the kind of names that define this matchup now, because the injury report has wiped out most of the usual stars.
Injury Report
Rockets
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle surgery)
Kevin Durant: Out (rest)
Alperen Sengun: Out (rest)
Jabari Smith Jr.: Out (rest)
Amen Thompson: Out (rest)
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Grizzlies
Santi Aldama: Out (right knee surgery recovery)
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope: Out (right 5th finger surgery recovery)
Brandon Clarke: Out (right calf strain)
Walter Clayton Jr.: Questionable (left hip impingement)
Cedric Coward: Out (low back soreness)
Zach Edey: Out (left ankle and elbow surgery recovery)
Taylor Hendricks: Out (right thumb sprain)
GG Jackson: Out (left knee injury)
Ty Jerome: Out (left ankle sprain)
Ja Morant: Out (left elbow UCL sprain)
Cam Spencer: Out (low back injury management)
Jaylen Wells: Out (right great toe surgery recovery)
Scotty Pippen Jr.: Out (right great toe surgery recovery)
Olivier-Maxence Prosper: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Adama Bal: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Javon Small: Probable (left thigh contusion)
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets still have the better team base, even with the rest day. They average 115.0 points per game, allow 110.1, and own a defensive rating of 113.4. They are also one of the league’s best rebounding teams at 47.9 per game and rank third in blocks at 5.74 per game. That gives them a simple formula even without their top scorers. Defend, rebound, and make the game physical. Against this version of the Grizzlies, that should still travel.
There is also more structure in the Rockets’ reserve group. Sheppard has had a real second-year jump, and the game notes show it clearly. He has played all 81 games, started 20 times, and has grown into a real high-volume shooter and secondary creator. Josh Okogie is not a featured scorer, but he has started 31 games and gives them one more veteran defender on the wing. That matters in a game where lineups will be thin and clean execution will probably decide everything.
The season series backs that up, too. The Rockets already beat the Grizzlies three times, and in the last meeting, they held them to 99 points and 18.9% from three. Even the March win, when Olivier-Maxence Prosper scored 31 for the Grizzlies, still ended with the Rockets controlling the rebounding battle and closing the game without much drama. The matchup has looked pretty clear all year.
Why The Grizzlies Have The Advantage
The Grizzlies’ path is narrow, but it is real. They still play with pace, and they still attack the offensive glass. Their offensive rebounding percentage is 24.9, which ranks first in the league, and they also average 14.0 made threes per game. Even with the roster broken apart, that style can create a weird game if the other side comes out flat and casual.
There is also less pressure on the Grizzlies. The Rockets know this game means nothing in the standings and are resting Kevin Durant, Alperen Sengun, Jabari Smith Jr., and Amen Thompson. The Grizzlies are also hurt everywhere, but they are at least coming in with young players who have a real reason to attack their minutes. Whitehead, Bal, Mashack, and maybe Prosper all have a chance to take a lot of shots. Sometimes that kind of game gets messy fast.
One more thing is simple fatigue math. The Grizzlies were exhausted on Friday because they had only six players, but if they get a few extra bodies back, they can at least spread the load more than they did against the Jazz. If the Rockets treat this like a pure maintenance day, the talent gap between the available groups is not overwhelming. It is still there, but it is not huge.
X-Factors
Reed Sheppard is the clearest x-factor for the Rockets. His season line is 13.5 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 3.4 assists, but the stronger detail is the trend. Over his last 31 games, he has averaged 15.1 points, and over his last 13 games, he has shot 43.6% from three. With the main scorers resting, this becomes his offense for the day. If he controls the game, the Rockets should be fine.
Josh Okogie is another one for the Rockets. He is not a volume scorer, but he has started the last two games and 31 overall. In a game like this, defense, cuts, and simple transition points have value. He can give the Rockets that without needing the ball much.
Dariq Whitehead is the main swing piece for the Grizzlies. He is averaging 14.4 points and 4.0 rebounds, and he just posted 13 points, 13 rebounds, three assists, and four steals while playing all 48 minutes against the Jazz. He is going to have freedom in this game. If he scores efficiently early, the Grizzlies can keep this close.
Adama Bal is the other one. He averages 10.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, and he just recorded his first career triple-double against the Jazz with 13 points, 15 rebounds, and 12 assists. If he is healthy enough to go, he gives the Grizzlies a real ballhandler, and that matters a lot with so many guards out.
Prediction
This should be a Rockets win, but it probably will not look like a normal Rockets game. Too many main pieces are resting. Still, the Rockets have the better team structure, the better defense, the better rebounding base, and a 3-0 edge in the season series. The Grizzlies can make this ugly because their available group will play hard and take a lot of shots, but there is just too much damage on that injury report to trust them for 48 minutes.
Prediction: Rockets 112, Grizzlies 103
