The Los Angeles Lakers host the Memphis Grizzlies at Crypto.com Arena on Sunday, January 4 (9:30 PM ET), and it’s a weird one because it basically feels like a sequel two days later.
The Lakers come in 21-11 and sitting 5th in the West, while the Grizzlies are 15-19 and down at 10th. These teams already played Friday, and the Lakers won 128-121, and they’ve already clinched the season series by winning the first two meetings. Sunday is the third and final matchup.
Star-wise, it still starts with Luka Doncic putting up 33.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 8.7 assists per game, and LeBron James at 20.9 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 6.5 assists. The big swing is that Austin Reaves is out, and he’s been giving the Lakers 26.6 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 6.3 assists.
For the Grizzlies, Ja Morant sits at 19.0 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 7.6 assists but he’s questionable, and Jaren Jackson Jr. has been the steady pillar at 18.6 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 2.0 assists.
Injury Report
Lakers
Rui Hachimura: Out (right calf strain)
Austin Reaves: Out (left calf strain)
Adou Thiero: Out (right MCL sprain)
Gabe Vincent: Out (lumbar back strain)
Grizzlies
Brandon Clarke: Out (right calf strain)
Zach Edey: Out (left ankle stress reaction)
Ty Jerome: Out (right calf strain)
John Konchar: Out (left thumb UCL surgery recovery)
Scotty Pippen Jr.: Out (left great toe surgery recovery)
Vince Williams Jr.: Out (left patellar tendinitis)
Santi Aldama: Questionable (right ankle soreness)
Ja Morant: Questionable (right calf contusion)
Why The Lakers Have The Advantage
The Lakers basically live in high-pace, high-skill games, and even when they wobble defensively, they can still win the math with shot-making.
They’re scoring 117.3 points per game with 28.1 assists, and they shoot 48.0% from the field. If the game turns into a “who can generate clean looks late” contest, the Lakers usually like that bet at home.
And even though the point differential stuff isn’t flattering, the context matters: they’re 9-6 at home, and they come in on a one-game win streak with a chance to string wins together for the first time in a bit.
Why The Grizzlies Have The Advantage
The Grizzlies can still win this if they turn it into a possession game: rebound, run, and keep the Lakers from playing comfortable half-court offense all night.
They pull down 45.8 rebounds per game and they create extra chaos with 8.0 steals and 5.0 blocks per game. That’s a real identity. If they win the glass and force a handful of live-ball mistakes, they can flip the entire tone of the matchup.
Also, the Lakers have allowed 117.3 points per game, so if the Grizzlies get downhill early and keeps the pressure on, the scoring will be there. The issue is they’re limping in on a three-game losing streak and they’ve been shakier on the road (8-10).
X-Factors
Deandre Ayton feels massive here because he can turn the Lakers into a different team if he dominates the “easy points” areas. He’s averaging 14.3 points, 8.5 rebounds, and 0.8 assists, and if he controls the paint minutes, the Lakers won’t need a perfect shooting night to get separation.
Marcus Smart is the other swing piece. He’s at 9.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, and his value is simple: he can wreck the Grizzlies’ rhythm possessions. If he blows up two or three actions a quarter, it adds up fast in a game that’s probably close again.
Dalton Knecht is the wildcard shooter. He’s averaging 5.4 points, 1.8 rebounds, and 0.7 assists, and if he hits a couple threes in that second-unit stretch, it forces the Grizzlies to defend higher and opens lanes for the Lakers’ creators.
For the Grizzlies, Santi Aldama matters a ton if he plays. He’s putting up 14.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 3.0 assists, and he’s the kind of spacing big who can pull the Lakers’ size away from the rim.
Jaylen Wells is the “energy scorer” who can swing the middle of the game. He’s averaging 12.3 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 1.8 assists, and if he wins those non-star minutes, the Grizzlies suddenly have enough juice to survive the stretches without clean Morant creation.
And Jock Landale has quietly been a real factor. He’s at 11.0 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists, and if he gives the Grizzlies solid interior scoring plus rebounds, it helps cover for the Edey absence and keeps them from getting bullied inside.
Prediction
If Morant plays and looks right, this gets uncomfortable fast, because the Grizzlies can absolutely make the Lakers defend for real. But with the Lakers at home and already controlling the season series, I’m leaning Lakers again in another game that feels closer than it should.
Prediction: Lakers 120, Grizzlies 114
