The Portland Trail Blazers host the Houston Rockets at Moda Center on Friday at 10:00 PM ET.
The Trail Blazers are 18-20 (9th in the West), and the Rockets are 22-12 (6th in the West).
These two literally just played, and the Trail Blazers stole it 103-102 on Wednesday behind Deni Avdija’s monster 41-piece, with Kevin Durant dropping 37 in the loss.
The season series is tied 1-1; the Rockets blew the Trail Blazers out 140-116 back on November 14, then the Trail Blazers answered with that one-point win this week.
Deni Avdija is averaging 26.3 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 7.0 assists, and Shaedon Sharpe is at 21.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.5 assists.
For the Rockets, Kevin Durant is putting up 26.1 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 4.4 assists, while Amen Thompson is at 18.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 5.3 assists.
This one finds the Trail Blazers playing with a patchwork rotation, as they still keep finding ways to win. If they take another one off a top-six team, people are going to have to stop treating them like a “cute story.”
Injury Report
Trail Blazers
Damian Lillard: Out (left Achilles tendon injury management)
Jerami Grant: Out (left Achilles tendinitis)
Kris Murray: Out (low back soreness)
Scoot Henderson: Out (left hamstring tear)
Matisse Thybulle: Out (right knee tendinopathy)
Blake Wesley: Out (right foot fracture)
Jrue Holiday: Doubtful (right calf strain)
Rockets
Isaiah Crawford: Out (illness)
Alperen Sengun: Out (right ankle sprain)
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Why The Trail Blazers Have The Advantage
They’re at home, and right now they’re playing like a team that expects to win close games. They’ve won six of their last seven, and the confidence is obvious when it gets tight late.
The Trail Blazers can score enough to hang around; they’re at 116.5 points per game. The problem is the defense; they give up 119.1 points per game, so they need to keep forcing ugly stretches and make this game uncomfortable again.
If the Trail Blazers win this, it’s because they control their own mistakes and survive the math. They’re at 16.9 turnovers per game and only 44.8% from the field, so they can’t hand the Rockets extra possessions and then expect to race them.
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The numbers say the Rockets should be the “grown-ups” in this matchup. They’re scoring 118.9 points per game and only allowing 110.7, which is a massive gap compared to what the Trail Blazers have lived with defensively all year.
They also do the efficiency stuff better. 48.5% from the field, 38.2% from three, and 49.1 rebounds per game, that’s the recipe for traveling well.
The biggest swing tonight is still the Rockets’ size and second chances. Even in the loss on Wednesday, they crushed the glass, and if they turn that into a normal shooting night, it’s hard to see the Trail Blazers surviving another 48 minutes of pressure without their full rotation.
X-Factors
Toumani Camara is the Trail Blazers’ “glue” guy who has to play like a starter-star. He’s at 12.8 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.8 assists, and his job is simple tonight: defend up a position, hit enough threes to punish help, and make Durant work for everything. If Camara’s shot is falling, the Trail Blazers can keep the floor spaced for Avdija’s drives.
Donovan Clingan is the blunt instrument. He’s at 11.2 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks, and the Trail Blazers need him to end possessions. If he gives up second-chance points, the game starts leaning Rockets fast, because that’s where the Rockets love to break you.
Caleb Love is the “random heater” threat that changes the script. He’s putting up 10.1 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists, and if he hits a couple early threes, the Rockets can’t overload on Avdija as aggressively. The Trail Blazers don’t need him to be perfect; they just need his minutes to be loud.
For the Rockets, Jabari Smith Jr. is the swing forward. He’s at 15.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 2.0 assists, and his spacing matters a ton if the Trail Blazers pack the paint to slow Durant. If Jabari hits, the Rockets’ offense looks simple and unstoppable.
Tari Eason is the chaos and effort guy. He’s at 12.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.6 assists, and he can absolutely steal possessions with offensive boards and deflections. If he turns this into a scrap again, the Rockets’ depth starts to matter more than the Trail Blazers’ injuries.
Reed Sheppard is the back-breaker when he’s hot. He’s averaging 13.1 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 3.3 assists, and he’s hitting 40.5% from three. If he’s drilling catch-and-shoots off Durant’s attention, the Trail Blazers’ defensive margin for error basically disappears.
Prediction
I’m rolling with the Rockets, even on the road. The Trail Blazers just played an absolute emotional game and pulled it out, but the injury list is brutal, and the Rockets have too many ways to win if they clean up the late execution.
Prediction: Rockets 111, Trail Blazers 106
