The New York Knicks host the Dallas Mavericks at Madison Square Garden on Monday, January 19, at 5:00 PM ET.
The Knicks come in at 25-17 as the No. 3 seed in the East, while the Mavericks sit at 16-26 as the No. 12 seed in the West.
Last time out, the Knicks fell 106-99 to the Suns, while the Mavericks handled the Jazz 138-120. The season series has already been spicy too; the Knicks took the first meeting 113-111 back on November 19.
On the star side, Jalen Brunson is at 27.0 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 7.4 assists this season, while Karl-Anthony Towns is posting 25.5 points, 11.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists.
For the Mavericks, rookie Cooper Flagg has been their engine at 18.8 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 4.2 assists, and Anthony Davis has put up 20.4 points and 11.1 rebounds (even if he won’t suit up tonight).
Injury Report
Knicks
Jalen Brunson: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Josh Hart: Questionable (right ankle soreness)
Mavericks
Anthony Davis: Out (left finger sprain)
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Daniel Gafford: Out (right ankle sprain)
P.J. Washington: Out (personal reasons)
D’Angelo Russell: Out (illness)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Cooper Flagg: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
This is where the Knicks can make it feel unfair fast. They score 118.9 points per game and they absolutely bomb threes at 37.8%, which is the kind of math that buries short-handed teams.
They also take care of the ball. The Knicks sit at 13.6 turnovers per game, and that matters against a Mavericks group that’s already juggling lineups and creators. Extra possessions plus elite spacing usually turns into a comfortable night at the Garden.
And even though neither defense is exactly terrifying by the numbers, the Knicks at least live in the same neighborhood defensively while owning the bigger offensive edge. If they get hot early, this can turn into a game where the Mavericks are chasing threes all night.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The obvious angle is pace control and toughness. Even at 16-26, the Mavericks still shoot 47.3% from the field and they move it well enough (25.5 assists) to create clean looks when they’re organized.
They’ve also been better than you’d expect at generating disruption around the rim, sitting at 5.7 blocks per game. If that shot-blocking travels and the Knicks don’t get free layup lines, the Mavericks can keep this closer than people think.
And if Flagg plays, he’s the type of “problem” that keeps a game alive by himself. He can score, he can pass, and he can turn one good quarter into a real fourth-quarter situation.
X-Factors
Mikal Bridges is the Knicks guy who swings the ceiling. He’s at 18.1 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, and when he’s decisive, the Knicks’ offense stops feeling like “your turn, my turn.” If he punishes closeouts, the Mavericks’ help defense gets stretched to the breaking point.
Josh Hart matters because he drags the game into the mud in a good way. He’s putting up 9.8 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 5.4 assists, and his extra possessions are back-breakers for a thin opponent. If he’s limited or sits, the Knicks lose some of that chaos and second-chance juice.
Miles McBride is the quiet one, but his minutes can decide the “non-Brunson” stretches. He’s at 10.2 points per game, and if he hits early jumpers, the Knicks can stay aggressive without overextending their main creators.
For the Mavericks, Max Christie is sneaky huge right now. He’s at 12.5 points per game on 48.0% shooting and 44.3% from three, and that efficiency is exactly what they need if the Knicks load up on Flagg. If Christie is making shots, the Knicks can’t just tilt the floor toward the ball.
Dwight Powell is another name to watch because the Mavericks’ frontcourt is basically held together with tape tonight. He’s at 3.1 points and 3.4 rebounds in 13.8 minutes, and his job is simple: survive, set real screens, and don’t bleed points in the paint. If he holds the line, the Mavericks can keep their guards in rhythm.
Prediction
If Brunson goes, I’m taking the Knicks to control this from the jump, too much spacing, too many creators, and the Mavericks’ injury list is just brutal. Even if Brunson sits, I still like the Knicks’ shot profile and depth at home.
Prediction: Knicks 121, Mavericks 110
