The Knicks host the Pacers at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday, March 17, at 7:30 p.m. ET.
The Knicks enter at 44-25, third in the East, and 24-9 at home, while the Pacers are 15-53, 15th in the East, and just 5-29 on the road.
The Knicks are coming off a 110-107 win over the Warriors, while the Pacers lost 134-123 to the Bucks and have now dropped 13 straight. The season series is 2-1 for the Knicks after Friday’s 101-92 win, so this is already the fourth meeting, and the Knicks have a chance to put the matchup away.
Jalen Brunson is still the Knicks’ offensive engine, averaging 26.3 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 6.6 assists while shooting 46.4% from the field and 37.6% from three. Karl-Anthony Towns gives the Knicks their frontcourt scoring and rebounding base with 20.0 points, 11.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists on 49.4% from the field and 36.8% from three.
For the Pacers, Pascal Siakam has been their best scorer at 24.0 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.9 assists on 48.4% shooting and 36.2% from three, though he enters this one doubtful. Andrew Nembhard has quietly carried a huge creation load, averaging 17.0 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 7.3 assists on 44.0% shooting and 36.3% from three.
That is the tension here. The Knicks clearly have the better team profile, but the Pacers have enough ball-handling and enough weird matchup history in this series to make this more annoying than it should be.
Injury Report
Knicks
Trey Jemison III: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Miles McBride: Out (pelvic core muscle injury)
Jalen Brunson: Questionable (right ankle injury management; cervical strain right side)
Pacers
Tyrese Haliburton: Out (right Achilles tendon tear)
Johnny Furphy: Out (right ACL tear)
Pascal Siakam: Doubtful (right knee sprain)
Quenton Jackson: Questionable (right calf strain)
T.J. McConnell: Questionable (right hamstring soreness)
Andrew Nembhard: Questionable (right calf contusion)
Aaron Nesmith: Questionable (right ankle injury management)
Taelon Peter: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Micah Potter: Questionable (right triceps strain)
Ben Sheppard: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Jalen Slawson: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Ethan Thompson: Questionable (G League – Two-Way)
Obi Toppin: Questionable (right foot injury management)
Ivica Zubac: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The first and biggest edge is the overall team profile. The Knicks own a 119.3 offensive rating, a 112.9 defensive rating, and a +6.4 net rating. The Pacers are way behind that at 109.7 offensively, 118.3 defensively, and -8.6 in net rating. That is not a small gap. That is the difference between a team fighting for home-court positioning and a team already eliminated.
The second edge is size and possession control. The Knicks are averaging 46.2 rebounds and 27.4 assists per game, while the Pacers are at 42.2 rebounds and 26.5 assists. That matters even more in this matchup because the Knicks just bullied the Pacers on the glass in the last meeting behind Mitchell Robinson’s 22 rebounds, and Towns is back in the mix now. If the Knicks win the rebounding battle again, the Pacers simply do not have enough defensive quality to survive the extra possessions.
There is also a pace angle that favors the Knicks. The Pacers play faster at a 100.91 pace, while the Knicks are down at 97.51. Normally, that could help the underdog create chaos, but in this case, it cuts both ways because the Pacers are also turning it over 14.5 times per game and defending terribly in the half-court. If the Knicks keep this under control and force the Pacers to score against a set defense, the math leans hard toward the home side.
And the simplest point still matters: the Knicks are at home, they have won three straight, and they already beat the Pacers 101-92 four days ago, even with Towns and Josh Hart out. The Pacers have now lost 13 in a row and are limping into this game with Siakam doubtful, and with half the rotation carrying questionable tags. That is not the kind of setup that usually produces an upset at the Garden.
Why The Pacers Have The Advantage
The Pacers’ best case starts with pace and guard creation. Even with the ugly record, they still play fast, they still average 26.5 assists per game, and Nembhard has become a real primary creator with 17.0 points and 7.3 assists per game. If he is healthy enough to play and the Pacers can get the game moving side to side before the Knicks set their defense, they at least have a way to make the favorite uncomfortable.
There is also a real head-to-head warning for the Knicks. This series has not been a total walk. The Pacers already stole one game in overtime, and even Friday’s loss was tied in the third quarter before the Knicks finally created separation. So even though the records scream mismatch, the matchup itself has been a little more stubborn than that.
The Pacers can also hurt the Knicks if this turns into a hot-shooting wing game. Aaron Nesmith is at 13.5 points per game and just dropped 32 against the Bucks, while Nembhard can get to his pull-up game, and Siakam, if he surprisingly goes, is still their best half-court scorer by a mile. The Knicks are the better defense, but they have also spent too much time lately digging out of holes, and that is exactly how a bad team steals belief early.
And there is a mental side here. The Knicks barely escaped the Warriors after falling behind by 21, and even the win over the Pacers last week was harder than it should have been. That does not erase the statistical gap, but it does show a pattern. The Pacers are bad enough that the Knicks can get lazy, and lazy is the one thing that gives Indiana a real window.
X-Factors
OG Anunoby is the cleanest Knicks swing piece in this matchup. He is averaging 16.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 48.3% from the field and 37.4% from three. He also just dropped 25 on the Pacers in the last meeting. If Anunoby wins the wing battle again and keeps punishing weak closeouts, the Pacers do not really have the two-way personnel to answer him.
Mikal Bridges is key because the Knicks need one more stable decision-maker next to Brunson and Towns. Bridges is posting 14.8 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, and he is shooting 48.8% from the field and 37.3% from three. The Knicks do not need him to be a star in this matchup. They need him to attack scrambling defenders, keep the ball moving, and make the Pacers pay when they overload toward Brunson.
Josh Hart is the other Knicks x-factor because this game can tilt on effort stats. Hart is putting up 11.7 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 5.1 assists while shooting 49.5% from the field and 38.0% from three. Against a Pacers team that already struggles on the glass and can get loose with transition matchups, Hart’s rebounding and connective play can break the game open without him needing 20 points.
Aaron Nesmith is the Pacers’ most dangerous swing scorer right now. He is coming in with 13.5 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.1 assists, and he just went for 32 in the loss to the Bucks. If his jumper is hot early, he gives the Pacers a real way to stretch the floor and make the Knicks defend harder than they want against a bottom-feeder.
Ivica Zubac could make another appearance, and this Pacers team needs somebody to keep the game from becoming a Knicks rebounding clinic again. Zubac is averaging 14.1 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 60.8% from the field. If he can own the paint minutes and at least neutralize Towns and Robinson on the glass, the Pacers have a way to stay alive deep into the second half.
Obi Toppin is the volatility piece. He is giving 8.1 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 1.5 assists, and the efficiency has not been great, but his speed and activity can still change stretches of games. Against the Knicks, that matters because the Pacers need somebody who can run, cut, and finish before the defense gets organized. If Toppin gives them real bench juice, they can keep this from turning into a methodical Knicks control game.
Prediction
This should be a Knicks win. The Pacers can make it weird for a while because Nembhard is good enough to run offense, Nesmith can get hot, and the Knicks have spent too many recent games sleepwalking through the first half. But the bigger picture is overwhelming. The Knicks have the better offense, the better defense, the better net rating, the better record, the better home mark, and they already beat this same team on Friday. If Brunson plays, it should not be that close. Even if he sits, the Knicks still have enough to handle a Pacers team that has been bleeding games for two weeks.
Prediction: Knicks 118, Pacers 106
