The Rockets host the Spurs at Toyota Center on Tuesday, January 20, at 7:00 PM CT.
The Rockets come in at 25-15 as the No. 5 seed in the West, and the Spurs enter 30-13 as the No. 2 seed.
Last time out, the Rockets beat the Pelicans 119-110, and the Spurs beat the Jazz 123-110 to keep their momentum rolling.
They’ve already seen each other once this season, and the Spurs took it 121-110, so the Rockets definitely have the “run it back” energy here.
Kevin Durant is averaging 26.1 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 4.6 assists, and Alperen Sengun is at 21.6 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 6.3 assists.
On the other side, Victor Wembanyama is posting 24.1 points, 11.3 rebounds, and 3.2 assists, while De’Aaron Fox is at 20.4 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 6.0 assists.
This one matters because it’s a real West battle test, the Rockets want to protect home court, and the Spurs want to prove they can still control games even when the opponent has elite shot-making.
Injury Report
Rockets
Steven Adams: Out (left ankle sprain)
Fred VanVleet: Out (right knee ACL repair)
Tari Eason: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Spurs
Devin Vassell: Out (left adductor strain)
Why The Rockets Have The Advantage
The Rockets’ home floor has been a problem for everybody. They’re 14-3 at home, and that’s the kind of split that turns close games into wins just off energy and rhythm.
They also bring the more consistent defensive baseline. The Rockets allow 110.65 points per game, and when you pair that with 49.2 rebounds per game, you’re talking about a team that can win the possession battle without needing a perfect shooting night.)
Offensively, the numbers are sturdy too. The Rockets score 117.1 points per game, shoot 47.8% from the field, and hit 37.0% from three, so the spacing is real around Durant and Sengun.
The matchup angle is simple: if the Rockets keep a body on Wembanyama early and don’t give the Spurs a runway in transition, they can force the Spurs into jump-shot volume, then punish them on the other end with Durant’s shot-making and Sengun’s playmaking.
Why The Spurs Have The Advantage
The Spurs can beat you by playing clean basketball for 48 minutes. They score 118.0 points per game, dish 26.0 assists per game, and they keep turnovers at 13.9, which is exactly how you survive on the road against a good defense.
They also have the “we’ve done this already” card. The Spurs already beat the Rockets 121-110 in the first matchup, and they did it with control, not luck.
And even though this is a tough building, the Spurs travel fine. They’re 14-8 on the road, so they don’t walk into this like tourists.
The other big piece is how the Spurs can bend a defense with Wembanyama’s gravity. If the Rockets over-help, the Spurs can spray it out and keep the ball moving until somebody gets a clean look, and they’re built to live in that “good shot, better shot” world.
X-Factors
Amen Thompson is the Rockets’ chaos button. He’s at 18.6 points, 7.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists, and his pressure on the rim changes how you’re allowed to guard Durant. If he’s consistently turning the corner and forcing rotations, the Spurs’ help gets stretched thin fast.
Jabari Smith Jr. is a huge swing piece because he can decide the math of the game. He’s putting up 15.4 points and 6.9 rebounds, and if his threes fall, the Spurs can’t load up as aggressively on Sengun’s elbow touches or Durant isolations.
Josh Okogie is the “boring but key” one. He’s only at 5.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, and 0.9 assists, but his defensive assignment is everything here, especially if he’s the first guy on Fox for long stretches. If Okogie turns Fox’s night into work, the Rockets’ defense levels up.
For the Spurs, Stephon Castle is the guy who can tilt the whole vibe. He’s averaging 17.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 7.0 assists, and he plays fast without playing sloppy, which is rare. If he wins the pace war against a set Rockets defense, the Spurs’ offense can look effortless.
Julian Champagnie is another key because the Rockets will dare someone besides the stars to hurt them. Champagnie is at 11.2 points and 6.2 rebounds, and he’s hitting 36.7% from three, so those “help off the wing” choices can burn you.
Dylan Harper is the sneaky one off the bench. He’s at 10.6 points, 3.2 rebounds, and 3.5 assists, and if he gives the Spurs real scoring pop in the non-Wembanyama minutes, that’s when the Spurs can steal the game in the middle quarters.
Prediction
I’m taking the Rockets, and it’s mostly the home edge plus the two-way floor. The Spurs are better in the standings, but the Rockets’ 14-3 home record is loud, and I trust Durant to win the late-game shot quality battle in this building.
Prediction: Rockets 118, Spurs 113
