The Full Comparison Of The Top 5 Best Candidates For The 2023 NBA MVP Award

For most of the last few months, the 2022-23 MVP race has been one of the most exciting races the NBA has had in a long time. Atop the leaderboard are the usual suspects, including the players who have finished first and second in each of the last two seasons. Filling out the rest of the Top Five are a familiar face in terms of MVP winners and two young budding superstars looking to capture the first award of their young careers.

The Top Five I am speaking of could just be the most talent we have seen in an MVP race over the last two decades. Today, we will compare these players using a point system based on their basic and advanced statistics. We will take a look at their scoring, rebounding, passing, defense, and efficiency and award them 1-5 points based on where they compare with each other. This point system is by no means an end-all-be-all for the award, but certainly gives us better insight into why these five players are where they are in terms of the MVP at this moment in time.

In one of the more interesting comparisons in recent memory, here is the comparison of the Top Five MVP candidates in the NBA right now.

Points

1. Joel Embiid – 33.5 PPG (5 Points)

2. Luka Doncic – 33.4 PPG (4 Points)

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 31.8 PPG (3 Points)

4. Jayson Tatum – 31.1 PPG (2 Points)

5. Nikola Jokic – 25.1 PPG (1 Point)

When it comes to scoring, Joel Embiid and Luka Doncic are neck and neck for the NBA’s scoring title at the moment. Embiid is coming off a scoring title in 2022 which was the first time we saw a center win a scoring title since Shaq 21 years ago. As the year continues on, expect Doncic and Embiid’s battle to continue considering they are their team’s number one guy as far as offense goes. At the moment, Embiid takes five points from this category for his 0.1 PPG advantage over Doncic.

As far as Jayson Tatum and Giannis are concerned, they are within striking distance of the top spot of these MVP candidates, but they have a ton of work to do to catch up. For Tatum, he has a teammate sharing the offensive duties with him, as Jaylen Brown is averaging over 27.0 PPG for Boston this season. Giannis can go on a scoring tear at any moment, so it will be interesting to see where they both end up by the season’s end. As for the MVP front-runner Nikola Jokic, who is chasing Larry Bird as the last player to win 3 MVP awards in a row, he will most likely not catch any of the leaders here right now but has provided value in so many other ways, it simply does not matter if he improves his scoring average at this point in time, especially as the first seed in the Western Conference.

Rebounds

1. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 12.2 RPG (5 Points)

2. Nikola Jokic – 11.1 RPG (4 Points)

3. Joel Embiid – 10.1 RPG (3 Points)

4. Luka Doncic – 8.9 RPG (2 Points)

5. Jayson Tatum – 8.7 RPG (1 Point)

Giannis Antetokounmpo earns his first category win in the rebounding department and is awarded five points as a result. He is currently leading Nikola Jokic, who earned four points in this category, by 1.1 RPG, and Joel Embiid, who earned three points, by 2.1 RPG. The battle of the rebounding category will likely remain between these three MVP candidates as they are the leading rebounders on their respective teams and play either the power forward or center positions. 

As for Doncic and Tatum, they are off by a long shot as of right now. While rebounds in this era are much easier to come by for perimeter players, Doncic and Tatum virtually have no chance of catching the three bigs ahead of them unless they miraculously start pulling down 15 rebounds per game for the remainder of the season. While it is no longer an extremely physical battle for rebounds in the NBA, it will be interesting to see who comes out on top for this category by the end of the season.

Assists

1. Nikola Jokic – 10.0 APG (5 Points)

2. Luka Doncic – 8.3 APG (4 Points)

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 5.2 APG (3 Points)

4. Jayson Tatum – 4.4 APG (2 Points)

5. Joel Embiid – 4.2 APG (1 Point)

It is pretty unbelievable that we are awarding the assists category to a center, but Nikola Jokic is not your average center. As a matter of fact, Jokic is one of, if not the, best playmakers in the entire NBA. Jokic is sometimes too much of a playmaker, solely looking to make the right play or pass rather than being aggressive as a scorer. The only player with any sort of chance to catch Jokic is Luka Doncic, with his 8.3 APG. As the primary playmaker and scorer on a team that desperately looks for him to do almost everything, Doncic still has a slight chance to catch Jokic by the season’s end.

With all three of the other candidates averaging less than 5.5 APG, their chances of taking this category are slim to none. Giannis is the third-place passer with 5.2 APG, and Milwaukee doesn’t really look to him to be a pass-first type of player. As for Tatum and Embiid, they each have teammates who are the number one playmakers. This category is a two-man race, as there are less than 40 games left in the 2022-23 season.

Steals

1. Luka Doncic – 1.5 SPG (5 Points)

2. Nikola Jokic – 1.4 SPG (4 Points)

T3. Jayson Tatum – 1.1 SPG (3 Points)

T3. Joel Embiid – 1.1 SPG (3 Points)

5. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 0.8 SPG (1 Point)

The first category on the defensive side of the ball is an interesting one, to say the least. The two players at the top of the category in steals are widely referred to as horrible defenders. Luka Doncic is awarded the five points for steals, leading our MVP candidates with 1.5 SPG. Directly behind him is Nikola Jokic, with 1.4 SPG. Both Doncic and Jokic seem to be the two that will remain at the top of steals for quite some time, but the others are right behind.

Jayson Tatum and Joel Embiid are both tied for the third spot on the steals list with 1.1 SPG each. With both considered to be better defenders than the players in front of them, I would be shocked if either of these two do not make a run at the top spot. The most surprising part of the steals category is Giannis finishing dead last out of these five players with less than 1.0 SPG. As probably the best defender on this list, he has no chance of catching the top players in this one.

Blocks

1. Joel Embiid – 1.7 BPG (5 Points)

T2. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 0.8 BPG (4 Points)

T2. Jayson Tatum – 0.8 BPG (4 Points)

4. Nikola Jokic – 0.5 BPG (2 Points)

5. Luka Doncic – 0.4 BPG (1 Point)

As we make our way into the blocks category, Joel Embiid is far and away the winner of first place and the five points awarded. Embiid is the only player out of the five averaging at least 1.0 BPG and is averaging over double the blocks of the next two players on this list, Jayson Tatum and Giannis Antetokounmpo. There is no coincidence that these three are at the top of this category as the three best interior defenders out of the five.

Overall, Doncic and Jokic are probably the worst two overall defenders out of the five MVP candidates. Realistically, every one after Embiid on this list has zero chance of catching him for the five points to be awarded by the end of the season. As the best interior defender of the five here, his production will continue in that aspect of the game.

Turnovers

1. Jayson Tatum – 2.8 TOV (5 Points)

2. Nikola Jokic – 3.5 TOV (4 Points)

3. Luka Doncic – 3.6 TOV (3 Points)

4. Joel Embiid – 3.7 TOV (2 Points)

5. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 4.1 TOV (1 Point)

Jayson Tatum finally grabs his first category win as the leader in turnovers per game. I say leader as in the player with the least amount of turnovers, considering that giving up possessions is a bad thing. Tatum is the only player giving up the ball less than three times per game, while all the others are giving up at least 3.5 turnovers per game.

The next two players on the list, even being this high, is impressive, considering their usage rate and how the offense runs through them. Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic are at historic usage rates and being extremely careful with the ball making them two of the more impressive playmakers here. Joel Embiid and Giannis are giving up the most turnovers per game, with Giannis being the only one over 4.0 turnovers. At this rate, no one can catch Tatum as far as the least amount of turnovers goes.

Shooting (FG-3PT-FT) 

1. Nikola Jokic – 63-39-83 (5 Points)

2. Joel Embiid – 53-36-86 (4 Points)

3. Jayson Tatum – 47-36-87 (3 Points)

4. Luka Doncic – 50-35-73 (2 Points)

5. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 54-27-65 (1 Point)

As far as efficiency when shooting the ball, Nikola Jokic takes another category and earns five more points. Jokic is currently shooting 63.2% from the field overall, which is by far a career-high for him in his eight-year career. The next closest player to Jokic as a shooter is Joel Embiid, who is shooting 53.4% from the field but is also converting on 85.5% of his foul shots, which is second to only Jayson Tatum of these Top Five candidates.

Tatum comes in third on this list in shooting as he is shooting the ball at 46.8% overall, which is the lowest of any player of these five. Where he makes up for it is on his foul shots and three-point attempts. Luka Donciccomes in at fourth, and bringing up the rear is Giannis Antetokounmpo. Doncic is shooting over 50.0% from the field, but his three-point shooting and foul line struggles continue. Giannis is in the same realm as Luka with an above 50.0 FG% but is shooting just 27.3% from three and under 65.0% at the foul line. This late in the season, it may be impossible for any players to catch Jokic and Embiid at this point, making it a two-man race in the shooting department. 

Efficiency

1. Nikola Jokic – Nikola Jokic – 32.1 PER (5 Points)

2. Joel Embiid – 30.7 PER (4 Points)

3. Luka Doncic – 30.3 PER (3 Points)

4. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 27.9 PER (2 Points)

5. Jayson Tatum – 24.6 PER (1 Points)

PER is a decent measurement of a player’s overall efficiency. It measures what each player contributes on the offensive side of the ball as well as taking into account their mistakes. For the third year in a row, Nikola Jokic is leading the entire NBA in PER. This shouldn’t come as surprise because watching Jokic for five minutes will tell you that he is the most efficient player in basketball. Two other players have a chance to catch Jokic and have a PER over 30.0, and that is Luka Doncic and Joel Embiid. Considering their PER, it is no surprise that these three are the Top three in the MVP race right now.

This does not take away from the efficient seasons that Jayson Tatum and Giannis Antetokounmpo are having either. It is just those three players are well ahead of them in this category. Tatum and Giannis are probably out of this race, while Embiid and Jokic still have a chance to catch Jokic. However, with Jokic averaging a triple-double as a center, it does not seem too likely to happen.

Team Record

1. Jayson Tatum – 37-15 (5 Points)

2. Nikola Jokic – 35-16 (4 Points)

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 34-17 (3 Points)

4. Joel Embiid – 33-17 (2 Points)

5. Luka Doncic – 27-25 (1 Point)

Now it is time to see where each of these players’ teams rank due to their performance so far this season. Jayson Tatum leads the way, as Boston has the best record in basketball. It is important to note that Tatum has a stellar supporting cast and another teammate averaging over 27.0 PPG. Nikola Jokic is right behind him as the Nuggets are the best team in the West as of this moment and could easily catch the Celtics.

The Sixers and Bucks are both within three games of Boston as well in one of the most highly contested races in years for the NBA teams at the top of each conference. As for Luka Doncic, he is struggling with a subpar supporting cast and sits at 27-25, which is good for fifth in the Western Conference at this moment. Doncic is most likely the only player here, and no matter what he does, his team will not be able to catch the other guys at the top.

Who Is The MVP Right Now?

Total Points Accumulated

1. Nikola Jokic – 34 Points (3 Categories Won)

2. Joel Embiid – 29 Points (2 Categories Won)

3. Jayson Tatum – 26 Points (1 Category Won)

4. Luka Doncic – 25 Points (1 Category Won)

5. Giannis Antetokounmpo – 23 Points (1 Category Won)

This points system we have created has given us a great insight into the reality of the MVP conversation right now. I’d say 90% of fans would agree that Nikola Jokic is the clear favorite right now. His team is the best in its conference, and he is averaging a triple-double as a center while leading the NBA in PER once again. I would also say that most fans would agree that Embiid has inserted himself right behind Jokic at this point for the third year in a row.

What this system also indicates is just how close the MVP race really is. After the small gap between Jokic and Embiid, you will see how close the race is between the remaining three players. Doncic has to get his team to a better standing in order to present any sort of challenge for the award. Both Tatum and Giannis take a hit because of their supporting casts despite the greatness they have exuded this season. What will be interesting is to see how this MVP race plays out and how close this point system does measure up to the real results when the award is finally announced at the end of the year. 

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