Friday night’s Kings vs. Warriors game at 10 p.m. ET in the Golden 1 Center is the last meeting between these teams, and the season series still gives the home side something to play for.
The Kings are 21-59 and 14th in the West, but they lead the matchup 2-1. The Warriors are 37-43 and hold the 10th spot in the conference.
The Kings are 14-26 at home, while the Warriors are 15-24 on the road. Recent form also adds some context here. The Warriors are coming off a 119-103 loss to the Lakers on Thursday, and the Kings just lost 110-105 to these same Warriors on Tuesday.
So even with both teams dealing with a rough season in different ways, this game still has some clear recent history behind it.
Stephen Curry is still the main name in this matchup. He is averaging 27.0 points, 4.8 assists, and 3.5 rebounds. Brandin Podziemski has given the Warriors 13.7 points, 5.2 rebounds, and 3.8 assists.
For the Kings, Malik Monk is averaging 12.5 points and 3.0 assists, while Maxime Raynaud is at 12.2 points and 7.5 rebounds. Those are the best, healthiest scoring options in this game, and both teams need them because the injury report is clearly heavy.
The game is simple to read. The Kings are at home, and they just played the Warriors close three nights ago. The Warriors have the better guard and the better overall team numbers. But they are also coming in after a loss on Thursday and still have a lot of players on the report. So this does not look like a clean, easy game for either side.
Injury Report
Kings
Zach LaVine: Out (right 5th finger tendon repair)
DeMar DeRozan: Out (right hamstring soreness)
DeAndre Hunter: Out (left eye retinal repair)
Keegan Murray: Out (left ankle sprain)
Domantas Sabonis: Out (left knee meniscus repair)
Russell Westbrook: Out (right toe injury management)
Drew Eubanks: Out (left thumb UCL repair)
Warriors
Jimmy Butler III: Out (right ACL surgery)
Seth Curry: Out (left adductor injury management)
Moses Moody: Out (left patellar tendon surgery)
Quinten Post: Out (right foot injury management)
LJ Cryer: Out (right ankle sprain)
Will Richard: Questionable (bilateral low back strain)
Gui Santos: Questionable (right pelvic contusion)
Charles Bassey: Probable (left ankle sprain)
Stephen Curry: Probable (right knee injury management)
Kristaps Porzingis: Probable (right knee injury management)
Why The Kings Have The Advantage
The first thing for the Kings is the home floor. Their record is bad, but this is still their building, and they already beat the Warriors there once this season, 121-116 back in November. They also had control of long parts of the Tuesday game before they gave it away late. This matchup has not been one-sided. The Kings are 2-1 in the season series, and that alone gives them a reason to believe this can stay close again.
The second point is simple. The Warriors are not coming in fresh. They played last night and lost by 16. Curry rested in that game, but the team still had more injury trouble, and the rotation keeps changing. That is not ideal on the road. The Kings have a lot of injuries, too, but they have at least had one more day since Tuesday. In a game between two hurt teams, rest can help.
There is also a path for the Kings on the glass and in the paint. Raynaud has been productive all year, and he had 17 points and eight rebounds in the Tuesday loss. The Kings do not have many proven scorers left, so they need simple offense. Raynaud gives them that with rolls, putbacks, and finishes near the rim. If the Kings can stay close in rebounds and avoid empty trips, they can make this ugly and low-level enough to have a real chance late.
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The Warriors have the better full-season numbers. Their offensive rating is 114.9, which is 19th in the league. Their defensive rating is 115.4, which is 16th. Their net rating is minus-0.4, which is 18th. Those are not big numbers, but they are still far better than the Kings, who rank 26th in offense, 28th in defense, 29th in net rating, and 30th in three-point percentage. The Kings have had a very hard time scoring well and defending well in the same game.
Curry is the biggest reason to lean toward the Warriors. He just came back after a long injury absence, and even in limited minutes, he changed the Tuesday game. He scored 17 points, hit the game-tying three, and then created the go-ahead shot for Podziemski. This version of the Warriors has many flaws, but the Kings do not have a real answer for Curry when the game gets tight. That is the cleanest edge on the floor.
The other reason is guard play. Podziemski has taken on a bigger role this season, and he scored 20 in the last Kings game. Draymond Green still runs a lot of the offense with 5.5 assists per game. The Kings can compete with effort and energy, but they do not have much shot creation left with DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Russell Westbrook all out. The Warriors are also missing a lot, but they still have more stable guard play and more structure late in games.
X-Factors
Killian Hayes is a big one for the Kings. He is averaging 5.3 points, 2.4 rebounds, and 3.6 assists this season, and he just scored 18 points off the bench in the last game against the Warriors. This team does not have many healthy guards who can settle the offense, so Hayes has to do that job. If he gets into the paint, makes simple passes, and gives the Kings decent shot creation, the home team can stay in the game much longer.
Nique Clifford is another real swing player for the Kings. He is averaging 8.2 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 2.3 assists in 73 games this season. He also scored 18 points against the Clippers a few days ago, which showed he can give the Kings more than just energy minutes. They need wing help badly with so many scorers out. If Clifford defends hard, runs the floor, and hits open shots, the Kings have one more playable piece in a game with very little margin.
Kristaps Porzingis is a strong x-factor for the Warriors. He last played on Sunday against the Rockets, only scored 9 points in 23 minutes before fouling out, but his size can change this matchup because the Kings are missing a lot of frontcourt talent. He gives the Warriors a pick-and-pop big, extra rim protection, and another scorer next to Stephen Curry. If Porzingis stretches the floor and makes the Kings guard him away from the basket, the Warriors’ offense gets much easier.
Draymond Green is the last x-factor on the Warriors’ side. He is averaging 8.4 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 5.5 assists this season, and he had seven assists in the last win over the Kings. This game could get messy because both teams are hurt, and that usually helps Green. He can organize the offense, push the ball after rebounds, and keep the defense in place. If he controls the small details, the Warriors will be in a good spot late.
Prediction
The Kings should have a shot because they are at home and because this matchup has already been close more than once. But the better call is still the Warriors. They have the better team numbers, the better late-game player, and they just beat this same team on Tuesday. It probably will not be pretty. Both teams are hurt. Both teams have weak spots. Still, Curry is the best player in the game, and that is enough for me here.
Prediction: Warriors 113, Kings 107
