The Washington Wizards host the Detroit Pistons at the Capital One Arena on Thursday, March 19, at 7:00 p.m. ET.
The Wizards are 16-52 and 14th in the East with an 11-24 home record, while the Pistons are 49-19 and No. 1 in the East with a 23-11 road record.
The Pistons took the 130-117 win in their Tuesday night clash behind a career-high 36 points from Jalen Duren, also earning a 2-1 lead in the season-series.
The Pistons are led by Cade Cunningham, who’s averaging 24.5 points, 5.6 rebounds, and 9.9 assists this season, but will miss significant time after suffering a collapsed lung. Duren has had a fantastic season as the Pistons’ starting center, averaging 19.0 points and 10.6 rebounds in a Conference-leading season for Detroit.
The Wizards are without their recently acquired stars, Trae Young and Anthony Davis. In their absence, Alex Sarr would be the No. 1 option, averaging 16.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 2.0 blocks this season, but he is questionable for the game. Bub Carrington should be the lead guard, averaging 10.0 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4.5 assists in his third NBA season.
This is a clear mismatch between two teams on the opposite ends of the standings in March, but upsets are a part-and-parcel of the NBA. Let’s analyze this Eastern Conference clash.
Injury Report
Wizards
Bilal Coulibaly: Questionable (heel)
Alex Sarr: Questionable (toe)
Trae Young: Out (quad)
Anthony Davis: Out (finger)
Kyshawn George: Out (elbow)
D’Angelo Russell: Out (not injury related)
Cam Whitmore: Out (venous condition)
Leaky Black: Out (ankle)
Pistons
Cade Cunningham: Out (back, collapsed lung)
Isaiah Stewart: Out (calf)
Wendell Moore Jr.: Out (two-way)
Why The Wizards Have The Advantage
The only advantage on the Wizards’ side is the absence of Cade Cunningham. Outside of that, they’ll have to rely on shot variance and the unpredictability of their roster to mount a huge upset.
Statistically, the Wizards are generally one of the worst teams in the NBA. They’re 25th in points scored (112.8), 23rd in rebounding (42.7), 24th in assists (25.0), and 21st in steals (7.8). The only area where they could have an advantage is blocks, as they’re second in the league with 5.8 blocks per game. Unfortunately, the only team better than them at blocked shots is the Pistons (6.4).
The Wizards are a competent three-point shooting team with 36.4 three-point attempts a game, converted at a 35.7%. This makes them decidedly middle-of-the-road, so a hot shooting night is their best bet at pulling off a David vs. Goliath win here. That, and the absence of an MVP candidate on the other side.
Why The Pistons Have The Advantage
The Pistons have been one of the best teams in the NBA this season, so they have an advantage across the board. Outside of their league-leading blocks per game that edges out the Wizards, the Pistons are also leading the league in steals per game (10.4) and points in the paint (57.6), while also having the most clutch wins in the NBA this season.
Detroit has the second-best defensive rating (109.2), along with a 116.9 offensive rating, giving them the third-best net rating at +7.8 this season. They’re fifth in fast-break points (18.0), fourth in second-chance points (17.0)
They’re an intimidating defensive unit that forces 20.8 deflections per game and recovers 5.8 loose balls per game. They generate extra possessions and ensure they maximize every possession they have, which has been a great formula for success for the three-time NBA Champions.
Their only flaw as a unit comes from an outside shooting perspective, with 31.4 three-point attempts (27th in the NBA) per game converted at a 34.9% clip (20th in the NBA). But that shouldn’t be a problem against an overmatched Wizards squad, as their advantage across every other facet of the game should cover up their one weakness.
X-Factors
Wizards’ lottery pick Tre Johnson could be a game-changing player in this clash if he gets extended minutes. He’s averaged 12.4 points this season. While he had a rough 11-point (3-12 FG) outing in his last game, he could bounce back with a statement performance. His minutes have been controlled recently as the Wizards have put their tanking efforts into overdrive, but Johnson will be the center of offensive attention outside Carrington when he’s on the court.
Wizards rookie Will Riley has maximized the absence of established stars to prove to the Wizards that he can be a core piece. The 21st pick in the 2025 Draft is averaging 8.8 points and 2.6 rebounds, playing as a swingman. He can attack the basket and be an effective shooter, making him potentially one of the best offensive options this depleted Wizards side can field.
Duncan Robinson is arguably the biggest x-factor the Pistons have in their rotation. He’s averaging 11.8 points on 40.0% from three and 7.0 three-point attempts per game this season. If Robinson gets hot from outside, it’s almost impossible to stop the Pistons. They have an 18-3 record in games where Robinson has hit over four three-pointers, so the Wizards will hope to ensure he stays subdued throughout this game.
Cunningham’s absence should bring a spotlight onto rookie Daniss Jenkins, who’s averaged 14.8 points and 7.0 assists this season in his eight starting opportunities. He’s had success in earlier stints when stepping up in Cunningham’s absence, and the Wizards might be the perfect opponent for him to have another big game after his 14 points and seven assists in Tuesday’s win.
Prediction
The Pistons shouldn’t struggle to pull this win off. They already beat the Wizards comprehensively in their last game, where Cunningham played just five minutes. Just having a player like Duren might mean the Wizards have no adequate response, especially with Sarr’s uncertain status. Unless Carrington and Johnson have a lights-out shooting night and don’t get immediately subbed out because they’re hurting the Wizards’ tank, the Pistons should easily pick up their 50th win of the season.
Prediction: Wizards 111, Pistons 127
