Bill Simmons has raised a question many front offices are starting to consider. Is Giannis Antetokounmpo still a top-five player in the NBA?
On his podcast with Zach Lowe, Simmons pushed back on the idea.
Zach Lowe: “They will get a mother load for him, because there will be a mother load. I’ll stick with it. Because there will be a team.”
Bill Simmons: “I don’t think they will.”
Zach Lowe: “Well, it depends what your definition is. I think the Heat would trade everything we thought they would trade at the trade deadline.”
Bill Simmons: “Why is this a good idea? I’m just playing devil’s advocate. If we’re in the front office and we’re talking about this, we have a chance to get Giannis.”
Zach Lowe: “He’s a top-five NBA player.”
Bill Simmons: “Is he? He doesn’t play.”
Zach Lowe: “You’re talking about him like he’s Embiid. This is not that.”
Bill Simmons: “He’s closer to Embiid than Jokic. He gets hurt all the time. He’s hurt all the time. I would be really scared about this. So you’re telling me if I’m Miami, I have to trade all of my assets, and I have to sign you to a $280 million extension for four years, and I don’t know if you can play.”
“If I’m Miami trading everything I have and then having to sign up for four more years and not being 100 percent sure if I’m getting the Giannis from 2022, much less 2021, I’d be really nervous about it. I don’t think I would do it. I would do it if I was Golden State. And I’m like, look, we were riding Steph into the ground, and this is our last chance. But I don’t know if I would do it if I was Miami.”
Talent is not the issue. Giannis at his best still dominates both ends. The concern is availability. This season, he has played only 36 out of 70 games. That is not a one-year problem; it is a pattern.
Over the past four seasons, the games played tell the story. In 2021-22, he played 67 games. In 2022-23, 63 games. In 2023-24, 73 games. Last season, 67 games. In the 2023 playoffs, he missed two out of the Bucks’ five games. And he missed the 2024 playoffs entirely.
Now this season, injuries have hit harder and more frequently.
That trend matters more at age 31.
Giannis built his game on force. He attacks the rim, absorbs contact, and plays through bodies every possession. That style takes a toll. Knee issues, calf strains, and groin injuries have all shown up this season alone. These are not random injuries. They are wear and tear.
Simmons compared him closer to Joel Embiid than Nikola Jokic in terms of availability risk. That is a strong statement, but it reflects how teams think. Jokic plays while Embiid misses time. Giannis is starting to fall into the second category.
That changes trade value.
Earlier in the season, teams were ready to offer massive packages. The Miami Heat, Golden State Warriors, and Minnesota Timberwolves all showed interest. Now, the risk is higher.
Simmons laid it out clearly. If you are Miami, you are not only trading all your assets. You are also committing to a four-year, $274 million extension. That is a long-term bet on health, not just talent. That is where hesitation comes in.
The Milwaukee Bucks are also at a breaking point. They sit 11th in the East with a 29-41 record. They are out of the playoff race. After winning the title in 2021, they have followed with a second-round exit in 2022 and three straight first-round exits from 2023 to 2025.
Now, this season could end without even reaching the playoffs.
At the same time, the front office has made its position clear. Either Giannis signs a new extension this summer, or he gets traded. They are not letting him walk for nothing. That creates pressure on both sides.
Giannis wants to play through injury. The team wants to shut him down. That difference shows how fragile the situation has become. Simmons’ take might sound harsh, but it reflects real front office thinking. A top-five player is not only about peak level. It is about reliability.
If you cannot stay on the floor, teams will hesitate.
Giannis still has the talent to dominate any series. That has not changed. But the body is starting to push back. At 31, with a physical style, every missed game carries more weight.
