The Warriors host the Raptors at Chase Center on Tuesday, January 20, at 7:00 PM PT.
The Warriors are 25-19 and sitting 8th in the West, and the Raptors are also 25-19, sitting 4th in the East.
Last time out, the Warriors ran through the Heat 135-112 on Monday night. The Raptors just lost to the Lakers 110-93 on Sunday.
These teams already saw each other recently, and the Raptors stole a 141-127 overtime win in that last meeting, the one where the Warriors coughed up a late lead.
Stephen Curry is still putting up 27.4 points, 3.7 rebounds, and 5.1 assists a night, and Brandin Podziemski has been a real swing piece at 12.0 points, 4.4 rebounds, and 3.2 assists while shooting 40.9% from three.
For the Raptors, Brandon Ingram leads the scoring at 21.7 points, 6.0 rebounds, and 3.8 assists, and Scottie Barnes fills up everything at 19.6 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 5.4 assists.
This one matters because the Warriors just lost Jimmy Butler for the entire season, and the injury list is going to decide who actually gets to play their style.
Injury Report
Warriors
Jimmy Butler: Out (right knee ACL tear)
Seth Curry: Out (left sciatic nerve irritation)
Al Horford: Out (left toe injury management)
Draymond Green: Questionable (right ankle sprain)
Will Richard: Questionable (right gluteal strain)
Gui Santos: Questionable (left ankle sprain)
Raptors
RJ Barrett: Out (left ankle sprain)
Collin Murray-Boyles: Out (left thumb contusion)
Jakob Poeltl: Out (lower back strain)
Ja’Kobe Walter: Out (right hip pointer)
Why The Warriors Have The Advantage
The biggest advantage is simple: the Warriors have been money at home. They’re 17-6 in their building, and that kind of split usually shows up when the game gets tight late.
The second thing is the shot math. The Warriors score 116.7 points per game, they hit 16.4 threes per game, and they shoot 36.7% from deep, so if the Raptors give them even a short stretch of clean looks, it turns into a scoreboard problem fast.
And even with the loss of Jimmy Butler last night, the defense has been legit. They’re allowing 113.25 points per game and they sit near the top of the league in defensive rating.
The matchup angle tonight is also nasty for the Raptors because Jakob Poeltl is out. If the Warriors pull the Raptors bigs into space with pick-and-pop, cut behind help, and keep the ball flying, they can turn the paint into a layup line.
Why The Raptors Have The Advantage
The Raptors can win this game by being the steadier offense for 48 minutes. They’re scoring 113.5 points per game, shooting 47.0% from the field, and they’re at 29.4 assists per game, so they can generate quality shots even when the first action gets blown up.
They also play real defense. Their defensive rating sits right with the best teams, and they’re only allowing 112.23 opponent points per game.
And unlike some East teams that fall apart on the road, the Raptors have been solid away from home at 12-9. That matters because the Warriors’ building gets loud, but the Raptors have already shown they can survive the chaos.
The most obvious pressure point is the Warriors’ injury situation. With Butler out and Green questionable, the Raptors can hunt mismatches, keep Curry working on defense, and try to win the non-Curry minutes with structure instead of trading haymakers.
X-Factors
Moses Moody has to be a grown-up scorer for the Warriors in this one. He’s at 10.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, and 1.5 assists this season, and his job is pretty clear: punish closeouts and make the Raptors pay for loading up on Curry. If he gets hot early, the Raptors’ help defense stops feeling so comfortable.
Quinten Post is another swing piece because his spacing can change the whole floor. He’s putting up 8.0 points and 4.0 rebounds while hitting 34.7% from three, and that’s the kind of big who makes it harder to sit in the lane. If Post drags a defender out, Curry’s driving lanes look way cleaner.
Will Richard is sneaky important, especially if he’s available. He’s at 7.3 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 1.3 assists while shooting 37.7% from three, and those minutes can be the difference between “survive” and “win” when Curry sits.
For the Raptors, Immanuel Quickley is the big lever because he sets the tempo. He’s averaging 16.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, and 6.1 assists, and if he turns the game into paint touches and kick-outs, the Raptors can keep scoring even if the threes aren’t falling.
Jamal Shead is the other guard who can tilt the game. He’s at 7.1 points and 5.6 assists, and if he wins the “steady possessions” battle, the Raptors can avoid the live-ball turnovers that fuel Warriors runs.
Gradey Dick is the classic boom-or-bust spacer. He’s at 6.4 points per game, and the Raptors need him to knock down the shots that come from Warriors help and scrambling. If he hits a couple, the Warriors can’t load up as aggressively on Ingram and Barnes.
Prediction
I’m leaning Warriors, mostly because the home edge is real and the Raptors are missing too much size with Poeltl out. The Raptors can absolutely steal it if they control pace and win the non-Curry minutes, but I think the Warriors’ three-point volume breaks the game open at some point.
Prediction: Warriors 120, Raptors 114
