The Phoenix Suns host the Oklahoma City Thunder at Mortgage Matchup Center on Sunday, January 4 (8:00 PM ET).
The Thunder enter 30-5, first in the Western Conference, and they’re riding a four-game win streak, while the Suns sit 20-14 in seventh. This is already Game 3 of the season series, with the Thunder up 2-0 after a 123-119 win on Nov. 28 and a 138-89 blowout on Dec. 10.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is leading the Thunder with 32.1 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 6.4 assists per game, with Chet Holmgren at 18.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, and 1.6 assists, plus Jalen Williams at 16.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 5.4 assists.
For the Suns, Devin Booker is at 25.7 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 6.3 assists, Dillon Brooks is at 21.4 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 1.6 assists, and Mark Williams is at 12.8 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 1.1 assists.
Injury Report
Suns
Jalen Green: Out (right hamstring strain)
Grayson Allen: Questionable (right knee injury management)
Jordan Goodwin: Available (jaw sprain, mask)
Thunder
Ousmane Dieng: Out (right calf strain)
Isaiah Hartenstein: Out (right soleus strain)
Thomas Sorber: Out (right ACL, surgical recovery)
Nikola Topic: Out (surgical recovery)
Jaylin Williams: Out (right heel bursitis)
Isaiah Joe: Questionable (left knee soreness)
Cason Wallace: Questionable (right knee soreness)
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
The Suns’ case starts with the setting and the profile. They’re 20-14 overall and playing in a spot where they’ve been steady, going 11-5 at home.
They also aren’t a complete mess defensively. They’re allowing 113.4 points per game, which sits 6th in the league, and that matters because the only way to survive the Thunder is to avoid the avalanche quarters. If the Suns can keep this from turning into a track meet, they can make it a possession game late.
And momentum-wise, they’ve been trending the right way lately. They’ve won five of their last six, and when they’re confident, they play faster and looser, which is exactly what you need at home in a game like this.
Why The Thunder Have The Advantage
The Thunder’s advantage is simple: they’ve been the best team in the league this season, and the numbers scream it.
They’re 30-5, scoring 122.4 points per game, and allowing just 107.1, which is 1st in the league. That’s not “good,” that’s “you’re starting every night up 8 before the ball goes up.”
They also just keep stacking statement wins. Their most recent one was a total wipeout on the Warriors, and it fit the exact Thunder formula: early pressure, runs that break your legs, and a scoreboard that’s basically disrespectful by the fourth quarter.
Even with a few rotation pieces banged up, their identity doesn’t change. They defend, they run, and they have multiple guys who can spike a quarter. If the Suns blink for five minutes, this can turn into another one of those “it was close until it wasn’t” games.
X-Factors
For the Suns, Dillon Brooks is the chaos engine. He’s the type who can change the emotional temperature of the game. If he’s hitting threes and jawing, the Suns suddenly play with way more swagger.
Collin Gillespie has been a real factor too. He’s at 14.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and if he keeps the Suns organized when the Thunder crank the pressure, that’s massive. Against this defense, just getting into your stuff cleanly is half the battle.
Mark Williams is the last one, because you can’t survive the Thunder without winning some of the inside possessions. If he controls the glass and finishes through contact, it gives the Suns a way to score without relying on perfect shot-making.
For the Thunder, Aaron Wiggins is the sneaky swing. He’s averaging 10.3 points, 2.7 rebounds, and 1.7 assists, and his value is that he can instantly punish shaky bench minutes with quick buckets. If the Suns load up on the stars and the second unit relaxes, Wiggins can turn that into a problem fast.
Isaiah Joe matters too, especially with his status up in the air. He’s at 10.7 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.5 assists, and his shooting is the kind that blows up game plans. If he plays and gets rolling, the Suns’ defensive margin for error basically disappears.
Luguentz Dort is the other one, because games like this can turn into a wing wrestling match. He’s putting up 8.2 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 1.1 assists, but the real value is that he can make Booker’s life annoying for 36 minutes without needing touches. If Dort turns this into a grind, it favors the Thunder’s depth.
Prediction
The Suns’ home floor and Booker give them a real puncher’s chance, but the Thunder’s season-long dominance feels like too much to bet against, especially with how clean their margin has been on both ends.
Prediction: Thunder 118, Suns 110
