The Warriors host the Nuggets at Chase Center on Sunday, February 22, at 3:30 p.m. ET. The Warriors are 29-27 and sitting eighth in the West. The Nuggets are 36-21 and sitting third in the West.
The Warriors’ last game was a 121-110 loss to the Celtics on Feb. 19. The Nuggets just smoked the Trail Blazers 157-103 on Feb. 20. That matters because both teams are walking in with extreme ends of the confidence spectrum.
This season series already has teeth. The Warriors beat the Nuggets 137-131 in overtime on Oct. 23, then got crushed 129-104 on Nov. 7. Same matchup, totally different feel depending on who controls pace and who owns the glass.
For the Nuggets, it starts with Nikola Jokic, who is averaging 29.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 10.7 assists. Jamal Murray is right behind him as the second engine at 25.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 7.6 assists, but his availability is a real question tonight.
For the Warriors, Stephen Curry is out, so the tone shifts to problem-solving. Curry’s season line sits at 27.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 4.8 assists, but the Warriors will have to replace that gravity with structure, extra passing, and a lot of “next guy” shot-making. Draymond Green is averaging 8.3 points, 5.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and Kristaps Porzingis brings 17.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 2.7 assists if he’s cleared to play.
Injury Report
Nuggets
Aaron Gordon: Out (right hamstring strain)
Peyton Watson: Out (right hamstring strain)
Tamar Bates: Out (left foot surgery)
Jalen Pickett: Out (right knee soreness)
Jamal Murray: Questionable (right hamstring tightness)
Warriors
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Stephen Curry: Out (right patellofemoral pain syndrome)
LJ Cryer: Out (G League, two-way)
Seth Curry: Out (left sciatic nerve irritation)
Malevy Leons: Out (G League, two-way)
Kristaps Porzingis: Probable (left Achilles tendon injury management)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The case for the Warriors starts on defense and connectivity. They are allowing 113.8 points per game (11th), and that’s the only way this game stays sane without Curry’s offense. The broader profile supports it, too: the Warriors rank fifth in defensive rating (112.4), and they’re fourth in assist percentage (69.9). That combination is basically the Warriors’ identity when they’re healthy, even if the personnel has changed.
There’s also a very real “how they score” angle that can keep them afloat. The Warriors are fifth in assists per game (28.9), which tells you they can generate points without leaning on one guy dribbling into a bailout shot every trip. Against a Nuggets team missing Aaron Gordon and potentially limited by Murray, the Warriors’ best path is to make the game about repeated decisions: closeouts, rotations, second efforts, and whether the Nuggets’ wings can hold up possession after possession.
If the Warriors are going to steal this, it’s going to look like a disciplined defensive night with good ball security, plus a spike in bench scoring. They lead the league in bench points per game (44.6), and that matters more than ever when the top-end talent gap widens.
Why The Nuggets Have The Advantage
This is the most straightforward advantage section you can write. The Nuggets have the No. 1 offense in the league by offensive rating (123.0), and they’re fourth in net rating (6.2). Even with injuries, that’s the profile of a team that can win by playing “normal.”
The raw production matches it. The Nuggets are first in points per game at 120.9 and ninth in assists per game at 28.2. When Jokic is the hub, the Nuggets don’t need to force anything, and the Warriors’ defensive discipline gets tested because every possession has a second and third option.
The other thing is simple: shot-making at the top. Jokic is basically a system by himself, and if Murray plays, that two-man game can turn a good defensive possession into a bad one in a single screen. If Murray sits, it still matters because the Nuggets’ offense is built to survive a missing creator better than most teams.
X-Factors
With Stephen Curry out, Brandin Podziemski becomes the closest thing the Warriors have to a steady possession organizer. He’s averaging 12.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.5 assists on 44.8% from the field. If he keeps the ball moving and gets the Warriors into early offense, they can survive the stretches where the Nuggets try to slow the game into a half-court grind.
Moses Moody is the clean “swing the math” piece. He’s at 11.5 points and 3.3 rebounds on 43.7% from the field. If he hits enough spot threes and holds up defensively on the perimeter, the Warriors can keep the Nuggets from loading the paint without consequence.
Christian Braun is the margin-minute stabilizer for the Nuggers: cutting, running lanes, and being decisive when the defense collapses. He’s averaging 9.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.8 assists on 48.0% from the field. If he turns Jokic-created advantages into quick points instead of extra dribbles, the offense stays clean even if Jamal Murray is limited.
Tim Hardaway Jr. is the pure variance lever. He’s averaging 14.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.3 assists on 45.3% shooting. If he hits early threes, the Warriors can’t overhelp as aggressively, and the entire geometry of the offense opens up.
Prediction
I lean Nuggets, even with the injuries. The No. 1 offense (123.0 ORtg) and a top-five net profile are usually too much for a short-handed opponent, and the Warriors are already missing Stephen Curry and Jimmy Butler.
The Warriors have the defensive foundation to keep it respectable, but asking them to out-execute a Jokic-led offense for 48 minutes is a brutal ask without their primary shot-creator.
Prediction: Nuggets 120, Warriors 108
