The Timberwolves host the 76ers at Target Center on Sunday, February 22, at 7:00 PM ET.
The Timberwolves are 35-22 and sixth in the West, while the 76ers are 30-26 and sixth in the East. The Wolves are also 20-10 at home, and the 76ers are 15-11 on the road.
The Timberwolves’ last game was a 122-111 win over the Mavericks on Friday, while the 76ers’ last game was a 126-111 loss to the Pelicans last night.
This is the first meeting of the season, and they’ll see each other again on April 3.
Anthony Edwards is averaging 29.5 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.7 assists, and Julius Randle is at 22.2 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 5.4 assists.
Tyrese Maxey is averaging 28.9 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 6.7 assists, and Andre Drummond is at 7.0 points and 8.7 rebounds without Joel Embiid in the frontcourt.
The pressure point is simple: the Timberwolves are rolling at home, and the 76ers are trying to hold their line in the East while playing short-handed again.
Injury Report
Timberwolves
Rudy Gobert: Out (league suspension)
Rocco Zikarsky: Out (G League – Two-Way)
76ers
Joel Embiid: Out (right knee injury management; right shin soreness)
Paul George: Out (league suspension)
Why The Timberwolves Have The Advantage
The Timberwolves’ baseline is strong on both ends. They’re eighth in offensive rating (116.9) and seventh in defensive rating (112.2), with an eighth-ranked net rating (+4.7). That’s the profile of a team that can win without needing a perfect shooting night.
They also score like a top-tier offense in plain terms. They’re tied for third in points per game at 119.7, and they’re doing it with clean shot quality: fourth in effective field goal percentage (56.3%).
This matchup matters because the 76ers have struggled to generate efficient offense even before you layer in who’s missing. They’re 25th in effective field goal percentage (52.9%), and now they’re without Joel Embiid and Paul George. Against a Timberwolves defense that’s seventh in opponent effective field goal percentage (53.1%), that puts a ton of creation weight on Tyrese Maxey in the half-court.
The other matchup lever is pace and shot volume. The Timberwolves play fast enough to stress your transition organization (ninth in pace at 101.7), but they don’t need to turn it into chaos to score. If they can get to their early offense before the 76ers set their help, it becomes a steady diet of paint touches and kickouts instead of a grind.
Rudy Gobert being out changes the interior, but it doesn’t erase the Timberwolves’ scoring edges. They’re sixth in free-throw rate (28.7%), and that’s a clean way to score when your center rotation changes. If the Timberwolves get the 76ers into foul pressure early, it also limits the 76ers’ ability to pressure the ball and speed the game up.
Why The 76ers Have The Advantage
The 76ers’ best path is the possession game. They’re eighth in turnover rate (13.7%), and they’re seventh in forced turnover rate (15.4%). If they can keep their own mistakes down and turn a few Timberwolves possessions into live-ball runouts, they can steal points without needing elite shooting.
They also have a real offensive rebounding profile. They’re ninth in offensive rebound rate (31.4%), and that’s how undermanned teams survive. Extra possessions are how you get back some of the scoring you lose when stars sit.
The matchup logic is also tied to Gobert’s suspension. If the Timberwolves don’t have their usual rim deterrent and cleanup rebounding, the 76ers can tilt this game toward rim attacks and second chances. It’s not about pretty offense. It’s about creating enough close-range looks and enough foul-line trips to keep the scoreboard moving.
The 76ers do have two team-level tools that travel. They’re fourth in free-throw percentage (81.6%), and they’re tied for third in blocks per game (5.8). That combination can matter if the game tightens late: you cash your free points, and you erase a couple finishes at the rim.
The issue, and it’s a big one in this matchup, is what happens after the first stop. The 76ers are 29th in opponent offensive rebound rate (33.2%), so when they defend well, they haven’t consistently finished the possession. If they give the Timberwolves extra shots, it’s hard to keep up with a team scoring nearly 120 a night.
X-Factors
Naz Reid is the obvious swing because Gobert is out, and the Timberwolves still need stable minutes at center. Reid is averaging 14.3 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 2.5 assists. If he can score efficiently on rolls and short pops, it keeps the Timberwolves’ spacing intact and prevents the 76ers from loading up on Edwards and Randle. If Reid struggles to finish possessions on the glass, the 76ers’ offensive rebounding becomes a real problem.
Jaden McDaniels is where the defensive game plan shows up on the floor. He’s at 15.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 2.9 assists, and his value here is how much he can absorb the hardest wing minutes without fouling. If McDaniels can stay attached and keep Maxey working for every touch, the 76ers’ shot creation gets thin fast.
Kelly Oubre Jr. is the 76ers’ release valve when the half-court possessions bog down. He’s averaging 14.0 points and 4.7 rebounds while coming off a 25-point game, and his job in this matchup is to turn second-side advantages into points: cuts, leaks, transition finishes, and attacking closeouts. If Oubre is quiet, the 76ers can get stuck in Maxey-or-nothing possessions.
VJ Edgecombe is the 76ers’ swing creator when the floor shrinks. He’s averaging 15.0 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 4.0 assists, and his value in this matchup is simple: he can get downhill and generate shots without a play being perfect. If Edgecombe turns those paint touches into kickout threes and free throws, the 76ers can keep pace even if the half-court offense gets ugly.
Prediction
I’m taking the Timberwolves. The 76ers can compete with ball security and free throws, but the shot-making gap is too steep over 48 minutes without Embiid and George. The Timberwolves are tied for third in points per game (119.7), fourth in effective field goal percentage (56.3%), and they’ve backed it up lately with a three-game win streak heading into this one.
Prediction: Timberwolves 121, 76ers 112
