The San Antonio Spurs host the Cleveland Cavaliers at Frost Bank Center on Monday night, with tip-off set for 8:00 PM ET. The Spurs enter at 23-8, sitting 2nd in the West, while the Cavaliers come in at 17-16, sitting 8th in the East.
These teams already played once this season, and the Cavaliers took it 130-117 on December 5, so they lead the season series 1-0.
This matchup has real star juice. Victor Wembanyama is putting up 23.9 points, 11.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game on 51.8% from the field. De’Aaron Fox sits at 21.9 points and 6.1 assists per game, and he’s the Spurs’ tempo-setter when he’s out there.
For the Cavaliers, Donovan Mitchell has been nuclear at 30.2 points per game on 49.7% from the field, and Evan Mobley gives them a second star-level impact at 18.3 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game.
Injury Report
Spurs
De’Aaron Fox: Questionable (left adductor tightness, illness)
Cavaliers
Larry Nance Jr.: Out (right calf strain)
Max Strus: Out (left foot surgery)
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The obvious edge is the Wembanyama problem. If he controls the glass, swallows the paint, and forces the Cavaliers into floaters and late kickouts, the Spurs can turn this into one of those games that feels over even when the score is close. And with Fox questionable, the Spurs still have enough creation to survive because their supporting cast has real production, not just “energy minutes.”
Stephon Castle has been a legit engine. He’s averaging 18.6 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 7.0 assists per game on 50.9% from the field. That’s a ton of rim pressure and playmaking, and it matters against a Cavaliers defense that can get shaky when Mitchell has to carry too much offense.
Devin Vassell is the spacing swing. He’s at 15.3 points per game, and he’s hitting 38.5% from three while taking 7.0 threes per game. If Vassell hits early, the Cavaliers can’t load up on Wembanyama’s touches or Castle’s drives. That’s how the Spurs turn good possessions into great ones.
Then there’s Keldon Johnson, who has quietly been a bully in his role. He’s averaging 13.3 points and 6.5 rebounds per game while shooting 58.2% from the field. Those are pure “winning role guy” numbers, and he can punish smaller lineups if the Cavaliers try to get cute with matchups.
If Fox plays, the Spurs’ ceiling jumps. If he sits, I still like the Spurs’ structure because Castle and Vassell give them enough offense to let Wembanyama decide the game on defense.
Why The Cavaliers Have The Advantage
The Cavaliers’ advantage starts with Mitchell. When he’s in one of those “I’m getting 30 no matter what” modes, game plans start breaking. And with Mobley back in the mix, the Cavaliers can actually play through a second creator who isn’t just a spot-up threat.
But the key for the Cavaliers is their supporting trio, because they can win this game in the margins if those guys show up.
Darius Garland is the pace stabilizer. He’s averaging 17.0 points and 6.7 assists per game. If he keeps the offense organized and makes the Spurs chase through actions, he can pull Wembanyama away from the rim more often than the Spurs want.
Jarrett Allen gives the Cavaliers a real counter inside. He’s at 13.2 points and 7.3 rebounds per game while shooting 60.3% from the field. If Allen can finish through contact and keep Mobley clean on the glass, the Cavaliers can keep the game from turning into a Wembanyama rebounding clinic.
If the Cavaliers can win the shot-making battle on the perimeter and force the Spurs into half-court possessions without Fox, they’ve got a real path to stealing this one.
Spurs vs. Cavaliers Prediction
I’m leaning Spurs at home. Wembanyama’s two-way impact feels like the cleanest “difference-maker” in this matchup, and the Spurs’ supporting cast has enough juice to keep the offense afloat even if Fox isn’t 100%.
Prediction: Spurs 116, Cavaliers 111
