The Bucks host the Mavericks at Fiserv Forum on Sunday, January 25, with tip set for 6:00 PM.
The Mavericks enter 19-27 (12th in the West), and the Bucks are 18-26 (11th in the East). The Mavericks have struggled away from home (5-14), while the Bucks are 9-12 at Fiserv Forum.
The Mavericks are coming off a 116-110 loss to the Lakers, a game where they let a big fourth-quarter lead slip. The Bucks just dropped a 102-100 game to the Nuggets, and the bigger storyline is Giannis Antetokounmpo now being out with a right calf strain.
This is the second meeting of the season. The Bucks already took the first matchup 116-114, so the Mavericks are trying to avoid getting swept in a rare two-game season set.
Even with all the injuries, the names still matter. Cooper Flagg is at 18.8 points, 6.4 rebounds, and 4.1 assists, and Max Christie is at 13.3 points, 3.5 rebounds, and 2.2 assists.
Giannis was posting 28.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 5.6 assists before the calf issue, while Kevin Porter Jr. has been at 16.8 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 7.4 assists but is also out.
Note: the game today has been postponed due to weather conditions not allowing the Mavericks to fly, per ESPN.
Injury Report
Bucks
Giannis Antetokounmpo: Out (right calf strain)
Alex Antetokounmpo: Out (G League – Two-Way)
Kevin Porter Jr.: Out (right oblique muscle strain)
Taurean Prince: Out (neck surgery)
AJ Green: Questionable (illness)
Gary Trent Jr.: Probable (illness)
Mavericks
Anthony Davis: Out (left finger sprain)
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Dante Exum: Out (right knee surgery)
Klay Thompson: Doubtful (left knee; injury management)
Cooper Flagg: Doubtful (left ankle; injury management)
Max Christie: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Brandon Williams: Questionable (right knee soreness)
Miles Kelly: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
Ryan Nembhard: Probable (G League – Two-Way)
Why The Bucks Have The Advantage
This starts with shot profile. The Bucks are one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league this season (39.2% from three), and that’s the cleanest way to survive a night without your primary downhill force. Without Giannis and Kevin Porter Jr., they’re not going to consistently win with rim pressure, so they have to win with spacing, quick decisions, and volume makes.
The matchup also sets up for a simpler defensive plan. The Mavericks’ injury list is long, and if Flagg and Thompson are limited or out, the Mavericks’ half-court scoring becomes far more dependent on role creation. That’s where the Bucks can load the paint, stay attached to shooters, and make every possession feel like work.
And while neither team has been elite defensively overall, the Mavericks’ defense has been leaky all year (116.5 points allowed per game). If the Bucks get even a normal shooting night, they can create separation without having to grind out perfect possessions.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ case is built around winning the “effort possessions” and making this game uncomfortable. The Bucks have been vulnerable defensively without Giannis as a backline eraser, and they’ve allowed 115.5 points per game overall, which leaves openings for the Mavericks to stay in it even if they don’t shoot lights out.
There’s also a path on the glass. The Bucks are not a strong rebounding team by volume (40.6 rebounds per game), and the Mavericks can keep themselves afloat by manufacturing extra chances, second shots, and free-throw trips.
Finally, the Mavericks’ best chance is to turn this into a game of discipline. Shorten the game, avoid live-ball turnovers that lead to runouts, and force the Bucks to beat them with a long sequence of half-court jumpers rather than quick-hit threes in transition.
X-Factors
For the Bucks, Myles Turner is a massive swing because he changes what both teams are allowed to do in the paint. He’s at 12.4 points and 5.4 rebounds, and his rim protection plus spacing makes it harder for the Mavericks to pack the lane or win with pure physicality. If Turner controls the interior without fouling, the Bucks can play more aggressive at the arc and still feel covered behind the ball.
Gary Trent Jr. is the other key piece because this game is going to come down to who converts open looks. He’s at 8.3 points per game and shooting 35.6% from three, and with creators missing, his job is simple: punish “help off the wing” decisions. If Trent hits early, the Mavericks’ help defense becomes a liability.
Bobby Portis matters too, because he’s the easiest way for the Bucks to survive the non-Giannis reality. He’s at 13.1 points and 6.4 rebounds, and his ability to score without the offense being perfectly organized is critical in games like this. If Portis wins his minutes, the Bucks can keep their rotation stable instead of chasing offense.
For the Mavericks, P.J. Washington is the pressure point. He’s at 14.6 points and 7.4 rebounds, and his value is that he can punish smaller lineups, crash for extra possessions, and hit enough jumpers to keep the floor spaced. If Washington owns the glass, the Mavericks can keep this within a possession or two deep into the fourth.
Brandon Williams becomes a major lever if the Mavericks are short-handed in the backcourt. He’s at 12.4 points and 3.7 assists, and the question is whether he can keep the offense connected for extended stretches without turning it into a forced-shot game. If he can generate paint touches and clean kick-outs, the Mavericks can keep producing decent looks even when the first action stalls.
Prediction
This projects as a messy game, but I trust the Bucks’ shooting profile at home more than I trust the Mavericks’ ability to hold up defensively for 48 minutes with this injury context. If the Mavericks are missing Flagg and Thompson, the creation burden gets heavy fast, and that’s when the Bucks’ spacing can break the game open.
Prediction: Bucks 113, Mavericks 109
