After three games, the NBA Finals have taught us what to expect. The New York Knicks still lead the series 2-1, but Game 3 showed that San Antonio is far from finished. The San Antonio Spurs finally looked like the team that dominated the Western Conference, beating New York 115-111 behind a monster performance from Victor Wembanyama.
What’s remarkable is that neither team has truly played its best basketball for an entire game. New York survived despite Jalen Brunson shooting just 29-85 (34.1%) across the first three games, along with some questionable calls from referees. San Antonio stole Game 3 despite De’Aaron Fox shooting only 4-14 and despite being outrebounded 46-37. There are still adjustments available on both sides.
Game 4 may ultimately decide the championship. If the Knicks win, they move one victory away from a title. If the Spurs win, the series becomes a best-of-three with momentum suddenly shifting toward San Antonio.
Here are the seven factors most likely to determine who walks away victorious.
1. Which Version Of Victor Wembanyama Shows Up?
This has become the biggest storyline of the series. Through three games, Wembanyama is averaging 29.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 3.3 blocks, and 3.7 turnovers. He is shooting 46.7% from the field, 31.6% from deep, and 83.3% from the stripe with a 59.4% true-shooting percentage.
The raw numbers look dominant, but they don’t tell the full story. His aggressiveness has varied wildly from game to game.
In Game 1, he scored 26 points but needed 21 shots and committed six turnovers. In Game 2, he scored 29 points but struggled late and finished with four turnovers. Then came Game 3, where he erupted for 32 points on 11-18 shooting while adding six assists, three blocks, and just one turnover.
The difference was obvious. Instead of settling for jumpers, he attacked the rim. Instead of holding the ball and inviting double teams, he made quick decisions.
The Knicks have no answer when Wembanyama is decisive. Karl-Anthony Towns can battle him physically. Mitchell Robinson can provide help. OG Anunoby can dig down from the perimeter. None of it matters when Wembanyama gets downhill.
If Game 3, Wembanyama shows up again, the Spurs become incredibly difficult to beat.
2. Karl-Anthony Towns Winning His Matchup Again
Lost in all the Wembanyama discussion is how effective Towns has been. Over the first three games, Towns has averaged 16.7 points and 11.0 rebounds while shooting an efficient 51.4% from the field. More importantly, he has consistently forced Wembanyama to work on defense.
Game 2 was particularly impressive. Towns finished with 21 points on 8-12 shooting and grabbed 13 rebounds while helping New York steal a road win. Even if Game 3 was a slower game for Towns, it wasn’t all on him.
His ability to stretch the floor creates unique problems for San Antonio. Wembanyama loves protecting the rim, but Towns pulls him away from the basket and opens driving lanes for Brunson and Bridges.
When Towns is making shots, New York’s offense becomes nearly impossible to guard.
The Spurs need to make him uncomfortable early. If Towns gets rolling again, New York’s offense reaches another level.
3. Will De’Aaron Fox Finally Deliver A Complete Game?
San Antonio cannot afford another inconsistent Fox performance.
His scoring totals have been misleading throughout the series. In Game 1, he managed just seven points on 3-13 shooting. In Game 2, he scored 20 but committed four turnovers. In Game 3, he shot only 4-14 but offset it with eight assists.
The Spurs need more.
Fox is supposed to be the veteran star who takes pressure off Wembanyama. Instead, too often he has become a secondary contributor rather than a co-headliner.
New York has been happy to let Fox settle for perimeter shots. Across the series, he is shooting just 2-11 from three-point range.
When Fox attacks the paint, the Spurs become significantly harder to defend. His speed remains one of the few things the Knicks struggle to contain.
Game 4 feels like the moment San Antonio needs its All-Star point guard to take over.
4. The Spurs’ Ability To Protect The Basketball
This might be the most underrated statistic in the entire series. San Antonio committed 13 turnovers in Game 1, 16 in Game 2, and only eight in Game 3.
The result? Their first win.
Game 3 completely changed because the Spurs refused to give New York extra possessions. Despite being outrebounded by nine, San Antonio still won because it protected the ball.
The contrast was striking. New York committed 13 turnovers while the Spurs committed only eight.
If San Antonio keeps turnovers in single digits again, they dramatically improve their chances of evening the series.
5. Jalen Brunson Finally Shooting Efficiently
This sounds crazy considering his scoring totals. Brunson scored 30 points in Game 1 and 32 points in Game 3. Yet he has needed enormous volume to get there.
Through three games, Brunson has shot:
Game 1: 12-31
Game 2: 7-25
Game 3: 11-25
That’s 37.0% shooting overall.
The Spurs deserve credit for making every look difficult. The ever-confident and brash Stephon Castle has done a tremendous job staying attached while also getting it done on offense with a 54.8% true-shooting percentage. Wembanyama’s length has altered drives. The Spurs have consistently sent extra help.
But New York has survived despite Brunson’s inefficiency.
If Brunson finally has one of those signature 14-24 type performances, the Knicks could put immense pressure on San Antonio.
The scary part for the Spurs is that New York already leads the series despite Brunson not playing his most efficient basketball.
6. Which Supporting Cast Steps Up?
Championships are often decided by role players. Game 3 offered a few examples.
For San Antonio, Champagnie scored 12 points and knocked down three triples. Devin Vassell scored 11 points while shooting 3-4 from deep. Castle exploded for 23 points on 8-14 shooting, including 2-5 from deep.
For New York, OG Anunoby scored 28 points (9-13 FG) while Jordan Clarkson chipped in 10 points off the bench.
Both teams desperately need secondary scoring.
The Knicks have received 62 combined points from Anunoby over the last three games. The Spurs have received 54 combined points from Castle in the series.
Whichever team’s role players outperform expectations could swing the entire night.
Stars usually get you close. Role players often determine who wins.
7. The Crucial Rebounding Battle
This is where Game 4 may ultimately be decided. New York has won the rebounding battle in two of the three games and owns a plus-6 advantage overall in the series.
In Game 3 alone, the Knicks grabbed 46 rebounds compared to San Antonio’s 37. They also collected 12 offensive rebounds, creating numerous second-chance opportunities.
Josh Hart continues to be a major factor. Even in Game 2, when he failed to score, he grabbed six rebounds and helped control possessions. In Game 1, he pulled down 15 boards.
For San Antonio, Wembanyama, Castle, and Dylan Harper must help on the glass. The Spurs cannot rely solely on Wembanyama to clean everything up.
Extra possessions become even more valuable in Finals games, where every basket is difficult to earn.
If New York dominates the glass again, they’ll likely head home with a commanding 3-1 lead. If San Antonio can finally win the rebounding battle, the Finals could suddenly become a three-game sprint.
