The Suns host the Warriors on Friday, April 17, at 10:00 PM ET in the West 8-seed play-in game. The Suns finished 45-37 and seventh in the West. The Warriors finished 37-45 and 10th. The Suns went 25-16 at home. The winner gets the No. 8 seed and a first-round series against the Thunder.
The Suns come into this game off a 114-110 loss to the Trail Blazers in the 7-8 play-in game. They led by 11 with less than seven minutes left and still lost. Jalen Green scored 35 points in that game, Devin Booker had 22, and Dillon Brooks added 20. That is the big issue going into Friday. The Suns had their chance, had the game in their hands, and did not close it, as Booker himself put it.
The Warriors arrive after beating the Clippers 126-121 in their first play-in game. Stephen Curry scored 35 and hit the late dagger. Kristaps Porzingis had 20. Gui Santos had 20 points, six rebounds, and five assists. Al Horford finished with 14, but the key part was his four threes in the final 5 minutes. So the Warriors come in with momentum, while the Suns are trying to recover from a bad finish.
The regular-season matchup leaned toward the Warriors, who won three of the four meetings. The most recent one was a 101-97 Warriors win on February 5, and Curry did not even play in that game. That says this is not just about one hot night from Curry. The Warriors have already shown they can make this matchup hard for the Suns.
The spotlight starts with Booker and Curry. Booker finished the regular season with 26.1 points, 6.0 assists, and 3.9 rebounds, and Curry is coming off his best game since returning from a knee injury, scoring 35 against the Clippers after missing more than two months. This is one of those games where the best guard usually decides a lot.
Injury Report
Suns
Grayson Allen: Questionable (left hamstring strain)
Mark Williams: Questionable (left foot soreness)
Warriors
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Moses Moody: Out (left patellar tendon surgery)
Quinten Post: Out (right foot injury management)
Kristaps Porzingis: Questionable (right ankle soreness)
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
The Suns still have a real case because their main scorers showed up in the loss to the Trail Blazers. Jalen Green scored 35 points, Devin Booker had 22, and Dillon Brooks added 20. The problem was not shot creation. The problem was closing the game after leading by 11 in the fourth. In a spot like this, that can cut both ways. It can shake a team, or it can sharpen it. The Suns at least know their top scorers are coming in with rhythm.
The other edge is rest. The Suns lost on Tuesday and have had more time to reset. The Warriors had to fight through a full elimination game on Wednesday, and Stephen Curry played nearly 36 minutes in his first real heavy workload since coming back from his knee injury. For an older team in a second play-in game in two nights, that is not nothing.
There is also a clear way for the Suns to attack this game. The Suns need to go inside and set the tone early. That fits what the film says, too. The Warriors got hot from three against the Clippers, but they were also down 13 in the fourth before everything flipped. If the Suns keep this game more physical, drive the ball, and make the Warriors defend at the rim, they have a better shot of keeping control.
The Suns also do not need to wonder what went wrong. It was right there in the Blazers game. They let a late lead slip, the Trail Blazers closed on a 17-5 run, and one or two bad possessions changed everything. That kind of loss is brutal, but it also gives the coaching staff a very clean message going into the next game: score the same way, defend better late, and do not let the game turn loose in the final minutes.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors have the biggest edge a team can have in a play-in spot. They just came through one. They were down big late against the Clippers, stayed alive, and still won 126-121. That kind of game gives a team real belief, especially when Stephen Curry closes it with 35 points and seven made threes. The Warriors already know they can handle this pressure because they just did it.
The supporting cast also showed up in a way that changes this matchup. Al Horford scored 14 points, but all of them came in the final stretch on four huge threes. Gui Santos gave them 20 points, six rebounds, and five assists. Kristaps Porzingis added 20 more. So this was not just Curry carrying them alone. The Warriors got real help from multiple spots, and that is a big reason they feel more dangerous now than their regular-season record suggests.
The matchup history helps. The Warriors won the season series 3-1, and even the most recent win came without Curry. So the Suns are not just dealing with one hot game from Wednesday night. They are dealing with a team that has already been comfortable in this matchup. In one game, that matters.
The other thing the Warriors have right now is late-game trust. The Suns had a winnable game and lost it. The Warriors had a losable game and won it. That does not decide Friday by itself, but in a one-game setting, those details matter. One team is coming in off a collapse. The other is coming in off a comeback. That is a real difference.
X-Factors
Jalen Green is a huge one for the Suns because he already showed he can be the most explosive scorer on the floor in this matchup. He had 35 against the Trail Blazers and gave the Suns real juice when the offense needed it. The next step is making the right reads late. If Green attacks the paint, gets to his spots, and stays under control in the last few minutes, he can swing the game. If he starts settling or forcing shots, the Suns get a lot easier to guard.
Dillon Brooks is another big one for the Suns because this feels like the kind of game where his tone matters. He scored 20 against the Trail Blazers, and this game is Brooks basketball. The Suns need his defense, his physicality, and enough shot-making to stop the Warriors from getting comfortable on the perimeter. If Brooks brings force early, the whole game can tilt.
Gui Santos is a real X-factor for the Warriors because he changed the Clippers game without needing the offense to run through him. He had 20 points, six rebounds, and five assists, and he gave the Warriors energy, passing, and another player who could attack when the defense tilted toward Curry. If Santos gives them that again, the Suns have one more problem to solve.
Al Horford is the other one because he already flipped one play-in game by himself for a few minutes. His last performance is not normal, but it does show the kind of pressure he can put on the defense when teams overload on Curry. If the Suns help too much, Horford can punish them. If they stay home, Curry gets cleaner space. That is why Horford is such an important piece in this game.
Prediction
This feels less like a season-long argument and more like a question of who looks more ready right now. The Suns have the better rest setup and enough scoring to win it, especially if Green and Booker get going early again. But the Warriors just handled one elimination game, Curry looked sharp, and the role players gave them more than enough support. Add the 3-1 season-series edge, and the Warriors still feel like the safer pick in this spot.
Prediction: Suns 110, Warriors 114
