This is the makeup date from the January 25 postponement, and it drops two battered teams into the same spot. The Bucks host the Mavericks at Fiserv Forum on Tuesday, March 31, at 8:00 p.m. ET.
The Bucks are 29-45 and 11th in the East, while the Mavericks are 24-51 and 13th in the West. The Bucks are 16-21 at home, and the Mavericks are 10-26 on the road.
The recent form is ugly on both sides. The Bucks lost 127-113 to the Clippers on Sunday and have dropped four straight. The Mavericks got drilled 124-94 by the Timberwolves on Monday and have lost six of their last seven.
They have only played once this season, and the Bucks took that one 116-114 on November 10, so they lead the series 1-0.
For the Bucks, Ryan Rollins has put up 17.0 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 5.6 assists, while Myles Turner has added 11.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 1.5 blocks.
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg has delivered 20.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, and Brandon Williams has chipped in 12.8 points, 2.9 rebounds, and 3.9 assists.
The game does not carry playoff weight, but it does give one side a chance to look a little more functional than it has over the last two weeks.
Injury Report
Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Out (left knee hyperextension bone bruise)
Thanasis Antetokounmpo: Out (left calf strain)
Kevin Porter Jr.: Out (right knee synovitis)
Bobby Portis: Out (left wrist sprain)
Gary Harris: Questionable (personal reasons)
Kyle Kuzma: Probable (right Achilles tendinopathy)
Ryan Rollins: Probable (left hip flexor soreness)
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Naji Marshall: Out (illness)
P.J. Washington: Out (illness)
Caleb Martin: Out (right plantar fascia strain)
Marvin Bagley III: Out (left shoulder impingement)
Klay Thompson: Doubtful (rest)
Moussa Cisse: Questionable (G League two-way)
John Poulakidas: Probable (G League two-way)
Tyler Smith: Probable (G League two-way)
Why The Bucks Have The Advantage
The best Bucks case starts with shooting. They are second in the league in three-point percentage at 38.6%, and that is still the cleanest offensive trait in this matchup. Even with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Kevin Porter Jr. out, the Bucks can keep the floor spread with Turner, AJ Green, Kyle Kuzma, and Rollins. Against a Mavericks team that is just 27th in three-point percentage at 34.4%, that shooting gap is real.
There is also a pace angle that works in their favor. The Bucks are 17th in pace at 97.7, while the Mavericks are third at 101.6. That gives the Bucks a clear route. They do not want this game sprinting from end to end, because that is where Flagg becomes harder to contain and where the Mavericks can generate easier rim pressure before the defense gets set. If the Bucks flatten the tempo and turn this into a half-court shooting game, the floor shifts toward their strengths.
The Mavericks also give the Bucks some openings on the defensive end. The Mavs are 24th in points per game at 113.6, 29th in offensive rating at 110.7, and 24th in net rating at minus-5.3. Those are not the numbers of a group that can consistently punish a shaky defense. If the Bucks force the Mavericks to score late in the clock instead of early in transition, they have not shown enough efficiency to trust.
The last point is simpler. The Mavericks are 10-26 on the road and are coming off a 30-point home loss one night earlier. The Bucks have been poor too, but at least they are at home, with a day to reset, against a team that has looked thin and uneven for weeks. In a game between two flawed rosters, that scheduling edge carries some weight.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The strongest Mavericks argument is on the glass. They are 11th in rebounds at 44.6 per game, while the Bucks are 29th at 40.5. That gap can decide a game like this because neither side has elite offensive talent available. The Mavericks do not need to be prettier. They need more shots, more putbacks, and more chances to keep the Bucks from winning a low-possession game with three-point shooting alone.
There is another direct matchup edge in how the Mavericks guard the arc. The Mavericks have allowed the lowest opponent three-point percentage in the league at 33.9%. That is a big number in this specific matchup because the Bucks’ clearest offensive strength is their own outside shooting. If the Mavericks take away the clean catch-and-shoot looks and force the Bucks to score inside without Giannis and Portis, the Bucks do not have many reliable counters left.
The Mavericks also play faster and can turn this into a more chaotic game. The Mavericks are third in pace, and the Bucks are 17th. That matters because the Bucks are already short on creators, and the faster the game gets, the more likely it is that Flagg and Williams can attack a defense that owns the fourth-worst defensive rating in the league at 119.1. The Mavericks are not an efficient offense overall, but this is a matchup where speed can cover some of that.
The bigger team profile is not flattering on either side, but the Bucks have quietly been worse. They are 29th in scoring at 110.4, 25th in offensive rating at 112.6, 29th in rebounds, and 25th in net rating. Add the injury list on top of that, and it is easy to see why they have lost 14 of their last 17. The Mavericks are far from stable, but they are facing a roster that has been even less convincing.
X-Factors
AJ Green is a real swing piece for the Bucks in this matchup. He has put up 9.6 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 1.9 assists while shooting 40.5% from three. With so much creation missing, the Bucks need Green to punish help defense and turn kick-out passes into points. If he hits open threes early, the floor opens up for everyone else. If he is quiet, the offense can get cramped fast.
Kyle Kuzma is the other Bucks name to watch. He has produced 14.8 points, 5.8 rebounds, and 2.4 assists this season. The Bucks need one forward who can create a shot without a perfect setup, especially with Giannis out. If Kuzma attacks closeouts, gets to his mid-range spots, and gives them secondary scoring, the Bucks have a better chance to survive their half-court possessions.
Daniel Gafford can tilt this game for the Mavericks with energy plays. He is at 9.7 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks while shooting 66.3% from the field. The Bucks are one of the weakest rebounding teams in the league, so Gafford has a clear path to impact this game on the glass and around the rim. If he creates second chances and finishes inside, the Mavericks gain a big edge in the possession battle.
Max Christie is another important one for the Mavericks. He has averaged 12.4 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 2.7 assists this season while shooting 36.8% from three. The Mavericks need his wing scoring because the Bucks can still load up on the main creators when the offense slows down. If Christie knocks down catch-and-shoot looks and adds one or two strong drives, the Mavericks become much harder to key on.
Prediction
The Mavericks are the pick. Neither side looks trustworthy, but they have the cleaner route to winning this specific matchup. The Mavericks are 11th in rebounding, third in pace, and first in opponent three-point percentage. The Bucks, meanwhile, are 29th in scoring, 29th in rebounding, and 25th in offensive rating, and now they are missing Antetokounmpo, Porter, and Portis again. That leaves too much on Rollins and outside shooting.
Prediction: Bucks 109, Mavericks 113
