The New York Knicks host the Miami Heat at Madison Square Garden on Sunday night, and this one feels personal because it’s already been a mini-series.
The Knicks come in at 19-8, sitting second in the Eastern Conference. The Heat are 15-13, sitting seventh in the East.
These teams have already played three times this season, and it’s been chaos. The Heat took Game 1 (115-107) on Oct. 26, the Knicks answered with a 140-132 win on Nov. 14, then the Heat stole another tight one (115-113) on Nov. 17. Sunday is the fourth meeting, and the Heat currently lead the season series 2-1.
The star power is obvious. Jalen Brunson has been playing like an All-NBA guard, putting up 28.4 points and 6.5 assists per game while shooting 47.7% from the field. Karl-Anthony Towns has given the Knicks a steady interior engine with 22.4 points and 11.8 rebounds per game.
For the Heat, Norman Powell has been the leading scorer at 24.1 points per game on 48.7% from the field, while Bam Adebayo sits at 18.5 points and 9.4 rebounds per game.
Injury Report
Knicks
Miles McBride: Out (left ankle sprain)
Landry Shamet: Out (right shoulder sprain)
Heat
Tyler Herro: Out (right big toe contusion)
Nikola Jovic: Out (right elbow contusion/laceration)
Pelle Larsson: Out (left ankle sprain)
Davion Mitchell: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
Andrew Wiggins: Questionable (lower back pain)
Kasparas Jakucionis: Available (left ankle soreness)
Norman Powell: Available (right thumb sprain)
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The Knicks’ biggest edge is how stable they’ve been at home, and it’s not just vibes. They’re 13-2 at Madison Square Garden, which matters in a matchup where the margin has been thin all season.
When a team wins like that at home, it usually means two things: they defend with real consistency, and their role players actually show up.
That’s the thing with the Knicks this year. Their profile screams “serious team.” They’re scoring 120.2 points per game while allowing only 112.4, and that opponent number is the kind of defensive baseline that makes life miserable for teams that rely on rhythm.
The Heat can absolutely scrap, but if they get stuck in the half-court and the Knicks keep the game organized, it turns into a grind where every possession feels expensive.
The other advantage is that the Knicks don’t need a perfect shooting night to win. They’ve been a balanced team that can get stops, rebound enough, and win the possession battle without playing “make 20 threes or die.”
They’re also entering this one with real momentum over the last couple of weeks. Although a loss against the 76ers snapped their 7-game win streak, their last five include wins over the Spurs in an NBA Cup title-clinching game, then a Magic win, plus a one-point thriller in Pacers territory, and that pattern matters because it shows they can survive late-game pressure even when it gets weird.
If the Knicks play to their identity, solid defense, steady execution, and making the Heat score over a set defense, they’re in the driver’s seat. And with how strong they’ve been in this building, the Heat are going to need a near-perfect shot-making night to flip it.
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
The Heat’s best argument is that they already know how to make this matchup ugly, and they’ve already proven they can win it. Leading the season series 2-1 isn’t a fluke when two of those wins were the kind of tight, late-possession games where preparation and toughness matter more than highlight talent.
The other edge is style. The Heat are the type of team that doesn’t care if you’re “better” on paper. They care about getting the game into the mud, forcing decision-making under pressure, and turning every loose ball into a statement.
Even when the results haven’t been pretty lately, they’ve still been a team that generates activity. They average 8.8 steals per game as a team, and that’s the kind of number that can swing a game fast if the Knicks get casual with the ball.
There’s also a sneaky scheduling angle here. The Heat just played in Boston on Friday, took the loss, and now they get another big stage game. Sometimes that’s exhausting, but sometimes it’s exactly the kind of reset a tough team wants, because the urgency is automatic. If they come in with that “we’re not losing two in a row” energy, this turns into a fist fight by the second quarter.
And if the Heat get their questionable guys available, that’s where the matchup tightens. More ball-handling, more wing defense, more bodies to throw at the Knicks’ creators, and suddenly it looks like the kind of 108-106 game they’ve won before.
The Heat’s path is clear. They need to disrupt early, keep the Knicks out of rhythm, and turn it into a fourth-quarter game where execution and toughness decide it. They’ve already shown they can do that in this series.
Knicks vs. Heat Prediction
I’m taking the Knicks at home. The Heat have been comfortable in this matchup and they won’t be scared, but the Knicks’ home form plus their defensive stability feels like the difference in a game that’s probably tight until the last five minutes.
Prediction: Knicks 121, Heat 108
