American Airlines Center gets a strange late-season game on Monday, March 23, at 9:30 p.m. ET, between the Dallas Mavericks and the Golden State Warriors.
The Mavericks are 23-48, 13th in the West, and 14-22 at home. The Warriors are 33-38, 10th in the West, and 14-23 on the road. One team is trying to stop the bleeding. The other is trying to hold onto the last play-in spot.
The Warriors come in after a 126-110 loss on Saturday to the Hawks, their third straight defeat and eighth in the last nine. The Mavericks are also coming off a Saturday loss, falling 138-131 in overtime to the Clippers for their third straight setback and 11th consecutive home loss.
There is already a clean read on this matchup from the first two meetings. The Warriors won the opener 126-116 on December 25, and the Mavericks answered with a 123-115 win on January 22. Both teams won at home, and both games were decided by who got cleaner offense late.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg is at 20.1 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 4.5 assists, while P.J. Washington has produced 14.3 points and 7.0 rebounds.
For the Warriors, Brandin Podziemski is putting up 12.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, and Kristaps Porzingis has given them 16.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.6 assists when available.
This game is mostly about whether the Mavericks can turn it into a physical paint game. If it stays organized and skill-based, the Warriors still have a cleaner offensive framework even without Stephen Curry.
Injury Report
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Brandon Williams: Doubtful (concussion protocol)
Caleb Martin: Questionable (right heel contusion)
Warriors
Stephen Curry: Out (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL tear)
Seth Curry: Out (left adductor strain)
Al Horford: Out (right soleus strain)
Quinten Post: Out (right foot injury management)
Moses Moody: Questionable (right wrist sprain)
De’Anthony Melton: Probable (left hand contusion)
Kristaps Porzingis: Probable (left low back injury management)
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ path is pretty obvious. They have to live in the paint, get to the line, and make the Warriors defend through contact for a full night. They are scoring 53.4 points in the paint per game, which ranks fourth in the league, and they are averaging 25.4 free-throw attempts, which ranks eighth. They also grab 44.9 rebounds per game. That is not an elegant formula, but it is a real one against a Warriors team with a 114.8 defensive rating, which ranks 15th.
There is also a rotation angle that favors the home side more than the records suggest. The Warriors are finishing a rough trip and will be without Stephen Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Al Horford, with Moses Moody still uncertain. They are 6-15 without Curry this season, and the offense loses a lot of late-possession clarity when he is not out there. That gives the Mavericks a clearer target. They do not have to defend a fully functioning version of this team. They have to survive a short-handed one that has lost three straight and four of five on this trip.
The other piece is that Flagg is more than good enough now to bend a game like this, especially against smaller lineups. He had 21 points and 11 rebounds in the Jan. 22 win over the Warriors, and he nearly posted another double-double against the Clippers on Saturday with 18 points and 10 boards. The Mavericks are not a good offensive team overall. Their 110.9 offensive rating ranks 28th, their 25.1 assists rank 24th, and their 34.3% from three ranks 27th. But when Flagg gets downhill, and the game turns scrappy, they at least have a real offensive engine to build around.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors still have the more trustworthy team structure, even with the injuries. They own a 114.9 offensive rating, which ranks 18th, and a 114.8 defensive rating, which ranks 15th. Those are not elite numbers, but they are still stronger than the Mavericks’ profile, which sits at 110.9 on offense, 28th in the league, and 116.0 on defense, 18th. The gap is not huge defensively. It is much more meaningful on the offensive side, where the Mavericks still struggle to manufacture clean possessions over 48 minutes.
The clearest Warriors edge is how they move the ball and how often they create chaos. They average 28.9 assists per game, which ranks third in the NBA, and 9.8 steals per game, which ranks second. They also play at a 99.29 pace, which is among the fastest marks in the league. That style can expose a Mavericks team that averages only 25.1 assists, ranks 24th in that category, and has looked shaky whenever the first action gets blown up. The Warriors are not unbeatable without Curry. But they are still capable of turning a game messy in the right way.
There is also a simple urgency edge here. The Warriors can eliminate the Mavericks from postseason contention with a win, and they are still trying to protect the last play-in spot while chasing better position. The Mavericks, meanwhile, have dropped three straight and are 2-12 since Feb. 26. That does not mean the game will be easy. It does mean the Warriors walk in with a cleaner competitive target and a little more experience in games that tighten up late. If this comes down to execution in the final four minutes, I trust their offensive habits more than the Mavericks’ current version.
X-Factors
Naji Marshall is a huge one for the Mavericks. He is averaging 15.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 3.2 assists while shooting 52.0% from the field. He had 30 points and nine assists in the Jan. 22 win over the Warriors, and he is coming off another strong night with 28 against the Clippers. The Mavericks need his downhill scoring because the Warriors will load up on Flagg whenever they can. If Marshall wins those secondary creation possessions, the home side gets much harder to scheme against.
Klay Thompson is the other obvious swing piece. He is at 11.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 1.4 assists, and he is still shooting 38.0% from three. The Mavericks do not have enough spacing to waste his clean looks. If Thompson hits early catch-and-shoot threes, the Warriors lose some freedom to crowd the paint and tag Flagg on drives. If he goes quiet, the floor can get cramped fast.
De’Anthony Melton feels like one of the key Warriors pressure points. He has posted 13.3 points, 3.0 rebounds, 2.4 assists, and 1.5 steals, and he just scored 20 against the Hawks after putting up 14 against the Pistons. He gives the Warriors a real point-of-attack defender and one of the few guards on the roster who can create a little offense without hijacking possessions. In a game where Curry is still out, that stability matters a lot.
Kristaps Porzingis is the other one. He is putting up 16.5 points, 4.8 rebounds, 2.6 assists, and 1.5 blocks, and if he is healthy enough to go, he changes the geometry of the game. The Mavericks are already without Lively, and their frontcourt depth has been fragile for weeks. Porzingis can punish that by dragging a big man away from the rim, opening slips and cuts for everyone else. If he looks close to full strength, the Warriors’ offense gets a lot easier to trust.
Prediction
I’m taking the Warriors, but not comfortably. The Mavericks have a real route here through paint pressure, free throws, and Flagg’s creation, and the injury report gives them a better shot than the records alone would suggest. Still, the Warriors have the better team framework. They are third in assists, second in steals, and noticeably cleaner on offense than a Mavericks team that ranks 28th in offensive rating and 27th in three-point percentage. Even without Curry, I trust the Warriors a little more to get the right shot when the game gets tight.
Prediction: Warriors 116, Mavericks 111
