The Golden State Warriors host the Miami Heat at Chase Center on Monday, January 19, at 7:00 PM PT.
The Warriors are 24-19 and sitting 8th in the West, while the Heat are 22-20 and sitting 8th in the East.
Last time out, the Warriors smoked the Hornets 136-116 with another one of those “everybody scores” nights. The Heat just edged the Thunder 122-120 behind a monster Bam Adebayo game and a late Andrew Wiggins dagger.
These teams already played once this season, and the Heat took it 110-96 back on November 19, so the Warriors have the “get it back” angle here.
Stephen Curry is still doing Stephen Curry things at 27.6 points, 3.8 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game, and Jimmy Butler is giving the Warriors a steady second hammer at 20.1 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 4.9 assists.
For the Heat, Adebayo is at 17.4 points and 9.6 rebounds, and Wiggins is putting up 15.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists a night.
This one’s spicy because it’s a style clash, the Warriors want to turn it into a track meet from deep, and the Heat want to drag it into execution and late-game nerve.
Injury Report
Warriors
Seth Curry: Out (left sciatic nerve irritation)
De’Anthony Melton: Out (left knee injury management)
Gui Santos: Out (left ankle sprain)
Draymond Green: Probable (right ankle sprain)
Heat
Tyler Herro: Out (right rib contusion)
Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
Jaime Jaquez Jr.: Probable (left knee sprain)
Davion Mitchell: Probable (left shoulder contusion)
Nikola Jovic: Available (head illness)
Pelle Larsson: Available (left 3rd mallet finger)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors have the simplest edge in the world tonight: they’re nasty at home. They’re 16-6 in their building, and that matters a lot against a Heat team that’s been 7-13 on the road.
When the Warriors get that crowd juice, their runs come faster, and they start playing like they’ve got a green light on every possession.
The math also leans Warriors. They’re taking 44.4 threes a game and hitting 36.5% from deep, and they’ve made more threes than anyone in the league this season. If the Heat go through one of those “two-minute cold spells,” the Warriors can bury you before you even realize the quarter flipped.
And defensively, the Warriors have been top-8 this year. They’re allowing 113.2 points per game, which is good enough when your offense can spike into the 130s on a hot shooting night.
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
The Heat can absolutely win this game by out-executing the Warriors, because the Heat offense has been really productive. They’re scoring 119.5 points per game, shooting 46.7% from the field, and hitting 36.9% from three. That’s not “grindhouse,” that’s a team that can light you up if you get sloppy with rotations.
They also share the ball, and they attack the middle. The Heat average 28.5 assists per game, and when they’re humming, they turn a decent look into a great one fast. If Curry and Butler see constant help at the nail, the Heat can punish the Warriors by forcing long closeouts and getting downhill.
Plus, the Heat already proved they can dictate this matchup once. That 110-96 win earlier in the season wasn’t an accident; it was the Heat controlling pace and making the Warriors play longer possessions than they wanted.
X-Factors
Brandin Podziemski is the Warriors’ swing guy because he changes the texture of their offense. He’s at 12.0 points and 4.4 rebounds per game, and he’s been their steady “third scorer” type when the stars draw all the attention. If he hits early threes and keeps cutting behind ball-watching defenders, the Heat’s defense starts bending.
Moses Moody is the other one, especially with the Warriors leaning into spacing and volume. He’s at 10.6 points, 3.0 rebounds, and he’s shooting 39.2% from three this season. The Heat will live with role guys taking shots sometimes, but if Moody turns those “fine, take it” looks into actual damage, the Warriors’ offense looks unfair.
Buddy Hield is the wild card because he can swing a quarter in three minutes. He’s only at 7.4 points per game, but if he catches a mini heater, the Heat have to start guarding way higher and that opens the lane for Curry and Butler to work.
For the Heat, Jaime Jaquez Jr. is huge if he’s truly ready to go, because he’s basically their do-everything glue wing. He’s at 15.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.6 assists per game, and he’s the guy who can keep the offense organized when things get messy. If he’s limited, the Heat lose a lot of their “calm.”
Davion Mitchell matters too because he’s the Heat’s pressure valve. He’s averaging 9.1 points and 7.3 assists, and if he can keep the Heat’s ball security solid while making Curry work on the other end, that’s the kind of hidden edge that shows up late.
And Nikola Jovic is a sneaky matchup piece. He’s around 8.7 points and 3.8 rebounds, and his spacing at forward can pull a Warriors big away from the rim just enough to make Adebayo’s life easier.
Prediction
I’m riding with the Warriors. The home split is loud, the three-point volume is terrifying, and this feels like a “Curry goes nuclear for one quarter” type of spot. The Heat can absolutely keep it close if they keep scoring at their usual level, but I think the Warriors win the shot math and get revenge for that earlier loss.
Prediction: Warriors 123, Heat 116
