The Denver Nuggets entered the season as the team with the best chances to unseat the reigning NBA Champions OKC Thunder in the West. While the emergence of the San Antonio Spurs has bumped them down to the No. 3 seed, the Nuggets are still one of the most dangerous teams in the NBA.
They earned their record in a very competitive conference despite most core players missing over 20 games. The team has the best offensive rating in the NBA (121.2) and a 116.0 defensive rating this season, leading the NBA in points per game (122.1) as well. With the core rotation expected to be healthy to start the Playoffs, there’ll be high expectations on them to lead the Nuggets through the West and to another title.
Their roster features a strong mixture of two-way players, with multiple members of the 2023 NBA Championship core still present. They’ll have an interesting challenge between Peyton Watson and Cameron Johnson for their starting small forward position, but that’s a good problem to have. Ultimately, it’s Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray who will bear the weight of the team’s Playoff success on their shoulders.
Starters
Jamal Murray, Christian Braun, Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
The Nuggets have one of the most complete starting fives in the NBA. Jamal Murray is an offensively dynamic point guard who’s averaging 25.4 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.1 assists in 75 games this season. He fits like a glove next to Jokic, and his contributions are crucial for any Playoff success the franchise is hoping to have. Christian Braun completes the backcourt as a positive defender who can stretch the floor, averaging 12.0 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in 44 games.
Cam Johnson will likely get the starting nod over Watson, given that he has more starts on the season and is a veteran in the NBA. Johnson’s first season with the Nuggets was underwhelming, as he averaged 12.2 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 2.4 assists in 54 games. However, his form has picked up late in the season, and he’s showing why he might have been the perfect small forward for the Nuggets all along. He’s an elite offensive threat who can hold his own defensively while happily embracing his role as the glue guy on the court.
Aaron Gordon’s arrival in 2021 started Denver’s push as perennial title contenders in the Jokic-Murray era. Like Braun and Johnson, Gordon has also had an injury-riddled season, averaging 16.2 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.7 assists in 36 games. When he’s played, Gordon has looked like an efficient offensive contributor who still anchors the Nuggets defensively. Without him, their defensive structure falls apart, making him an indispensable piece to the franchise’s success.
None of the players above could be considered championship contenders on a team without their starting center, Nikola Jokic. Jokic averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.7 assists in 65 games in a historic season where he also averaged a triple-double for the second consecutive season. Jokic is the beating heart that pumps blood through Denver’s offense. His efficiency and skill on the ball have made him the best player of his decade so far, as he presents potentially the biggest individual challenge any team in the Playoffs might have to game plan for.
Bench
Peyton Watson, Tim Hardaway Jr., Bruce Brown, Jonas Valanciunas, Julian Strawther, DaRon Holmes II, Spencer Jones, Tyus Jones, Zeke Nnaji, Jalen Pickett
The key piece off the Nuggets bench when fully healthy is 23-year-old forward Peyton Watson. Watson’s jump in offensive production this season, averaging 14.6 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.1 assists, has excited fans about how impactful he could be in the Playoffs. He’s unlikely to be the starter, but that’s also because he could effortlessly plug into the Nuggets’ lineup in Johnson or Gordon’s role in the frontcourt. He’ll be one of their biggest x-factors throughout the Playoffs, as Watson’s production could be make-or-break for the Nuggets in challenging games.
Tim Hardaway Jr. and Bruce Brown will be capable backup shooting guard options behind the slightly inconsistent Braun. While Braun has more two-way viability, both Hardaway Jr. and Brown are specialists. Hardaway can light up any defense, averaging 13.5 points as a bench scorer this season, while Brown is averaging 7.9 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 2.1 assists as a defensive pest in the secondary unit. Both could play heavy minutes alongside the starters, depending on Braun’s form.
Jonas Valanciunas and Julian Strawther could also receive minutes in the Playoff rotation as key swing players. Valanciunas is Jokic’s backup and has averaged 8.7 points and 5.1 rebounds this season. Strawther can play as a swingman in the backcourt or on the wing, averaging 7.2 points on 38.7% from three this season.
Closing Lineup
Jamal Murray, Bruce Brown, Peyton Watson/Cam Johnson, Aaron Gordon, Nikola Jokic
It’s hard to conclusively say what Denver’s go-to closing lineup will be in the Playoffs. Bruce Brown has been getting increased opportunities in clutch situations due to his defensive pressure and reliable floor-spacing ability. He was also key in their 2023 Championship run in that role, so the team might default to that in clutch situations instead of the younger Braun, although that might depend on production on the day.
They’ll likely tweak the starting small forward based on the situation. If they need defense to hold onto a lead, Watson will likely get the nod over Johnson. But if they need to chase a score down, Johnson’s ability on the wing might be preferred. Either way, both will get a lot of run in Denver’s closing lineups throughout the postseason.
Road To The NBA Finals
The Nuggets’ first-round opponent is the Minnesota Timberwolves in the 3-6 matchup. The Nuggets will have home-court advantage in this rematch of the 2024 West Conference Semifinals, where the Nuggets blew a 3-2 lead to the Anthony Edwards-led Timberwolves. It’s a different roster now with Julius Randle instead of Karl-Anthony Towns in the frontcourt, so it’ll be interesting to see how it plays out. Denver won the season series 3-1, and this will be a tricky one to come out of.
If they make it through Minnesota, they’ll be heading into a second-round matchup against either the No. 2 seed San Antonio Spurs or the No. 7 seed Portland Trail Blazers.
The Spurs will be a difficult challenge for the Nuggets, with Victor Wembanyama guarding Jokic. Despite that, Denver did win the season series 3-1 and will like their chances against an inexperienced Spurs squad. The Blazers would have to shock the world to make it past the 62-20 Spurs. The Nuggets also have a 3-1 season record against them, but they’d be a considerably easier challenge than San Antonio. Regardless, Denver would face a young team with no prior Playoff experience in the second round.
A matchup with the No. 1 seed OKC Thunder wouldn’t come until the Western Conference Finals at the earliest The Nuggets have a 1-4 record against the Thunder and will need to go through them to return to the NBA Finals, unless they fall to a shock first-round exit to the No. 8 seed, or in the second round to the winner of Lakers vs. Rockets.
