The Suns host the Mavericks at Mortgage Matchup Center on Tuesday, February 10, at 10:00 PM ET.
The Suns are 31-22 (7th in the West). The Mavericks are 19-33 (12th in the West).
The Suns have been solid at home (17-9). The Mavericks have struggled overall, and the standings reflect it.
Last time out, the Suns lost to the 76ers 109-103 on Saturday. The Mavericks are coming in on a seven-game losing streak, most recently falling 138-125 to the Spurs on February 7.
This is the first meeting of the season.
For the Suns, Devin Booker sets the tone (25.3 points, 4.0 rebounds, and 6.3 assists), and Dillon Brooks has quietly been a real scoring piece (21.1 points).
For the Mavericks, Cooper Flagg is the whole bet right now (20.3 points, 6.6 rebounds, and 4.2 assists), and the roster context around him is rough with key injuries still stacked up.
This one matters because the Suns are sitting in the middle of the West pack, while the Mavericks are running out of runway fast as they regroup from the Anthony Davis trade.
Injury Report
Suns
Grayson Allen: Out (right knee sprain)
Cole Anthony: Out (not with team)
Isaiah Livers: Out (left shoulder sprain)
Mavericks
Kyrie Irving: Out (left knee surgery)
Dereck Lively II: Out (right foot surgery)
Ryan Nembhard: Doubtful (G League – Two-Way)
Klay Thompson: Questionable (rest)
Why The Suns Have The Advantage
Start with the profile: the Suns are 18th in scoring at 113.6 points per game, but the efficiency spine is real. They’re shooting 46.0% from the field (25th) and 36.5% from three (10th). That combo matters when you’re not living at the rim.
The volume is also a lever. The Suns are 18th in three-point attempts (40.0 per game), so they’re not just hot-and-cold on low volume. They’re structurally built to get a lot of threes up, and that’s exactly the kind of shot profile that can bury a shorthanded team if it falls early.
The cleanest matchup edge is what happens when the Mavs can’t set their defense. The Suns don’t play at some extreme pace, but they do generate enough quick-hitter looks because they can space multiple positions and keep the ball moving to the weak side when the first action stalls. Even in the loss to the 76ers, the problem wasn’t “no looks,” it was the misses.
There’s also a very specific “why tonight” angle from the Suns’ side: they went 9-of-39 from three (23.9%) in their last game. Their season three-point number is 36.5%. That gap usually corrects, and this is not the opponent you want to face if the regression hits immediately.
Why The Mavericks Have The Advantage
The Mavericks’ best argument is that, even in a rough season, their offense can be competent when the shooting holds. They’re 23rd in scoring at 114.2 points per game, but the splits are playable: 47.0% from the field, 34.5% from three, and 74.7% at the line. If they’re not turning it over, they can still string together real stretches.
The more interesting edge is on the glass. The Mavericks are at 45.1 rebounds per game, which is a real number, and it’s one way to stay alive even when you’re down many pieces. Extra possessions are the simplest substitute for missing star-level shot creation.
This is also where the injuries flip the logic a bit. Without Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, potentially Klay Thompson, and more rotation pieces, the Mavericks are not trying to win with fireworks. They’re trying to win with structure, size, and enough shooting to survive. If the Suns have another cold night from three, they can hang around long enough to make the fourth quarter a coin flip.
X-Factors
Royce O’Neale is the Suns’ swing spacer because he’s the guy who decides whether the Mavericks can load up on Booker without paying for it. He’s at 10.3 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 2.9 assists this season. If O’Neale hits early catch-and-shoot threes and keeps the ball moving, the Mavericks can’t play the “show bodies, survive rotations” style for long.
Mark Williams is the Suns’ possession piece. He’s giving them 12.2 points and 8.2 rebounds, and his value is simple: screens, rim pressure, and cleaning up misses so the Suns don’t live and die on jumpers.
For the Mavericks, Marvin Bagley has to matter again. He just went for 16 points and 12 rebounds in his first real impact moment with this group, and with Dereck Lively II out, this team needs frontcourt production that isn’t theoretical. If Bagley can turn missed shots into points and keep the Suns honest inside, it changes how aggressively the Suns can stay hugged to shooters.
Klay Thompson (if active) is the gravity piece because it’s the easiest way to widen the floor without a heavy dribble-creation night. Thompson’s line sits at 14.0 points, 3.4 rebounds, and 2.0 assists, with 39.1% from three on 7.7 attempts. If he’s available and making movement threes, it forces the Suns to stay attached and opens airspace for everybody else.
Prediction
I’m taking the Suns. The standings gap is real, but the matchup logic is cleaner than that: the shot profile is stable, they’re 10th in three-point percentage (36.5%), and they’re back home where they’ve been strong (17-9).
Prediction: Suns 116, Mavericks 102
