The Mavericks host the Spurs at American Airlines Center on Thursday, February 5, 2026, at 8:30 PM ET.
The Mavericks come in at 19-31 (14-15 at home). The Spurs are 34-16 (15-10 on the road), and they’ve been stacking wins lately.
The Spurs just beat the Thunder 116-106, while the Mavericks dropped a 110-100 game to the Celtics and are searching for something stable in the middle of a brutal stretch.
It’s already 1-0 Spurs, and the first one was a statement-level blowout (125-92) on this floor. That’s why this rematch matters.
Victor Wembanyama (24.0 points, 11.1 rebounds) has the nightly advantage, plus De’Aaron Fox (19.7 points, 6.2 assists) is giving them a real downhill pace every game.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg (20.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists) is the whole thing right now, and with the injury list looking like a wrecking ball, his two-way workload is about to be ridiculous again.
There’s a notable mention to be made: The Mavericks just traded Anthony Davis (plus D’Angelo Russel, Jaden Hardy, and Dante Exum) to the Wizards, so the team is carrying that emotional baggage over them after the deadline.
Injury Report
Mavericks
Anthony Davis: Out (not with team)
Dante Exum: Out (not with team)
Jaden Hardy: Out (not with team)
D’Angelo Russell: Out (not with team)
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
P.J. Washington: Out (concussion protocol)
Daniel Gafford: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Brandon Williams: Questionable (right lower leg contusion)
Spurs
Jeremy Sochan: Out (left quad strain)
Lindy Waters III: Out (left knee hyperextension)
Luke Kornet: Out (left adductor tightness; left ankle soreness)
Kelly Olynyk: Questionable (left foot sprain)
Dylan Harper: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
It’s basically two things: home comfort and shot volume, because the margins are thin with this availability. The Mavericks are at 47.0% from the field and 25.1 assists per game, which is respectable, and they also block a ton of shots (5.6). If they can turn this into a half-court, grind-it-out game and win the “protect the rim, don’t foul” minutes, they can keep it close.
The other angle is pace control. The Spurs score more (116.9) and defend better (111.8 allowed), so the Mavericks can’t play fast and sloppy. They need the game to be slower and cleaner, where Flagg can hunt matchups and not spend the whole night in scramble mode.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
This is where the team stats make it blunt. The Spurs are scoring 116.9 points per game while allowing 111.8. The Mavericks are scoring 113.8 while allowing 116.5. That’s a pretty clean “one team is winning both ends” profile.
And the availability gap is brutal. With almost their entire starting lineup out, and the Davis trade, the Mavericks are missing their best rim pressure, a ton of rebounding muscle, and most of their late-clock scoring comfort. That’s exactly where Wembanyama swings games, because he turns misses into run-outs, and he turns drives into bad decisions.
Also, the Spurs’ defensive stats are strong enough to punish a thin roster. They’re at 7.7 steals per game and 5.0 blocks, and the Mavericks already have to play smaller and more improvised. If the Spurs win the possession battle, this can get away quickly like Game 1 did.
X-Factors
For the Mavericks, Daniel Gafford is massive if he can play. Even in a smaller role, he’s at 8.1 points and 6.6 rebounds on 63.1% shooting, and he’s the cleanest way to survive the non-Flagg possessions defensively when Wembanyama is living at the rim.
And Flagg is obviously the final boss. His line is 20.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and the big question is whether he can create enough clean threes for everyone else while also carrying the primary defensive matchup load. If he’s superhuman again, the Mavericks can hang. If he’s just “really good,” the Spurs’ depth wins the minutes.
Stephon Castle is the Spurs swing piece because he’s the “make it easy” guy. He’s at 16.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.0 assists, and in a matchup where the Mavericks are short on creators, Castle’s ability to keep pressure on the rim without turning it over can break the game open in the middle quarters.
Keldon Johnson is the other Spurs needle-mover. He’s at 13.6 points and 6.0 rebounds on 55.1% from the field, and he’s exactly the type who punishes tired legs with straight-line drives and second-chance boards. If he wins the “energy scorer” minutes, the Mavericks don’t have enough offense to trade back.
Prediction
I’m taking the Spurs. The team profile is stronger on both ends (116.9 scored, 111.8 allowed), they already punched the Mavericks once in this building (125-92), and the Mavericks’ injury stack removes too many answers at the rim and too much late-clock scoring.
Prediction: Spurs 118, Mavericks 106
