The Celtics host the Heat at TD Garden on Friday, February 6, at 7:30 PM ET.
The Celtics come in 33-18 (3rd in the East), and they’ve been strong at home at 16-8. The Heat are 27-25 (8th in the East) and 11-15 on the road.
The Celtics are rolling. They just beat the Rockets 114-93 on the road, and they’ve won four straight. The Heat are coming off a 127-115 loss to the Hawks, so the vibe is very different entering this one, as the Celtics lead 2-0 in the season series.
For the Celtics, it starts with Jaylen Brown (29.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists) being a top-end scorer every night, and Derrick White (17.3 points, 5.6 assists) being the stabilizer who keeps the offense organized.
For the Heat, Bam Adebayo (18.1 points, 9.9 rebounds, 2.8 assists) sets the floor with physicality and rebounding, and Norman Powell (23.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists) is the main shot-maker with Tyler Herro out.
Injury Report
Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Out (right Achilles repair)
Josh Minott: Out (trade pending)
Xavier Tillman: Out (trade pending)
Heat
Tyler Herro: Out (right costochondral; injury to the ribs)
Terry Rozier: Out (not with team)
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
Defense is the Celtics’ key, and it’s not close. The Celtics are giving up 108.6 points per game, with 5.2 blocks behind that, which matters against a Heat team that lives on pace and volume.
The other big edge is shot quality control. The Heat are scoring 119.9 points per game, but they’re also allowing 118.0, which usually means you can hang around even if your offense is just “good.” The Celtics don’t need to win a track meet here. If they keep the Heat in the half-court, they’re already playing their game.
And with the season series already 2-0, the Celtics have a clear blueprint: don’t overreact to the Heat’s bursts, stay connected, and let the defense win the math over 48 minutes.
Why The Heat Have The Advantage
The Heat’s path is to drag this into an offensive shootout and make the Celtics match their tempo. They’re at 119.9 points per game, plus they generate quick points with 9.1 steals. If they turn defense into instant offense, they can make the Celtics’ half-court possessions feel heavy.
They also move the ball at a high level, sitting at 28.7 assists per game. If the Heat are getting two in the paint and spraying to shooters before the Celtics set their shell, that’s when their offense looks unfair.
X-Factors
For the Celtics, Payton Pritchard is the swing. He’s at 17.1 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 5.3 assists, and with Anfernee Simons traded, those “bench” minutes don’t play like bench minutes anymore. If Pritchard wins his stretch, the Celtics can separate without needing Brown to play hero ball.
Neemias Queta is the other one, because he can tilt possessions. He’s averaging 10.1 points and 8.3 rebounds while shooting 63.7% from the field, and he just ripped down 19 boards in the Rockets’ win. If he controls the glass, the Heat’s transition game gets throttled.
For the Heat, Davion Mitchell is huge because he’s the organizer when Herro sits. He’s at 9.0 points and 7.3 assists, and his ability to keep the ball moving matters against a set defense like this. If Mitchell is getting downhill and creating paint touches, the Heat offense stays alive.
And watch Pelle Larsson. He’s at 10.5 points, 3.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists on efficient shooting, and the Heat need his secondary creation and spacing to keep defenses honest when Powell is the main scorer.
Prediction
I’m taking the Celtics. The defensive gap is the cleanest bet on the board: 108.6 allowed is elite, while the Heat giving up 118.0 is basically an open invite for a disciplined offense to get comfortable. If the Celtics control the glass and keep turnovers reasonable, the Heat’s “run you out” plan doesn’t have enough stops behind it.
Prediction: Celtics 116, Heat 108
