The Cleveland Cavaliers have had an unpredictable season, ending the year with a 52-30 record and the No. 4 seed in the East. They looked like a potential Play-In team at one point this season, but went 21-9 over the last 30 games to safely secure their place as the fourth seed with home-court advantage for the first round.
The Cavaliers underwent a significant midseason overhaul, which saw James Harden come in as the team’s starting point guard in place of Darius Garland. Additional moves have brought the likes of Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis to the rotation as well, with expectations mounting on the Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley duo to lead the team to the Conference Finals at a minimum.
The franchise has a competitive Playoff rotation, although with one glaring weakness in its lineup. But can Harden be flanked by a scorer of Mitchell’s caliber and a defender of Mobley’s caliber and finally overcome the Playoff blues that have surrounded him his entire career? We’ll have to see.
Starters
James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
The Cavaliers will feel that four out of their five starting lineup players are among the best in their position in the Eastern Conference. Harden joined the team in February and has averaged 20.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 7.7 assists in 26 games, helping Mitchell with the team’s offensive load after the star guard looked clearly worn down after having an overloaded plate for the first half of the season. Mitchell averaged 27.9 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.7 assists this season and is hoping to earn another All-NBA selection for his services.
The frontcourt duo of Mobley and Jarrett Allen might be one of the most intimidating in the Eastern Conference. Mobley is a former Defensive Player of the Year who averaged 18.2 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 1.7 blocks this season. While his lack of offensive development has had fans and experts frustrated, Harden’s arrival has led to a noticeable bump in production from Mobley. The same can be said for Allen, who’s averaged 15.4 points and 8.5 rebounds this season, and is thriving with a pass-first point guard like Harden feeding him and running the offense.
The major question mark in their lineup comes with the starting small forward position. The team has three contenders for the role, but all have had limited consistency in that role. Our pick right now is Dean Wade, who’s averaged 5.8 points and 4.2 rebounds as a makeshift small forward this season. Wade provides high-effort defense and the ability to stretch the floor.
With Max Strus missing most of the season with injury, Wade might be the safest option for the Cavaliers to rely on, especially due to his superior defensive ability compared to Strus.
Harden has found a way to make the team click offensively while Mitchell is excelling as the team’s signature scorer. If the Allen-Mobley frontcourt can perform at a high defensive level while giving supplemental offensive production, the Cavaliers will have a strong formula for victory, regardless of who they use as the fifth starter at small forward.
Bench
Dennis Schroder, Sam Merrill, Max Strus, Keon Ellis, Jaylon Tyson, Craig Porter Jr., Thomas Bryant, Tyrese Proctor, Nae’Qwan Tomlin, Larry Nance Jr.
The Cavaliers made multiple intentional moves to boost their bench production this season. Their Playoff bench unit will feature veteran guard Dennis Schroder, who’s averaged 8.2 points and 4.3 assists since joining the team in February. Schroder’s minutes likely mean either Mitchell or Harden is on the bench, so the Cavaliers will have to regulate his participation carefully to create structurally sound lineups while also ensuring Harden and Mitchell shine as featured ball-handlers.
Strus will be the first forward off the bench, averaging 11.2 points and 5.4 rebounds on 40.2% from three this season. He might be the best shooting option on the roster outside guard Sam Merrill, who’s averaging 12.8 points on 42.4% from three this season. Merrill has proven himself as a reliable shooter, and it’s hard to see his minutes disappearing if Strus can’t carry his offensive load consistently. Jaylon Tyson might get opportunities as well, with the 23-year-old small forward averaging 13.2 points and 5.1 rebounds.
Keon Ellis has averaged 8.3 points and 1.3 steals in 29 games since joining the Cavaliers, primarily as a defensive presence. He’s also been used as the fifth man alongside their core four as an elite defender, but his 6’4″ presence on the frontline makes the Cavs too undersized alongside Harden and Mitchell.
Thomas Bryant has averaged 6.2 points and 3.4 rebounds this season and is the team’s only reliable backup center option.
Closing Lineup
James Harden, Donovan Mitchell, Dean Wade, Evan Mobley, Jarrett Allen
The Cavaliers will likely stick to whatever starting lineup they choose as the closing lineup. They don’t really have the depth to mix-and-match players from their roster, so it’s best for them to stick with the most functional lineup they can. However, the fifth man in the lineup will likely change from game-to-game based on production.
If Wade is having an anonymous or inefficient game, the Cavaliers might rely on Strus in the closing lineup. If they need a defensive boost, it will not be surprising to see Ellis get minutes and plug any holes on point-of-attack defense against other star guards. Outside of that, the core four have cemented spots in the lineup regardless of how they’re performing, unless Allen specifically is made redundant by small lineups, which exploit his limited perimeter mobility as a weakness.
Road To The NBA Finals
The Cavaliers face off against the Toronto Raptors in the 4-5 matchup. The Cavaliers will hope their Playoff experience and home-court advantage will keep a feisty Raptors team at bay. Toronto has the defensive pieces to jam Cleveland’s offense, but the Cavaliers can respond similarly with their defensive pieces. This will not be a high-scoring series unless Mitchell and Harden find ways to break the Raptors’ defense open. Cleveland went winless in three games against the Raptors this season, making this a dangerous matchup.
If the Raptors are defeated, the Cavaliers will face the winner of the 1-8 series, likely bringing the No. 1 seed Detroit Pistons into their path to the NBA Finals. This will be a big challenge for the Cavaliers, as the Pistons have been one of the best defensive teams in the NBA all season. If they can use veteran tactics to get the young Pistons off-balance, this will be an upset win for the Cavaliers, who return to the Conference Finals for the first time since the 2018 Playoffs. The Cavs are 3-2 against Detroit this season.
The Cavs could match up with any of the four teams across the bracket. The Boston Celtics or the New York Knicks are favored to come out of that side of the bracket and reach the Eastern Conference Finals. The Cavaliers have the pieces to match up against both, but it’s hard to say they’d be considered favorites against either, given their midseason makeover. But getting to the NBA Finals is never easy, so the Cavaliers have to take on these challenges and win to make something of their season.
