The Cavaliers host the Nuggets at Rocket Arena on Friday night (7:30 PM ET), and this one has “statement game” written all over it… mostly because the injury report is trying to hijack the entire storyline.
On paper, the Nuggets have been the better team all season. They’re 23-10, sitting 3rd in the West. The Cavaliers are 19-16 and currently 8th in the East, fighting every night to stack wins and climb.
It’s also the first time these two have matched up this season, which is fun… but it’s way less fun when the Nuggets might be missing the guy who basically runs the sport.
For the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell has been on a heater all year, putting up 29.7 points, 5.5 assists, and 4.6 rebounds per game with 49.4% from the field and 38.9% from three. Evan Mobley has added 18.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.7 blocks.
For the Nuggets, Nikola Jokic has been doing Nikola Jokic things again: 29.6 points, 12.2 rebounds, 11.0 assists per game, with 60.5% from the field and 43.5% from three. Jamal Murray has carried a massive load too at 25.1 points and 6.9 assists on 48.2% shooting and 45.3% from three.
Now the bad news: Jokic is expected to miss time, and the Nuggets’ frontcourt depth took another hit with Jonas Valanciunas ruled out for multiple weeks.
Injury Report
Cavaliers
Max Strus: Out (left foot surgery, Jones fracture)
Larry Nance Jr.: Out (right calf strain)
Chris Livingston: Out (G League, two-way)
Sam Merrill: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
De’Andre Hunter: Questionable (illness)
Nuggets
Nikola Jokic: Out (left knee injury management)
Jonas Valanciunas: Out (right calf strain)
Aaron Gordon: Out (right hamstring strain)
Christian Braun: Out (left ankle sprain)
Cameron Johnson: Out (right knee injury management)
Tamar Bates: Out (left foot surgery)
Jamal Murray: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Julian Strawther: Probable (illness)
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
This is the simple, brutal truth: if the Nuggets don’t have Jokic, the entire matchup changes. Not “a little.” Completely.
Without Jokic, the Nuggets lose the best offensive engine in basketball. The Cavaliers don’t have to deal with that constant stress of: “If we help, it’s a layup. If we don’t help, it’s a post bucket. If we double, it’s a corner three.” That’s what Jokic does to teams. And Reuters already noted he’s out for at least a month with the knee issue, which means the Nuggets are stuck playing a version of themselves that’s way more normal.
Then you add the Valanciunas news on top, and now the Nuggets don’t just miss the star. They miss the emergency backup plan too. That’s where Mobley becomes a problem. He’s the kind of big who can win possessions on defense, sprint into early offense, and punish a thin frontcourt with activity instead of just raw post-ups.
And then there’s Mitchell, who is basically built for games like this. If the Nuggets have to start selling out on him because they can’t anchor the paint the same way, he’s going to spray the ball everywhere. If they don’t sell out, he can go get 35 with a smile.
The Cavaliers also have the scoreboard profile of a team that can capitalize when the opponent shows up compromised. They’re scoring 119.6 points per game, and they’ve played solid ball at home. So even if the defense isn’t perfect possession-to-possession, they can still win this by simply putting constant pressure on Denver’s weaker lineups.
If this turns into a track meet, the Cavaliers can run. If it turns into a half-court grind, they can still lean on Mitchell’s shot creation. And if it turns into a “who has more playable bodies late” game, the injury list screams Cavaliers advantage.
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The Nuggets’ case is basically: “We still score, and we still know exactly who we are.”
Even with all the injuries, they sit 3rd in the West, and their team scoring has been outrageous. ESPN’s standings page has them at 125.1 points per game with a +7.1 point differential. That’s not some fluky profile. That’s a legit contender’s profile.
And the biggest swing factor tonight is Murray. If he plays like himself, the Nuggets have a real chance to steal this. One hot Murray quarter can erase a 12-point lead like it never existed.
This is also where the Nuggets’ style can still travel. They don’t need chaos. They want clean possessions, they want to manipulate matchups, and they want to turn the game into a decision-making contest. Without Jokic, it obviously gets harder, but the Nuggets can still hunt switches, force rotations, and see if the Cavaliers get a little too aggressive helping off shooters. If the Cavaliers start overreacting to drives and give up clean threes, the Nuggets can hang around all night.
The other angle: pressure. The Cavaliers are 8th in the East right now. They need wins, and they feel like they should win this one because of who’s out. That’s the exact kind of game where you get tight, start rushing shots, and suddenly you’re in a one-possession game with six minutes left. The Nuggets don’t need to be perfect to make this uncomfortable. They just need to drag the Cavaliers into late-game execution.
If Murray looks healthy, and if the Nuggets’ role guys hit enough threes early to keep the defense honest, this can turn into one of those annoying games where the “obvious winner” has to sweat it out to the final buzzer.
Cavaliers vs. Nuggets Prediction
I’m not overthinking it: the injuries are too much, especially up front. No Jokic and no Valanciunas is an insane disadvantage against a team with Mobley’s size and Mitchell’s scoring juice.
Murray can keep the Nuggets alive, but I think the Cavaliers eventually separate with a strong third quarter and enough stops late.
Prediction: Cavaliers 118, Nuggets 102
