The Nuggets host the Timberwolves in Game 5 at Ball Arena on Monday, April 27, at 10:30 p.m. ET. The Timberwolves lead the first-round series 3-1 after winning Game 4, 112-96, but the series now looks very different because Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo were both injured in that win.
Ayo Dosunmu has become the story of the series for the Timberwolves. He is averaging 22.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 4.0 assists, and Game 4 was the “Ayo Game”: 43 points off the bench on 13-of-17 shooting, 5-of-5 from three, and 12-of-12 from the line. Nikola Jokic leads the Nuggets with 25.0 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 7.8 assists, but the Nuggets are down 3-1 because their offense has been too uneven around him.
Game 4 was supposed to be the Timberwolves’ breaking point. DiVincenzo went down 1:19 into the game, Edwards left late in the first half, and the Timberwolves still won the second half 62-42. That is the problem for the Nuggets. They got the injury break, but they did not get the basketball response.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Aaron Gordon: Questionable (left calf tightness)
Peyton Watson: Out (right hamstring strain)
Timberwolves
Donte DiVincenzo: Out (right Achilles tendon repair)
Anthony Edwards: Out (left knee bone bruise)
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The Nuggets’ advantage is obvious: Game 5 is at home, Edwards is out, DiVincenzo is out, and the Nuggets still have Jokic and Murray. That should be enough to extend the series. Jokic had 24 points, 15 rebounds, and nine assists in Game 4, while Murray scored 30 points. The Nuggets lost anyway because they got almost nothing efficient from the rest of the rotation.
The adjustment is not just “give Jokic the ball.” The Nuggets already do that. They need better spacing and faster decisions around him. Cameron Johnson had nine points in Game 4, Aaron Gordon had nine, Christian Braun had eight, and Tim Hardaway Jr. shot 0-of-6 from three. That is not enough shot-making against a Timberwolves defense that is shrinking the floor.
Gordon’s status is huge. When he missed Game 3, the Nuggets lost size and rim pressure. When he returned in Game 4, he played 23 minutes but had only nine points and one rebound. If Gordon is limited again, the Nuggets become easier to guard because the Timberwolves can stay home on shooters and live with Jokic’s post touches.
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The Timberwolves have a 3-1 lead because their defense has traveled across the series. They held the Nuggets to 96 points in both Games 3 and 4. In Game 4, the Nuggets shot 37.9% from the field and 21.4% from three, even with Jokic and Jamal Murray combining for 54 points. That is the main issue for the Nuggets: their stars can score, but the Timberwolves are cutting off the easy passing reads and forcing too many isolated possessions.
The Game 5 adjustment is clear. Without Edwards and DiVincenzo, the Timberwolves cannot play the same way offensively, but they can still win if Dosunmu, Julius Randle, Naz Reid, and Jaden McDaniels keep the ball moving. In Game 4, the Timberwolves had 22 assists and only 12 turnovers, despite losing both starting guards. They also grabbed 50 rebounds, including 16 offensive rebounds. That effort level covered the injuries.
Randle has to be more controlled now. He had 15 points, nine rebounds, and two assists in Game 4, but also four turnovers. With Edwards out, he becomes a primary half-court creator. The Timberwolves need him attacking mismatches, not forcing drives into Jokic or Aaron Gordon. If he plays through contact and makes simple reads, the Timberwolves still have enough scoring to close the series.
X-Factors
Cameron Johnson is the Nuggets’ key role player. He is averaging 10.0 points in the series, but Game 4 showed why the Nuggets need more from him. He had nine points on six shots, while the Nuggets shot only 6-of-28 from three. If Johnson does not stretch the defense, Jokic and Murray have to play in a crowd all night.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is the other Nuggets swing piece. He is averaging 11.0 points in the series, but Game 4 was rough: 10 points on 3-of-10 shooting and 0-of-6 from three. The Nuggets need his volume shooting, especially with Watson out and Gordon not fully healthy. If Hardaway misses again, the Timberwolves can keep loading up on Murray’s side of the floor.
Naz Reid is now one of the Timberwolves’ most important players. He is averaging 9.5 points and 6.8 rebounds in the series, and he had 17 points and nine rebounds in Game 4. With DiVincenzo out and Edwards unavailable, Reid’s scoring is no longer a bonus. It is required. His ability to stretch the floor also pulls Jokic away from the rim.
Bones Hyland has to give the Timberwolves guard minutes without losing structure. He had eight points and seven assists in Game 4, and that assist number matters more than the scoring. The Timberwolves do not need him to replace Edwards. They need him to push pace, get Randle touches in good spots, and avoid live-ball turnovers.
Prediction
The Timberwolves are tougher than the injury report suggests, and Game 4 proved that. Still, Game 5 feels like the Nuggets’ best chance to extend the series. Edwards and DiVincenzo being out changes the shot-creation math too much. Dosunmu will not score 43 again, and the Nuggets should get a stronger home response from their role players. I trust Jokic and Murray to keep the series alive, but not enough to say the Nuggets have solved the matchup.
Prediction: Nuggets 108, Timberwolves 102
