This is not the soft 3-6 matchup it might look like at first glance. The Knicks open their series against the Hawks on Saturday, April 18, at 6:00 PM ET at Madison Square Garden, with one team trying to play like a real East contender and the other coming in as one of the hottest groups in the conference.
The Knicks won the season series 2-1, but they were outscored by six points across those three games, so this opener does not feel like a spot where the higher seed can relax.
The series shape is pretty clear already. The Knicks want a half-court game built around Jalen Brunson and Karl-Anthony Towns. The Hawks want pace, pressure, and a game with more broken possessions. That is what makes Game 1 interesting. The Knicks had the better season and the cleaner playoff résumé going in. The Hawks had the better late-season surge, going 22-9 after February 1, and that is a big reason this matchup feels dangerous right away.
The regular-season meetings tell the same story. The Knicks won 128-125 on December 27, lost 111-99 on January 2, and won 108-105 on April 6. Brunson was excellent in the matchup, and he put up 29.3 points and 7.8 assists against the Hawks. Towns was even more punishing, with 28.5 points and 13.5 rebounds in two meetings. So the Knicks know where their best offense is supposed to come from. The question is whether they can get to it against the Hawks’ length on the wing.
Injury Report
Knicks
No players listed on the official team update for Game 1.
Hawks
Jock Landale: Out (right high ankle sprain)
Why The Knicks Have The Advantage
The season-long numbers still lean Knicks. They finished with an 118.9 offensive rating, a 112.2 defensive rating, and a plus-6.6 net rating. The Hawks were at 115.1 on offense, 112.6 on defense, and plus-2.5 overall. That is the big-picture argument for the opener. The Knicks were better over the full sample on both ends, and they did it while playing a slower style that usually holds up well in Game 1 settings.
After that, the edge becomes more about matchup pressure than broad stats. The Hawks do not have a clean answer for Towns. If they guard him with a big man, he can drag that defender out and make the floor bigger for Brunson. If they put a wing on him, he can score over the top or drive it. Our series preview was blunt on this.
Towns was a major problem in the regular season, and the Hawks still have to solve that. In Game 1, the Knicks should test that early with post seals, slot pick-and-pops, and quick actions that make the Hawks choose between helping on Brunson or staying home on Towns.
The Knicks also have a good way to attack the Hawks’ pressure. The Hawks want to get into the ball and make Brunson start possessions later in the clock. That is where Josh Hart, Mikal Bridges, and OG Anunoby matter. If Brunson gives it up early and the Knicks move into the next action fast, the Hawks’ pressure becomes less effective.
The other place the Knicks can control Game 1 is rebounding. Mitchell Robinson is a real weapon here because he can create extra possessions without needing touches. Against a Hawks team that wants to run, that matters a lot. If Robinson is extending possessions and Towns is finishing defensive rebounds, the Knicks can take some of the pace out of the game without changing their offense much at all.
Why The Hawks Have The Advantage
The best season-based case for the Hawks is the jump they made after the break. They were outscoring opponents by 9.7 points per 100 possessions after the All-Star break, which was the fifth-best mark in the league and a huge jump from where they were earlier in the season. So while the Knicks had the better full year, the Hawks are not coming in like a normal No. 6 seed. They are coming in like a team that got meaningfully better.
From a matchup standpoint, the biggest Hawks edge is their wing group. Jalen Johnson, Dyson Daniels, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker give them size, speed, and real point-of-attack defense. Brunson is still the head of everything for the Knicks. The Hawks are going to throw length at him, try to crowd his handle, and make him give the ball up early. They probably are not stopping him. But if they can keep him from walking into his spots and make the Knicks start possessions 30 feet from the basket instead of 20, that changes the feel of the game.
The Hawks also have a real pace angle here. They ranked fifth in pace and third in fast-break points, while the Knicks were down at 25th in pace. That is the style battle in one sentence. The Hawks want more possessions and more chances to turn defense into offense.
If they get live-ball turnovers or long rebounds and start running, the Knicks have a harder time getting Towns and Robinson into the game the way they want. That is why the Hawks’ pressure on Brunson and ball security from the Knicks are probably the first two things to watch.
X-Factors
OG Anunoby is a big one for the Knicks because this feels like a game where they need his defense and his spacing at the same time. He finished the season with 16.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists while shooting 38.6% from three. The Hawks have a lot of size on the wing, so the Knicks need Anunoby to hold his matchup and still punish the extra help that comes toward Brunson and Towns. If he is hitting those catch-and-shoot threes and giving the Knicks strong wing defense, the whole team looks a lot more stable.
Mikal Bridges is another one because he is the kind of player who can settle a Game 1 without needing a huge scoring night. He had 14.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.3 steals, and 0.8 blocks this season. The Knicks need him to make simple plays, not hero plays. Hit the open three, attack a bent defense, make the extra pass, defend multiple wings. If Bridges gives the Knicks that kind of steady game, they are much harder to speed up.
Dyson Daniels is a real X-factor for the Hawks because he can change the game without being the top scorer. He finished with 11.9 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5.9 assists, and 2.0 steals while shooting 51.7% from the field. His job is simple in this series. Make Brunson work, get hands on the ball, and help the Hawks create transition chances. If Daniels is active at the point of attack and forces the Knicks into a few ugly possessions, the Hawks get closer to the kind of game they want.
Jonathan Kuminga is another one because his bench minutes can change the tone fast. He was off the injury report updates heading into Game 1, and the Hawks need his force. He attacks the rim, runs the floor, and gives them one more athlete who can put pressure on the Knicks before the defense is set. If he wins those second-unit minutes, the Hawks can steal part of the game even if the Knicks starters are better overall.
Prediction
This feels like a real test for the Knicks, not a warm-up. The Hawks have the wing size to bother Brunson, the pace to make the game uncomfortable, and enough recent form to believe they can grab one on the road. But Game 1 still leans Knicks for a pretty simple reason. Brunson and Towns are the two hardest matchup problems on the floor, and the Knicks have more ways to control the pace if they protect the ball and win the glass. I think the Hawks make this ugly for long stretches, but the Knicks should get enough half-court offense late to hold serve.
Prediction: Knicks 114, Hawks 108
