The Suns host the Celtics at PHX Arena on Tuesday, February 24, at 9:00 PM ET. The Suns enter 33-25 as the No. 7 seed in the West, and the Celtics come in 37-19 as the No. 2 seed in the East.
Home and road splits frame the urgency: the Suns are 19-11 at home, while the Celtics are 19-10 on the road.
The Suns’ latest game was a 92-77 loss to the Trail Blazers, a night where the offense never found traction. The Celtics’ latest game was a 111-89 win over the Lakers, keeping their surge rolling.
This is the first meeting of the season, with the rematch scheduled later on the Celtics’ floor. Jaylen Brown is averaging 29.2 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 4.9 assists, and Derrick White is at 17.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 5.7 assists.
Devin Booker is averaging 24.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 6.1 assists, and Grayson Allen is at 17.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, and 3.9 assists.
The hook is simple: the Suns are trying to survive a brutal availability stretch without bleeding ground in the West, and the Celtics are trying to bank another road win before the schedule tightens again.
Injury Report
Celtics
Jayson Tatum: Out (right achilles repair)
Jaylen Brown: Questionable (right knee contusion)
Suns
Devin Booker: Out (right hip strain)
Dillon Brooks: Out (left hand fracture)
Cole Anthony: Out (not with team)
Jordan Goodwin: Out (left calf strain)
Haywood Highsmith: Out (right knee injury management)
Grayson Allen: Questionable (right knee and ankle injury management)
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
The Suns’ defense gives them a real chance to keep the game in range, even with the scoring hit. They rank fifth in opponent points per game (111.6) and sixth in opponent fastbreak points allowed (13.9), which matters against a Celtics group that can bury you when possessions get sloppy.
They also create extra possessions in a way that translates every night. The Suns are second in steals per game (10.1) and third in opponent turnovers forced per game (16.7). If they can turn a handful of Celtics half-court trips into runouts, that is how an undermanned offense keeps pace.
The glass is the other pressure point they can lean on. The Suns are fifth in offensive rebounds per game (13.1) and seventh in offensive rebound rate (29.0%). If they generate second shots, they can live with a lower shot-making baseline and still get to a workable scoring number.
The three-point volume is still there, even if the efficiency has been uneven. The Suns are sixth in three-point attempts per game (40.4) and eighth in threes made per game (14.5). The cleanest path is simple: keep launching, win the possession battle, and let volume do the damage over 48 minutes.
The concern is that the offense has been in the bottom third overall. The Suns are 24th in points per game (112.6), 27th in field goal percentage (45.4%), and 24th in offensive effective field goal percentage (53.4%). Without their leading scorer, Devin Booker, plus a 20.9 PPG Dillon Brooks, the Suns are in a tough spot against a top Celtics defense.
Why The Celtics Have The Advantage
The Celtics’ identity is defense plus control. They are second in opponent points per game (108.0) and second in opponent points in the paint per game (41.0), which is a rough combination for a Suns team already fighting shot creation.
They also live at the top of the efficiency ladder. The Celtics are second in offensive rating (120.8), so even if their raw points per game sits in the middle (115.3, 18th), the possession-by-possession scoring is elite. That usually travels, especially when the opponent is short-handed.
This matchup specifically points to the volume math from deep. The Celtics are third in three-point attempts per game (42.3). If they get to their normal attempt number, it forces the Suns to either stay hugged to shooters or give up the kind of threes that swing a game in six minutes.
They also rebound well enough to avoid the “second-shot” trap. The Celtics are seventh in rebounds per game (55.3) and eighth in opponent rebounds allowed (52.3). That matters because the Suns’ cleanest advantage is offensive rebounding, and the Celtics have enough size and structure to blunt it.
If the Suns need a lot of points at the foul line, the numbers do not favor it. The Suns are 28th in free-throw attempts per game (20.1) and 29th in free-throw rate (FTA/FGA 0.222). That is a problem against a defense that already limits paint damage and forces you to score over a set floor.
X-Factors
Payton Pritchard is the Celtics’ volume swing off the bench. He’s averaging 17.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 5.4 assists, and his value in this matchup is keeping the Celtics’ offense from dipping when the game turns into long stretches of half-court possessions. If Pritchard wins the non-star minutes, the Suns lose the one window they usually need at home.
Sam Hauser is the Celtics’ spacing test. He’s at 9.2 points and 3.8 rebounds, and his role here is punishing any moment the Suns try to “help and recover” to survive the Celtics’ drive-and-kick game. If Hauser hits early, the Suns’ help rules get tighter, and the rim becomes harder to protect.
Collin Gillespie has to be the Suns’ stabilizer with so many guards unavailable. He’s averaging 13.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, and 4.7 assists, and the job is keeping the offense organized enough to actually get into its shot volume plan. If Gillespie can generate paint touches that turn into corner threes, the Suns can make this feel like a one-possession game late.
Jalen Green is the Suns’ volatility button. He’s averaging 13.3 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 2.4 assists, and the Suns need him to turn a few empty possessions into real scoring bursts, especially with the first options sidelined. If Green can’t score efficiently, the Suns end up trying to win with defense and second chances alone, which is a brutal ask against this opponent.
Prediction
I’m taking the Celtics. The Suns can keep this ugly with a top-five points-allowed profile and elite turnover pressure, but the Celtics’ edge is the part that usually decides games like this: elite offensive efficiency plus top-tier three-point volume. Over 48 minutes, that math wins more often than it loses, especially with the Suns missing so much shot creation.
Prediction: Suns 109, Celtics 121
