The Thunder host the Nuggets at Paycom Center on Friday, February 27, at 9:30 PM ET. The Thunder are 45-15 and first in the West, while the Nuggets are 37-22 and fourth.
Home and road context sets the tone: the Thunder are 24-7 at home, and the Nuggets are 21-11 on the road, so both teams come in with real travel-proof profiles.
The Thunder’s last game was a 124-116 loss to the Pistons, and the Nuggets most recently beat the Celtics 103-84.
They’ve seen each other once so far this season, a 121-111 Thunder win on February 1, giving the Thunder a 1-0 edge in the series.
On the star lines, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander brings 31.8 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 6.4 assists, with Chet Holmgren at 17.2 points and 8.8 rebounds; on the visiting side, Nikola Jokic is posting 28.8 points, 12.5 rebounds, and 10.4 assists, while Jamal Murray is at 25.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 7.4 assists.
The key wrinkle is availability at the top: Gilgeous-Alexander is cleared to return after missing nine straight games with an abdominal strain, which changes the shot-creation baseline immediately.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Aaron Gordon: Out (right hamstring strain)
Peyton Watson: Out (right hamstring strain)
Tamar Bates: Out (left foot surgery)
Curtis Jones: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Jamal Murray: Questionable (illness)
Julian Strawther: Probable (left great toe sprain)
Spencer Jones: Questionable (right shoulder strain)
Jalen Pickett: Questionable (right knee soreness)
Thunder
Jalen Williams: Out (right hamstring strain)
Ajay Mitchell: Out (abdominal strain/left ankle sprain)
Branden Carlson: Out (low back strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right acl surgical recovery)
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The Thunder’s case starts with defense that dictates where possessions go. They rank second in opponent points per game at 108.0, and they’re first in defensive rating at 106.4, which is how they keep games stable even when lineups shift.
They also choke off the easy stuff that usually bails teams out. The Thunder are first in opponent fastbreak points allowed at 11.8, so opponents don’t get to live off live-ball chaos and runway layups.
On the other end, the Thunder still scores enough to punish small mistakes. They’re at 119.4 points per game (fourth) with a league-best average scoring margin at +11.4, which is usually what separates them in second halves.
They also take care of the ball at a top level. The Thunder are second in turnovers per game at 12.7, and that matters against a Nuggets team that wants to win by never giving away possessions.
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
The Nuggets bring the league’s most reliable offense, and it shows up in the basic production. They’re first in points per game at 120.8 and ninth in assists per game at 28.2, which speaks to the same thing: they generate good shots, and they generate them repeatedly.
They also protect possessions as well as anyone. The Nuggets are third in turnovers per game at 12.8, so they rarely beat themselves, which is a big deal against a defense that thrives on short-circuiting sloppy trips.
Rebounding is another quiet lever. The Nuggets are fifth in opponent rebounds per game, allowing 51.1, which helps them finish defensive possessions and avoid giving great defense extra chances to compound stops.
The risk is defensive vulnerability if the game turns into a track meet. The Nuggets are 19th in opponent points per game at 116.3, so if the Thunder speed it up and turn stops into quick points, the Nuggets can get dragged into a higher-variance game they don’t need.
X-Factors
Jared McCain is first because he’s the kind of guard who can swing a short-handed rotation with one hot stretch (11.8 PPG in 8 Thunder games). McCain puts up 7.5 points, 2.2 rebounds, and 1.5 assists for the season, and his job here is to keep the Thunder’s bench minutes playable while the defense stays intact. If McCain hits early pull-ups and spot-ups, the Nuggets can’t over-help into the paint without paying for it.
Isaiah Hartenstein matters next because this matchup is going to produce a lot of “possession tax” plays: extra rebounds, rim contests, and clean outlets. He’s at 10.7 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, and if he wins the glass and keeps the ball moving, the Thunder’s offense doesn’t have to be perfect to stay ahead.
Cason Wallace is third because he sits right at the intersection of ball security and point-of-attack defense. Wallace posts 8.9 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 2.6 assists, and his value in this game is keeping the Thunder’s possessions clean while taking pressure off the primary creators on the other end.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is the Nuggets’ spacing stress test. He brings 13.9 points with 2.6 rebounds and 1.3 assists, and if he turns kickouts into threes, it forces the Thunder’s help to stay honest and opens the seams the Nuggets need.
Cameron Johnson is next because his role is the simplest and often the loudest in matchups like this: punish help and win the “one swing” threes. Johnson has 11.7 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, and if he’s efficient, the Nuggets don’t need extra possessions to keep pace.
Christian Braun closes it because his two-way minutes are where the injuries show up. Braun is giving the Nuggets 10.0 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 2.9 assists, and if he converts cuts and runs the floor without turnovers, it keeps the Nuggets from stalling when the game gets physical.
Prediction
I’m taking the Thunder. The defense is still the cleanest anchor in the matchup, and getting Gilgeous-Alexander back after the nine-game absence gives them a steadier half-court scoring floor to pair with it. If this turns into a late-game possession grind, the Thunder are better positioned to win the empty-trip battle.
Prediction: Thunder 114, Nuggets 109
