The Dallas Mavericks’ future now hinges on a miracle—landing Cooper Flagg in the 2025 NBA Draft. What started as a hopeful season with Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving leading the way has quickly turned into a disaster.
Irving’s ACL tear ended any playoff dreams, and with reports suggesting Davis may be shut down for the rest of the year to ensure his long-term health, the Mavericks find themselves in a freefall. After trading Luka Doncic, they had built their roster around Davis and Irving, but in just 30 days, that vision has crumbled.
The Mavs’ best option now is to fully embrace the tank and hope for a draft lottery miracle. As things stand, Dallas has the 15th-best record in the NBA at 32-31, meaning 14 teams have a worse record. But that could change drastically if the Mavericks commit to losing.
With just 19 games left in the season, they have no path to winning a championship, multiple role players are dealing with injuries, and they still own their first-round pick. All the ingredients are there for a stealth tank job that could push them into the mix for the No. 1 pick.
Cooper Flagg is the exact kind of generational talent that Dallas needs. A dominant defensive force with the potential to be an elite two-way player, Flagg would fit perfectly into general manager Nico Harrison’s vision for the team.
If the Mavericks somehow land him, they would boast a terrifying defensive core alongside Davis, Daniel Gafford, and Dereck Lively II. And when Irving and Davis return next season, Flagg could learn from them, easing into his role before eventually becoming the franchise cornerstone.
At the moment, the Mavericks are outside the range of serious contention for the No. 1 pick. But if they slide into the sixth-to-eighth-worst record range, their lottery odds improve dramatically. Currently, they have just a 1.0% chance to land the top pick, a 1.1% chance at No. 2, a 1.2% chance at No. 3, and a 1.4% chance at No. 4. They are overwhelmingly likely (92.9%) to end up with the 13th pick.
However, if they drop into the 6th-worst record range, their odds would skyrocket. The sixth-worst team in the lottery has an 8.3% chance to land the No. 1 pick and an 8.6% chance at No. 2.
The seventh-worst team gets an 8.2% shot at the top pick and an 8.5% shot at No. 2. These odds still aren’t great, but they provide a real opportunity to sneak into the top five, where they could land other top prospects like Dylan Harper or Ace Bailey if Flagg is off the board.
Another option for Dallas would be to trade for the pick of one of the five worst teams before the draft lottery and pray that it lands at No. 1. The Mavericks have valuable young players and assets they could use to acquire a high pick before the ping pong balls are drawn.
This strategy carries risk, as the pick could still fall outside the top three, but it would give them a much better shot at landing Flagg. If they wait until after the lottery, the price to trade up would skyrocket—since Flagg is widely expected to be the No. 1 overall pick. At that point, any team holding the top selection would demand major assets, forcing the Mavericks to part with key pieces of their roster.
Several teams currently sit below the Mavericks in the standings, but a losing streak could put Dallas in contention for a high pick. The Wizards (12-49), Hornets (14-47), Jazz (15-47), Pelicans (17-45), and Raptors (20-42) are almost certain to finish in the bottom five.
Meanwhile, the Sixers (21-40), Nets (21-40), and Bulls (24-38) round out the next tier of lottery-bound teams. If the Mavericks lose 17 out of their 19 games, they could slide in just behind them.
The next seven teams—Spurs, Trail Blazers, Hawks, Magic, Suns, Heat—are all likely to finish ahead of the Mavericks, further pushing Dallas toward a potential lottery spot. If they continue losing, they will have a realistic chance to land in the 6th to 8th-worst record range, which dramatically improves their odds of a high draft pick.
At this point, competing for the play-in tournament would be a wasted effort. Without Irving and Davis, the Mavericks have no realistic shot at making noise in the postseason. Instead, their best chance at securing a long-term future is to fully embrace the tank and pray the lottery gods smile upon them.
Cooper Flagg could be the player who saves this franchise. But for Dallas, getting him will require a calculated fall to the bottom of the standings and a whole lot of luck on draft night.
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